More Stories

Informist, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

 

By Pratiksha and Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar for the second day in a row on persistent dollar purchases by banks on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, dollar sales by state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India prevented the Indian unit from falling below the psychologically crucial 92-per-dollar level, they said.

 

"They are preventing 92 (a dollar), otherwise it could have fallen more," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Demand (for dollars) from FPIs is just not going down, which is pushing the pair (dollar-rupee) up."    

 

The rupee hit a record low of 91.9950 a dollar in the last leg of the day, just shy of the 92 a dollar level, and settled at 91.9825 on Friday. The Indian unit had ended at 91.9550 on Thursday.

 

The rupee declined 2.4% against the dollar in January, posting its worst monthly fall since September 2022. It declined 0.4% against the US unit this week.  

 

The Indian currency began the day slightly higher against the dollar as the RBI likely stepped in to sell dollars, dealers said. The central bank remained active in the currency market for the rest of the day, keeping the Indian unit above the 92-per-dollar level. Some dealers said the RBI bank may have sold around $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the spot market on Friday. 

 

"Maybe the RBI is slowing the pace of depreciation because the rupee has already depreciated a lot," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "In that case, they may try to protect 92.00 for some time."

 

The RBI's active intervention led the Indian unit to shrug off the impact of a rise in the dollar index, dealers said. The dollar index gained after US President Donald Trump said he would soon announce his nominee to head the Federal Reserve. The president was seen favouring former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick, who is seen as more wary of high inflation than the other candidates.

 

Investors widely expect Trump's nominee to the post to cut interest rates after incumbent Jerome Powell's term ends in May. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.64, against 96.16 Thursday and 96.34 Wednesday. Other Asian currencies fell amid a rise in the dollar index, with declines of 0.1%-0.8% against the US unit. The Indian unit, however, emerged as an outperformer amongst its Asian peers. 

 

The Indian unit was constantly pressured by dollar purchases by gold, oil and other importers, who fear further depreciation in the local unit, they said. Sustained FPI outflows from domestic equities are also a big painpoint for the local currency, they said. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.4% lower each Friday. So far in January, FPIs have pulled out almost $3.5 billion from the domestic stock market.

 

"Only RBI's selling has allowed rupee to remain protected from crossing the 92 levels, else there is very good buying of dollars happening on a daily basis," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said. "Rupee on its own cannot gain and needs the support of RBI for an upside movement."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9825	91.9125	91.8400	91.9950	91.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.83	240.45	242.79	237.75	244.10

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower for the second consecutive day as the RBI conducted a second 90-day variable rate repo auction Friday, dealers said. The central bank accepted all bids worth INR 1.12 trillion at the auction. The RBI had earlier held a 90-day VRR auction for INR 250 billion Friday, where it accepted bids with INR 250.04 billion.

 

Dealers said some traders sold dollars for forward delivery as they expected the central bank to carry out buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in near-tenures on Thursday, they said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.61%, lower than the previous close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.83 paise, against 244.10 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) Budget announcements, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Sunday. Market participants will primarily watch out for measures to boost foreign inflows and steps on the basic customs import duty structure. 

 

"India's FY27 Budget to be announced on Feb. 1 Sunday will be more important than usual from an INR FX and rates perspective. Markets will watch closely for whether the central government in India commits to a credible fiscal consolidation path, and this is coming in the broader context of rising debt borrowing requirements from state governments with increasing cash transfer programs at the state level," MUFG Bank said in a note.

 

The local unit may also take cues from movement in the dollar index. Market participants keenly await Trump's announcement of his pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome, expected later on Friday. Developments related to US tariffs will also be closely monitored. 

 

Given the uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid fears of further depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to continue exerting pressure on the rupee. However, most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars to prevent the rupee from falling below the key 92.00 level, especially after the recent strong support.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.70-92.20 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00. 

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr recovers as Trump to announce new Fed chair soon

 

	AT 1612 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3744	1.3815	1.3725	1.3810
EUR/USD	1.1918	1.1975	1.1895	1.1971
NZD/USD	0.6050	0.6081	0.6031	0.6077
AUD/USD	0.6996	0.7055	0.6968	0.7048
USD/JPY	154.1760	154.3840	152.8760	153.0930
USD/CAD	1.3535	1.3553	1.3483	1.3488
EUR/JPY	183.7480	183.8780	183.0480	183.2500
CHF/USD	1.3004	1.3094	1.2986	1.3082
EUR/CHF	0.9164	0.9178	0.9145	0.9149

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index recovered on Friday, recouping some of its weekly losses, after US President Donald Trump said he intended to name his choice to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

 

The president was seen favouring former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick, seen as more wary of high inflation than the other candidates. Investors widely expect Trump's nominee to the post to cut interest rates after incumbent Jerome Powell's term ends in May. At 1558 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.64, against 96.16 Thursday and 96.34 Wednesday.

 

The yen lost the most on Friday, falling 0.7% against the dollar after data showed inflation in Japan was lower than expected. A government report released earlier Friday showed the headline Consumer Price Index in Tokyo – Japan's capital city – fell to 1.5% in January from 2.0% a month ago, its weakest reading since February 2022.

