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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

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--EconSurvey: CPI base yr revision warrants careful study of price dynamics 
--EconSurvey: CPI base yr revision to impact inflation assessment 
--CEA: Benign inflation trend expected to continue in FY27 
--EconSurvey: Inflation likely to rise FY27, unlikely to be a concern 
--EconSurvey: Rupee depreciation could pave way for imported inflation 
--EconSurvey: Food inflation seen at moderate levels in upcoming months 
--EconSurvey: Need to monitor core inflation trajectory 
--EconSurvey:Inflation outlook benign, supported by pass-through of GST cuts 
--EconSurvey: Inflation outlook benign, supported by supply-side conditions 
--CEA: Benign inflation trend expected to continue in FY27

 

NEW DELHI – India's inflation is likely to rise in the next financial year but it may not be a concern on account of favourable supply-side conditions and the pass-through effect of goods and services tax rate rationalisation, the Economic Survey for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), released Thursday, said. India's retail inflation averaged 1.3% in Apr-Dec, the lowest in the current CPI series.

 

"Looking ahead, the outlook remains favourable, with projections of inflation staying within target ranges, supported by strong agricultural output, stable global commodity prices, and continued policy vigilance," the Economic Survey said. The author of the survey, Chief Economic Adviser to the Government V. Anantha Nageswaran, also reiterated that he expected the benign inflation trend to continue in FY27. The Reserve Bank of India has projected CPI inflation at 2% for FY26, and 3.9% and 4.0% for Apr-Jun and Jul-Sept, respectively. 

 

"However, risks from currency fluctuations, base metal price surges and global uncertainties persist, warranting ongoing monitoring and adaptive policy responses," the survey said. The rupee, which has fallen over 2% in January alone, closed at a record low of 91.9550 on Thursday.

 

The trajectory of India's core inflation also needs close monitoring, as prices of precious metals like gold and silver have reached lifetime highs amid heightened global uncertainty and strong safe-haven demand.

 

Food inflation, on other hand, is likely to stay at moderate levels in the upcoming months. "The below-normal temperature experienced through most of the months in 2025 coupled with above-normal monsoon, which augmented reservoir levels, has favourably influenced kharif harvests, created strong sowing momentum in the ongoing Rabi season and improved the stock position of foodgrains," the survey said

 

The forthcoming rebasing of the CPI series in the coming year will also have implications for inflation assessment and warrant careful interpretation of price dynamics, the survey said. The statistics ministry will also release the CPI with 2024 as the base year from February.   End

 

Reported by Krity Ambey

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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