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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply and ended at a record closing low against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India ensured that the Indian currency did not fall below the psychologically-crucial 92-per-dollar level, they said. 

 

"There is a sense of panic in the market looking at the rupee's behaviour, which is why there is a lot of buying (of dollars)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI's intervention has become really unpredictable, so one can't really say for sure where the rupee goes from here."

 

The rupee hit a record low of 91.9925 a dollar earlier in the day, just shy of the key 92.00 level, and settled at 91.9550 on Thursday. The Indian unit had ended at 91.7825 on Wednesday.

 

The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar as the dollar index recovered from a near four-year low hit on Tuesday, dealers said. The dollar index rebounded after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US has a strong-dollar policy, which means setting the right fundamentals. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday shrugged off the greenback's recent weakness, which sent the dollar index to a near four-year low.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.33, against 96.34 Wednesday and 95.82 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. 

 

However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the RBI likely stepped in by selling dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, before the spot market opened, dealers said. A few minutes before the spot market opened, the rupee was trading around 92.06 in the offshore NDF market. However, it went on to open at 91.9825 in the spot market, thanks to the central bank. 

 

Shortly after opening, the RBI extended its supporting hand to the spot market as well, which it kept in place for the rest of the day to prevent the local unit from falling past the key 92.00 mark, they said. "RBI was very much there to slow the depreciation, but it did not try to change the course of the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The Indian unit was constantly weighed down by continuous dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear further depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. So far this month, the rupee has declined almost 2.3% against the dollar. 

 

Foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also exerted pressure on the domestic currency, they said. So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have net sold over $4 billion from domestic equities.

 

"Despite the equity markets regaining their mojo by being up for three days in succession, the rupee remained under pressure due to selling by FPIs in debt as well as equities though the movement today was limited with a range of 18 paise as RBI was present selling at 92 levels," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.3% higher on Thursday.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9550	91.9825	91.8100	91.9925	91.7825
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	244.10	246.97	251.31	243.53	246.78

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased all early gains and ended lower as the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in near-tenures, they said.

 

Since spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI – a proxy for the liquidity surplus – was INR 677.08 billion Wednesday, down from INR 836.87 billion Tuesday.

 

The one-year forward premium rose earlier in the day as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing the rupee would depreciate further, dealers said. After hitting a high of 2.73?rlier in the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium ended at 2.65% at 1530 IST, slightly lower than the previous close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 244.10 paise, against 246.78 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index, dealers said. Market participants will also be watchful of developments related to US tariffs, dealers said. Given the uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars amid fears of further depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to continue exerting pressure on the rupee.

 

"Until and unless the RBI decisively comes in the market, the rupee will keep falling. There are no other sellers (of dollars) in the market," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. Most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening by selling dollars to prevent the rupee from falling below the key 92.00 level, especially after Thursday's move.

 

India and the US are expected to conclude the ongoing negotiations for the much-touted bilateral trade agreement during the year, the Economic Survey for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) said Thursday. The survey did not specify what "during the year" denotes – FY26, 2026, or FY27.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.50-92.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Euro rises after ECB officials' comments; yen up

 

	AT 1455 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3816	1.3848	1.3794	1.3806
EUR/USD	1.1964	1.1997	1.1953	1.1953
NZD/USD	0.6068	0.6093	0.6045	0.6060
AUD/USD	0.7064	0.7094	0.7021	0.7039
USD/JPY	153.3170	153.4570	152.7730	153.4060
USD/CAD	1.3529	1.3577	1.3510	1.3556
EUR/JPY	183.4360	183.7410	183.0970	183.3700
CHF/USD	1.3032	1.3077	1.3005	1.3010
EUR/CHF	0.9180	0.9194	0.9165	0.9185

 

NEW DELHI – The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar as European Central Bank policymakers Wednesday flagged growing concern over the deflationary effect of its rapid appreciation against the greenback. Policymakers warned that appreciation in the common currency could drag inflation down even as price growth is already set to undershoot the ECB's 2% target. However, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel reiterated that monetary policy was in a "good place" and interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels for an extended period.

 

Meanwhile, Europe's biggest economy Germany Wednesday lowered its growth forecast for this and next year, citing heightened uncertainty around global trade and the fact that economic and fiscal-policy measures have not taken effect as quickly as had been assumed. The government cut its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.0% from 1.3%. GDP growth in 2027 is seen at 1.3%, down from 1.4% expected previously.

 

The yen rose 0.1% against the dollar. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Wednesday denied that the US was intervening in currency markets to support the yen. The Australian dollar was up 0.3%. The pound sterling was also up 0.1%.

 

The Canadian dollar was up 0.2%. The Bank of Canada Wednesday held its policy rate ‌at 2.25%, as had been widely expected. Governor Tiff Macklem said a high level of trade uncertainty made it difficult to predict when and how rates might change next.

