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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

By Eshitva Prakash

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to remain range-bound in the run-up to the Union Budget as analysts do not expect major policy changes on Sunday. The government is likely to remain tight-fisted about expenditure, analysts said. However, a positive surprise, particularly regarding capital expenditure or consumption, could boost market sentiment. Persistent selling by foreign portfolio investors amid a deteriorating rupee is likely to limit any gains, analysts said.

The Nifty 50 settled at 25418.90 points, up 76.15 points or 0.3%. The 50-stock index is expected to face resistance at 25500 and find support at 25200, Rupak De, a technical analyst at LKP Securities, said. "While we cannot say that a trend reversal (negative to positive) is underway, there are chances of a slight recovery in the markets," he said. Among other worries, the spat between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a concern for global equity markets.

The Indian government does not have much room to spend in this Budget, said Rohit Srivastava, a market strategist and founder of Indiacharts. Within this limited headroom, a few sectors such as defence and data centres may see investment, he said. "A lot of global spending increase is expected for defence, especially in parts like Europe, and so there's a chance that this demand will also carry forward in our country," he said. The analyst sees no meaningful impact of the Union Budget on the market in the medium-term, given that the government continues its policy of fiscal consolidation. 

While the India-European Union trade finalisation may have supported market sentiment, the benefits from the deal are still far off, which means the near-term impact is not enough to soothe investor worries about the delay in the India-US trade deal finalisation. There are also concerns that the India-EU trade deal might affect India's prospects of securing a favourable deal with the US.

"We have put 25% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. "Guess what happened last week? The Europeans signed a trade deal with India," he said. "The Europeans are on the front line of the Ukraine-Russia war... so, the Europeans have been funding the war against themselves," he said.

The depreciation in the rupee has added to the cautious mood, after the domestic currency hit an all-time low of nearly INR 92 per dollar in early trade, pressured by steady dollar demand and a subdued global environment, Siddhartha Khemka, head of research of wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note. Overall, markets are expected to remain range-bound, with stock-specific action likely to dominate in the run-up to the Budget, the analyst said.

Among several other earnings slated for Friday, investors keenly await the results of NTPC, Powergrid Corp. of India, Bajaj Auto, and Nestle India. Bajaj Auto's revenue and profit for the December quarter are expected to get a boost from higher exports, a weaker rupee, and increased sales of motorcycles with an engine capacity of over 125 cubic centimetres, according to brokerages. The company's net profit for the December quarter is expected to grow 25% on year to INR 26.33 billion, according to brokerage estimates.

Higher domestic volumes and exports are expected to drive a low-double-digit on-year rise in Nestle India's top line for the December quarter. The fast-moving consumer goods major's bottom line for the December quarter is expected to rise around 6% on year to INR 7.36 billion, according to brokerage estimates.  End

Edited by Saji George Titus

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