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Informist, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

MUMBAI – Several international climate models are showing early signs of El Nino developing in 2026 due to the warming of temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, private weather agency Skymet said. Latest forecast data shows the possibility of El Nino in the second half of 2026, which is likely to pick up strength in the middle of the southwest monsoon in India, and peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, the weather agency said. This is likely to affect the quantum of rainfall India receives between June and September, it said.

The ongoing La Nina event has begun to break down across the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is expected to continue dissipating till early spring, the agency said. This is likely to be followed by neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions during the southern months, after which an El Nino event is expected, it said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

"More than a full-blown El Nino, what is more worrisome is an evolving El Nio, which has a 60% chance of causing "below-normal" rainfall," the weather agency said. An evolving El Nino can delay the arrival of the southwest monsoon and subsequently affect the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the monsoon. Typically, an evolving El Nino also leads to an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves.

An evolving El Nino adversely affected the southwest monsoon in 2014 and 2018. In 2023, El Nino developed in June and persisted for an extended period of 11 months, which also led to 2024 being the warmest year on record, the weather agency said. Deficient rainfall and above-normal temperatures during these months led to a fall in the total agricultural output in 2024.

The weather agency also noted a persistent rise in global temperatures, which has raised climate variability and affected the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle as well. Frequent occurrences of El Nino and La Nina have become the new normal, with India witnessing four El Nino and five La Nina events since 2014, the weather agency said. This is against their normal frequency of occurring once every 2–7 years, the agency said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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