 

The dollar index was broadly weak but recovered from the near-four-year low hit Tuesday after Bessent said the US has a strong dollar policy and that means setting the right fundamentals. US President Donald Trump Tuesday had shrugged off the greenback's recent weakness, which sent the dollar index to the near-four-year low.

The US Federal Open Market Committee Thursday left the federal funds target rate range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as had been widely expected. Federal Reserve Chair ‌Jerome Powell signalled a prolonged wait before any further reduction in borrowing costs. At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.22, against 96.34 Wednesday and 95.82 Tuesday. The index had hit a low of 95.55 Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium tad down, erases gains as RBI likely sells fwd dollars

 

	AT 1415 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9350	91.9825	91.8100	91.9925	91.7825
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	244.47	246.97	251.31	244.47	246.78

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium erased all early gains and fell slightly as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in near-tenures, they said.

 

"For a change, RBI is receiving in near tenures," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "They are pretty active in spot today, so some spillover had to happen."

 

The rupee fell sharply to hit a record low of 91.9925 earlier in the day. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market actively to prevent the rupee from falling past the psychologically-important 92-per-dollar mark, dealers said. 

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI – a proxy for the liquidity surplus – was INR 677.08 billion Wednesday, down from INR 836.87 billion Tuesday.

 

The one-year forward premium rose earlier in the day as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee going ahead, dealers said.

 

After hitting a high of 2.73?rlier in the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.66% at 1415 IST, slightly lower from the previous close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 244.47 paise, against 246.78 paise Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Erases some losses as RBI sells dollars; importers' buys weigh

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.8675	91.9825	91.8100	91.9925	91.7825

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased some early losses against the dollar as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The rupee fell sharply to hit a record low of 91.9925 earlier in the day as banks persistently bought dollars for importers and the dollar index rebounded from near four-year-lows, they said. 

 

"We are seeing consistent buying (of dollars) at every dip (in dollar-rupee) but seems like there is active support by RBI as well," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However, I am not sure if 92.00 will happen today or not."

 

The RBI likely persistently sold dollars to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-important 92-per-dollar mark, dealers said. The central bank likely intervened through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the opening of the spot market, they said.

 

Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear further depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. So far this month, the rupee has declined over 2% against the dollar. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.70 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 29

 

NEW DELHI – At 1106 IST, the rupee was at 91.9675 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.9825 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.7825 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	92.00	91.50	-
Private-sector bank	92.30	92.00	91.50	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.50	92.00	91.45	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.20	92.00	91.20	91.00

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls sharply to record low; RBI's intervention prevents 92/$1

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.9250	91.9825	91.9150	91.9925	91.7825

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a record low against the dollar as the dollar index rebounded from the near four-year-low hit on Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US had a strong dollar policy and that meant setting the right fundamentals. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday shrugged off the greenback's recent weakness, which sent the dollar index to a near four-year low. The Indian unit hit a record low of 91.9925 a dollar on Thursday. 

 

At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.11, against 96.34 Wednesday and 95.82 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. Weakness in Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

The Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in through dollar sales in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, before the spot market opened, to ensure the Indian currency does not fall past the psychologically-crucial 92-per-dollar level, dealers said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market as well, they said. 

 

"RBI has shown some intent in protecting 92.00 (a dollar), but I am not sure how long it will hold. There can be strong demand (for dollars) at fix," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.  

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0930 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.80 and 92.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dollar index rebounds from 4-year low

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies declined against the dollar as the dollar index rebounded from the near four-year-low hit on Tuesday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US had a strong dollar policy and that meant setting the right fundamentals. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday shrugged off the greenback's recent weakness, which sent the dollar index to a near four-year low.

 

Bessent also denied that Washington was intervening in currency markets to support the yen after the Japanese currency surged against the greenback last week. The dollar index also gained after the US Federal Open Market Committee Thursday left the federal funds target rate range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as was widely expected.

 

At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.22, against 96.34 Wednesday and 95.82 Tuesday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.4% against the dollar, the most among its peers, whilte the Malaysian ringgit was down 0.3%. The Phillipine peso was down 0.2?ter data released Thursday showed the Philippines economy grew 3% on year in the December quarter, weaker than the downwardly revised 3.9% expansion for the previous quarter. The lacklustre performance of the economy increased odds of another rate cut by the central bank. 

 

Both the Thai baht and Taiwan dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won was up 0.6% against the dollar.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 29

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.30	91.70
State-owned bank	92.20	91.50
Private-sector bank	92.18	91.70
Private-sector bank	92.30	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.25	91.80
Foreign bank	92.00	91.50
Brokerage firm	92.20	91.85
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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