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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – The December quarter consolidated top line and bottom line of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. are likely to be weighed down by a weak performance of its wholly-owned subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover, analysts said. The UK-based luxury carmaker is expected to report lower-than-usual production after a major cyberattack in late August brought its production plans to a grinding halt in September.

 

The automobile major is projected to report a consolidated net loss of INR 31.29 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. Estimates for the company's bottom line for the reporting quarter vary sharply, with the lowest net loss estimate being INR 928 million from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and the highest loss estimate being INR 55.43 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd.

 

In the September quarter, Tata Motors' passenger vehicle business reported a net profit of INR 761.70 billion, driven mainly by a one-time gain of INR 826 billion from the demerger of its commercial vehicle operations, which took effect from October.

 

Tata Motors PV is the only Nifty 200 auto company expected to report a loss for the reporting quarter. The company had reported a net profit of INR 43.67 billion in the year-ago quarter.

 

To enable a like-for-like comparison, Tata Motors PV's net profit and revenue for the year-ago quarter have been calculated from the numbers for the ertswhile undivided Tata Motors. The net profit for the PV business was calculated by deducting its pro rata tax contribution from the PV segment profit before tax. The tax was reduced in proportion to the share of the PV business in the total profit before tax of the undivided company. This calculation was required as under the current disclosure norms, companies are not required to report segment profit after tax. They only report profit before tax.

 

The company's consolidated revenue for the December quarter is pegged at INR 715.70 billion, which would translate to a fall of 24% on year, according to the average of eight estimates. The highest estimate for Tata Motors PV's top line is INR 882.31 billion from Motilal Oswal and the lowest estimate is INR 670.94 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

"Consolidated revenue is likely to plunge 27% YoY owing to production hit at JLR due to cyber attack incident despite robust growth in the India PV division," Nuvama Wealth Management said in a report.

 

JLR STAYS A DRAG

The performance of JLR holds a significant sway over the performance of Tata Motors PV as it contributed roughly 80% to Tata Motors PV's consolidated top line in the September quarter. Due to the halt and drop in production, JLR sales dropped to 59,200 cars in the December quarter, down from 104,427 units in the year-ago quarter and 66,165 units in the September quarter, according to ICICI Securities. The company fared poorly in China in the reporting quarter amid macro-economic headwinds and intense competition, analysts said. JLR operates in China through a 50:50 joint venture with Chery Automobile.

 

In its September-quarter analyst call, the company had said the impact of the cyberattack was expected to spill over into the December quarter as well. "The production losses we have experienced will also impact quite heavily on Q3. It's only in Q4, as our pipeline fill completes that we will return to normal," JLR's Chief Financial Officer Richard Molyneux had said in November.

 

The manufacturing stoppage forced the company to lose production of around 50,000 units in September and October combined. The company has guided for a stronger performance in Oct-Mar compared to the first half of the ongoing financial year, as it is focused on ramping up production and stepping up its engineering intensity.

 

"The cyber (attack), it will hit us also in Q3. So there will be another considerably smaller exceptional charge in Q3. But the big effect on Q3 is going to remain the volume pull through," Molyneux had said, while adding that JLR's plants will be operating at capacity till the end of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar).

 

JLR's earnings before interest and tax margin is expected to fall 15.3% on year to (-)1.2% for the latest quarter because of negative operating leverage, and the appreciation of the pound sterling against the dollar, Kotak Securities said.

 

POSITIVES BACK HOME

In the December quarter, Tata Motors PV's India business reaped the benefit of the full pass-through of the cut in goods and services tax which coincided with the festival season. The Punch maker sold 171,000 cars in the reporting quarter, up 22% on year and 18% on quarter.

 

"In October, we leveraged our robust pipeline to continue our strong performance with 61,000 units of wholesale, which was our highest ever. We also had a blockbuster festive season where we delivered over 1 lakh (100,000) vehicles between Navratri and Diwali, which was a 33% growth over last year," the company's Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Shailesh Chandra had told analysts in November.

 

Tata Motors PV's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the December quarter is projected at INR 16.68 billion, according to the average of five estimates. These five projections are quite wide. The EBITDA projection of INR 51.56 billion by Motilal Oswal is the highest and the forecast of INR 3.69 billion by Nomura Equity Research is the lowest.

 

The Sierra maker will announce its December quarter earnings Thursday. On Wednesday, its shares closed at INR 375.45 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.9%. The stock is down 6% since the company announced its September-quarter earnings.

 

The company's passenger vehicle operations demerged from its commercial vehicle business from Oct. 1 and started trading under the new ticker name Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles from Oct. 24, but retained its place in the benchmark Nifty 50 index.

 

Of the seven research reports on the company available with Informist, four have a ‘sell' or equivalent recommendation with an average target price of INR 351. This is 6% lower than the current market price. Of the remaining three, two have a ‘hold' or equivalent recommendation and one has a ‘buy' or equivalent recommendation.

 

The following are the consolidated Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. from eight brokerages in descending order of the estimate of bottom line in INR billion:

 

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	882.31	-928	51.56
YES Securities (India) Ltd	684.47	-22.08	14.90
ICICI Securities Ltd	691.36	-23.85	4.90
Kotak Securities Ltd	697.22	-32.62	8.38
Nomura Equity Research	710.00	-32.92	3.69
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	690.23	-37.01	N.A.
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	670.94	-45.49	N.A.
HDFC Securities Ltd	699.02	-55.43	N.A.
Average	715.70	-31.29	16.68

End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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