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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

 

By Narayana Krishna

 

HYDERABAD - Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. is expected to report relatively moderate earnings growth on a year-on-year basis for the December quarter due to a fall in overall occupancy rates and a high base. The decline in occupancy is due to capacity additions over the past year, which have lowered utilisation levels compared with the year-ago period.

 

Max Healthcare's total bed capacity crossed 5,700 at the end of December from 5,000 a year ago. The bed additions were on account of a mix of expansion of existing facilities and acquisitions.

 

The healthcare major is expected to report a 24% on-year rise in its consolidated net profit for the December quarter to nearly INR 4 billion, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. The net profit growth will be the lowest in the last three quarters.

 

The company's revenue is projected to see a 34% on-year growth to INR 25 billion, the estimates show. Max Healthcare's net profit is seen falling 21% from the trailing quarter, but net sales are seen rising 17%, according to the estimates. The weak sequential numbers are mainly on account of a fall in hospital bed occupancy rate, as the company added new beds and hospitals during the quarter. The revenue base during the last year was also high due to an increase in hospitalisations due to dengue, analysts said.

 

The highest net profit estimate for the December quarter is nearly INR 4.2 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 3.5 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. The revenue estimates range from a high of nearly INR 26 billion by HDFC Securities to a low of INR 23.7 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Max Healthcare will detail its December quarter earnings Thursday.

 

Brokerages expect moderate to subdued revenue growth for Max Healthcare in the December quarter, largely due to a high base, seasonality, disruptions related to the changes to the goods and service tax, and a slower ramp-up of new bed additions.

 

HDFC Securities estimates an 11–12% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by a steady performance in the existing hospital network and a gradual ramp-up of hospitals commissioned over the past year. Nuvama also pegs revenue growth at 10–11% on year, citing seasonality, insurance-related issues, and changes to GST rates on pharmacy and oncology drugs. In contrast, Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal are more cautious and forecast a low single-digit revenue growth of 4–7% on-year, and a sequential decline of around 5%. This is due to lower occupancies, weaker average revenue per occupied bed from new units, disruptions to cashless insurance, and minimal bed additions during the quarter.

 

Most analysts expect the company's margin to be under pressure due to integration of low-margin acquired hospitals, new bed additions with lower initial occupancies, and disruptions due to changes to insurance norms and the GST rates.

 

Emkay Global expects the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin to contract about 46 basis points on year, while Kotak Securities forecasts a sharper 130-bps decline, citing weaker average revenue per occupied bed, lower occupancies, and limited benefit from Central Government Health Scheme rate hikes.

 

Nuvama expects margins to remain largely stable sequentially, supported by cost control, but still lower on year due to new unit contributions and mix changes.

 

Brokerages broadly expect Max Healthcare's average revenue per occupied bed to remain stable, with modest pressure from the addition of institutional and insurance patients. Average revenue per occupied bed is a key metric to gauge hospital sector companies.

 

Motilal Oswal estimates average revenue per occupied bed at INR 77,400, while Nuvama projects this at INR 77,500, reflecting flat on-quarter performance and a low single-digit on-year growth of about 2% as volume-led growth is likely to offset pricing pressure from GST changes and new unit mix.

 

All five research reports on the company available with Informist have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,320, which is around 28% higher than the stock's closing price on Wednesday.

 

The stock has lost nearly 8% since the announcement of its September quarter earnings. On Wednesday, shares of Max Health ended at INR 1,025.45 on the National Stock Exchange, up 2% from the previous close.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. from seven brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage name	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
HDFC Securities Ltd	25.86	4.20	6.99
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	25.36	4.14	6.85
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	25.31	3.98	6.75
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	23.66	3.95	6.29
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	25.41	3.73	6.46
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	25.19	3.67	6.42
Kotak Securities Ltd	24.36	3.51	6.03
Average	25.02	3.88	6.54

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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