 

The euro was down 0.4% against the dollar despite stronger than expected GDP data from Germany. The German economy expanded 0.3% in Oct-Dec, following a 0% print in the trailing quarter, according to the preliminary data published by Destatis on Friday. The market forecast was for 0.2% growth in the period.

 

The pound sterling was down 0.5% against the dollar. The Bank of England is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% at its next meeting on Feb. 5, according to a poll by Reuters. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Tad up as RBI actively sells dollars; importers' dlr buys weigh

 

	AT 1345 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9025	91.9125	91.8400	91.9625	91.9550

 

NEW DELHI - The rupee was slightly higher against the dollar as state-owned banks persistently sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. However, banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"The only seller (of dollars) in the market is RBI. They are protecting the figure (92.00) actively," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There is no other genuine seller in the market".

 

Dealers said the central bank has been actively selling dollars in the spot market since morning to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 92-per-dollar level. However, gold, oil and other importers have been buying dollars, fearing depreciation in the local unit, they said. The rupee has depreciated almost 2.3% against the dollar so far this month, hitting a lifetime low of 91.9925 on Thursday. 

 

Continued FPI outflows from domestic equities are also a painpoint for the local currency, they said. At 1345 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.6%. So far in January, FPIs have pulled out almost $3.5 billion worth of funds from domestic stock market. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.70 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Forward premium falls as RBI announces 2nd 90-day VRR auction

 

	AT 1320 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9000	91.9125	91.8400	91.9625	91.9550
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	238.29	240.45	242.79	237.75	244.10

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell for the second consecutive day after the Reserve Bank of India announced it would conduct a second 90-day variable rate repo auction from 1300 IST to 1330 IST Friday for INR 2 trillion, dealers said.

 

"The recieving is primarily because of the second VRR auction, which is again a 90-day one," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We are also expecting RBI to recieve. They are pretty active in spot." The RBI held a 90-day VRR auction for INR 250 billion earlier Friday. The central bank received bids worth INR 950.62 billion at the first 90-day VRR auction and allotted INR 250.04 billion.

 

Dealers said some traders sold dollars for forward delivery as they expect the central bank to carry out buy-sell swaps to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in near-tenures on Thursday, they said.

 

On Friday, the RBI likely sold dollars in the spot market actively to prevent the rupee from falling past the psychologically-important 92-per-dollar mark, dealers said. The rupee fell to a low of 91.9625 a dollar in the spot market on Friday. 

 

At 1320 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.59%, lower than the previous close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 238.29 paise, against 244.10 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 30

 

NEW DELHI – At 1106 IST, the rupee was at 91.9350 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.9125 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.9550 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.20	92.00	91.50	-
Private-sector bank	92.30	92.00	91.50	91.20
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.50	91.45	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.20	92.00	91.20	91.00

 

(Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Steady as RBI's likely dollar sales offset rise in dollar index

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9375	91.9125	91.8625	91.9375	91.9550

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was broadly steady against the dollar as the impact of a rise in the dollar index was offset by state-owned banks' dollar sales, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The RBI likely sold dollars to ensure the Indian currency does not fall past the psychologically-crucial 92-per-dollar level, they said.

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose Friday after US President Donald Trump said he would soon announce his nominee to head the Federal Reserve and ‌due to optimism that Washington would avert a government shutdown. The president was seen favouring former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick, seen to be more wary of high inflation than the other candidates. Investors widely expect Trump's nominee to the post to cut interest rates after incumbent Jerome Powell's term ends in May. At 0945 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.59, against 96.16 Thursday and 96.34 Wednesday. 

 

A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Most Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the US unit, with the Thai baht being the worst hit. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0945 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.5%. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.70 and 92.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dollar index up; Thai baht falls 0.4%

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar as the dollar index rose Friday after US President Donald Trump said he would soon announce his nominee to head the Federal Reserve and ‌due to optimism that Washington would avert a government shutdown. The president was seen favouring former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as his pick, seen to be more wary of high inflation than the other candidates. Investors widely expect Trump's nominee to the post to cut interest rates after incumbent Jerome Powell's term ends in May. 

 

At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.59, against 96.16 Thursday and 96.34 Wednesday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. 

Both the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht fell 0.4% against the dollar, the most among their Asian peers. The South Korean won was down 0.3% against the dollar after the US Treasury Thursday said recent depreciation in the South Korean won was not in line with the Asian ‌country's strong economic fundamentals. "Depreciation pressures on the won were acute in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the central bank reduced ‌its policy rate in November and amid the onset of domestic political instability," said the report. 

 

The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar. Minutes of the latest meeting showed Thursday Taiwan's central bank board members were confident about the island's economic growth but some raised concerns about an AI bubble and risks related to the booming stock market. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% against the dollar while, bucking the trend, both the Chinese yuan and Phillipine peso were flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 30

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.20	91.70
State-owned bank	92.00	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.10	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.20	91.80
Foreign bank	92.00	91.70
Brokerage firm	92.25	91.80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.