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Informist, Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026

 

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--IMD: India Jan rainfall 31.5?low normal at 11.7 mm 
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for temperature, rains in February 
--IMD: Jan rainfall in south peninsula 10.9?ove normal at 8.7 mm 
--IMD: Jan rainfall in central India 79.4?low normal at 1.5 mm 
--IMD: Jan rainfall in east, northeast India 86.2?low normal at 2.4 mm 
--IMD: Jan rainfall in northwest India 12?low normal at 29.7 mm 
--IMD:75% chances of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation forming in Feb-Mar 
--IMD: La Nina conditions to persist till February 
--IMD: See India Feb rainfall at 81% of long-period average 
--IMD: Above normal maximum temperatures seen over most of India in Feb 
--IMD: Above normal minimum temperatures seen over most of India in Feb 
--IMD: See below normal cold-wave days in Feb over northwest India 
--IMD: See northwest India Feb rainfall at 78% of long-period average 

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – India is likely to recieve below-normal rainfall in February, at 81% of the long-period average, except in some parts of northwest, east-central, and extreme southern parts of northeast India, the India Meteorological Department said at a virtual press conference Saturday.

 

Most parts of the country are also likely to witness above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the month, with the exception of some regions of south peninsular India, where normal minimum temperatures are expected. Below normal cold-wave days are likely over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India in February, the weather bureau said.

 

Rainfall over northwest India, consisting of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, is expected to be below normal in February, at 78% of the long-period average. Some parts of northwest, east-central, and extreme southern parts of northeast India are expected to witness normal to above-normal rains in February.

 

La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures being below normal over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The bureau said there's a 75% chance of La Nina conditions transitioning into neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Feb-Mar.

 

The rise in maximum temperature is expected because of lower western disturbances or less intense western disturbances, while above-normal minimum temperature indicated that nights can be cloudy. There could still be development of western disturbances, but it will be below-normal, IMD said. The above-normal temperatures could lead to accelerated crop growth and shortening of the duration of rabi crops, particularly in northwest and central India. Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction, the bureau said.

 

Oilseeds and pulses such as mustard, chickpea, and lentil may show early flowering and premature maturity, resulting in poor pod development, reduced seed size, and lower yields. Vegatable crops such as potato, onion, garlic, tomato, cabbage, and peas may be adversely affected during critical stages like tuber initiation, bulb development, flowering, and fruit setting. Elevated temperatures can induce bolting in onion and garlic, reduce tuber bulking in potato, cause flower drop in tomato, and deteriorate cole crops, thereby lowering yield and market value, it said.

 

In January, the country received 31.5?low-normal rains at 11.7 millimetres. Rainfall in northwest India was 12?low normal at 29.7 mmm while in southern peninsula, it was 10.9?ove-normal at 8.7 mm, mainly because of heavy showers in Tamil Nadu. Rainfall in central India was 79.4?low normal at 1.5 mm and 86.2?low normal at 2.4 mm in east and northeast India, IMD said.  End

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati and Afra Abubacker

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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