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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026

 

By Pratiksha and Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee soared against the dollar, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years, as India and the US announced the much-awaited trade deal, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods, dealers said. 

 

"The rupee has received the much-needed support it was looking for so many months," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We are in a much better position after the trade deal now. A lot of longs (long dollar positions) have been cut today."

 

The rupee settled at 90.2650 a dollar Tuesday, 1.4% higher from its previous close.

 

The cheer of a cut in reciprocal tariffs was widespread, with almost all Asian currencies rising against the greenback. Supported by improved risk appetite, Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.6% against the dollar on Tuesday. 

 

Soon after US President Donald Trump announced the cut in tariffs, the rupee soared against the dollar in offshore trading. Trump late Monday said India and the US have concluded the much-awaited trade deal under which Washington will cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 25%. The US had imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods in August – a 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% punitive tariff. While Trump did not clarify whether he had scrapped the punitive tariffs imposed on New Delhi for its trade and strategic relations with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X that Indian goods would attract 18% tariffs in the US.  

 

The joy was visible across financial markets, and the 10-year benchmark gilt fell 5 basis points to a low of 6.71%. Benchmark equity indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, rose 2.5?ch Tuesday. This too supported the rupee, dealers said. 

 

As the rupee touched the day's high of 90.0425 per dollar, banks stepped in to purchase the greenback on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies looking to stock up, taking advantage of the attractive levels.

 

However, some market participants said that the positives from the trade deal may fade soon and the Indian unit may start falling again as the pressure on the rupee did not arise from the tariffs alone. "Rupee's past year's depreciation already overshot the tariff-shock adjustment by ~3%, yet three forces continue to weigh on India's capital account - weak growth, unattractive equity valuations, and the AI-gap - pushing rolling 12-month capital flows to multi-year lows," Tanvee Gupta Jain, chief India economist at UBS, said in a note. "Absent RBI smoothing, INR would have been far weaker."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2650	90.4000	90.0425	90.5150	91.5125
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	224.07	227.07	227.07	222.83	238.05

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures, with the one-year tenure hitting a one-month low, as exporters sold forward dollars amid fears of further rupee appreciation, dealers said.

 

The spot rupee soared over 1.4% against the dollar on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump Monday said India and the US have concluded the much-awaited trade deal, under which Washington will cut its reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 25%.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.48%, down from 2.60%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 224.07 paise, against 238.05 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Market participants will watch out for further details and commentary on the US-India trade deal. 

 

Dealers expect importers and oil marketing companies to continue purchasing dollars due to their attractive levels. They also expect the Reserve Bank of India to shore up foreign exchange reserves by purchasing dollars if the rupee appreciates further towards the 90-a-dollar level. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00-90.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.00 and support at 91.00.

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India Rupee: On track for best day in over 8 years on US trade deal joy

 

	AT 1425 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1500	90.4000	90.1300	90.5150	91.5125

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee soared further against the dollar as traders sold dollars to trim their long dollar positions after India and the US Monday announced a trade deal that slashed US tariffs on Indian goods, dealers said. The Indian currency touched a high of 90.1300 during the day, up 1.5% from its previous close and close to its biggest intraday gain in over eight years. 

 

US President Donald Trump Monday said India and the US have concluded the much-awaited trade deal under which Washington will cut its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18% from 25%. The US had imposed 50% tariff on Indian goods in August--a 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% punitive tariff. While Trump did not clarify whether he has scrapped the punitive tariff on India for New Delhi's trade and strategic relations with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X that Indian goods would be subject to 18% tariff by the US.

 

A surge in domestic equities on the back of the trade deal also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. At 1430 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were each up 2.7%.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium down as exporters sell forward dlrs on view rupee to rise more

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1800	90.4000	90.1775	90.5150	91.5125
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	223.60	227.07	227.08	222.83	238.05

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures, with the one-year tenure hitting a one-month low, as exporters sold forward dollars, fearing further appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. "We are seeing some sort of panic recieving due to the spot movement," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Lot of position adjustment is happening."

 

The rupee soared over 1.4% against the dollar on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump Monday said India and the US have concluded the much-awaited trade deal, under which Washington will cut its reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 25%. 

 

While Trump did not clarify whether he has scrapped the 25% punitive tariffs on India for New Delhi's trade and strategic relations with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X that Indian goods would be subject to an 18% tariff by the US. The US had imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in August – a 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% punitive tariff.

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.48%, lower than the previous close of 2.60%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 223.57 paise, against 238.05 paise Monday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 3

 

NEW DELHI – At 1105 IST, the rupee was at 90.3475 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.4000 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.5125 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	91.00	89.80	-
Foreign bank	-	91.20	90.00	89.80
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.80	89.50	89.25
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.80	90.00	89.60

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Most up; risk appetite improves on US-India trade deal

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar on Tuesday as risk appetite improved sharply after US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Washington had agreed to reduce tariffs on India to 18% from 25% imposed last year. The Indian rupee jumped against the dollar, posting its biggest opening gain in over 12 years. 

 

At 1004 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.42, against 97.60 Monday and 97.15 Friday. 

 

The Thai baht was 0.3% higher against the dollar. The currency rose despite pressure after it was announced that the US Treasury has placed Thailand back on its currency monitoring list, suspecting market manipulation. 

 

The South Korean won was up 0.2% against the dollar, tracking sharp gains in local equity indices. The benchmark Kospi was 5% higher on Tuesday after touching record highs on Monday.

 

The Taiwan dollar was 0.1% higher against the dollar. Taiwan's GDP increased at an estimated 8.63% in 2025 from a year earlier, its strongest growth in 15 years, driven by a surge in exports and rising demand for artificial intelligence applications, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said Friday.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was 0.3% higher against the dollar. The offshore Chinese yuan and the Philippines peso were 0.1% higher.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Surges most at open in 12 yrs as India, US agree to trade deal

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3100	90.4000	90.3050	90.5150	91.5125

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee jumped against the dollar, posting its biggest opening gain in over 12 years, after US President Donald Trump Monday said India and the US have concluded the much-awaited trade deal, under which Washington will cut its reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18% from 25%, dealers said. The rupee opened at 90.4000 a dollar on Tuesday, 111 paise higher than its previous close and its biggest opening gain since September 2013.

 

"The trade deal has shored up the rupee greatly," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "I am expecting these gains to stay for now, we may see more positions adjusting and some more rise in rupee."

 

The US had imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods in August – a 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% punitive tariff. While Trump did not clarify whether he has scrapped the 25% punitive tariffs on India for New Delhi's trade and strategic relations with Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a post on X that Indian goods would be subject to an 18% tariff by the US. 

 

A surge in domestic equities on the back of the trade deal, also boosted the Indian currency, dealers said. At 0945 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 2.7?ch.

 

However, market participants expect banks to buy dollars on behalf of importers, in order to take advantage of the relatively lower dollar-rupee rates. They will also be watchful of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India through dollar purchases, they said.

 

"The central bank still carries a sizable net forward short position, which has risen again to around $66.04 billion," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said. "This suggests the RBI is likely to continue buying dollars on dips (in dollar-rupee), thereby limiting sharp one-sided rupee appreciation."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 3

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.50	90.00
State-owned bank	90.60	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.65	90.00
Private-sector bank	91.00	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.10
Foreign bank	91.20	89.80
Brokerage firm	90.65	90.10
Brokerage firm	90.80	90.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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