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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

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--EconSurvey: India FY27 GDP growth seen 6.8-7.2% 
--EconSurvey: India medium-term growth potential around 7%
--EconSurvey: GDP grew on structural reforms, policy steps despite US tariff 
--EconSurvey: India now anticipating FY26 real growth rate of over 7% 
--EconSurvey: India to see real growth at or near 7% in FY27 
--EconSurvey: GDP growth nowcast for Q3 at 7%
--EconSurvey: Downside risks to global growth prominent, stability fragile 
--EconSurvey: Balance of risks around growth broadly even 
--EconSurvey: See steady econ growth, need caution not pessimism 
--EconSurvey:Data shows strengthening econ momentum in recent mos on reforms 
--EconSurvey: Farm supply prospects to strengthen farm incomes, rural demand 
--EconSurvey: Domestic demand, investment to gain strength in FY27 
--EconSurvey: GST rate changes to support demand, revenue resilience 
--EconSurvey: Demand resilient, private investment intentions improving 
--EconSurvey: Demand buoyant on GST cuts, softer inflation 
--EconSurvey: Econ policy must focus on supply stability, buffer creation 
--EconSurvey: Need "farm-to-fork" policies to lower overall cost in econ

 

NEW DELHI – The Economic Survey for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), tabled in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman Thursday, has projected India's real GDP growth in FY27 at 6.8-7.2%. It also pegged India's medium-term growth potential at around 7%.

 

This would be lower than the 7.4% growth estimated for FY26 in the government's first advance estimate. Last year, the Economic Survey had pegged GDP growth in FY26 at 6.3-6.8%.

 

Growth in India is expected to remain resilient next year even as the outlook for the global economy remains dim because of trade conflicts, the survey said. Downside risks to global growth are prominent even as fragile stability holds for now, it added. 

 

"For India, these global conditions translate into external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress," the survey said. "Slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions to trade and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment."

 

India faces a 50% tariff on exports to the US even as the two countries negotiate a trade deal. Trade negotiations with the US are expected to conclude during the year, the survey said, which could help reduce uncertainty on the external front. "While these risks remain manageable, they reinforce the importance of maintaining adequate buffers and policy credibility."

 

Growth forecasts were revised downward after the US announced the 50% tariff on India but the economy has expanded at a quicker pace due to a slew of structural reforms and policy measures, the survey said. India's GDP growth rose to a six-quarter high of 8.2% in the September quarter. 

 

Supported by domestic drivers and demand, the balance of risks around India's growth remains broadly even, the survey said. "The outlook, therefore, is one of steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism." 

 

The Survey said that FY27 was expected to be a year of adjustment, with firms and households adapting to goods and services tax rate rationalisation, deregulation, and simplification of compliance requirements across sectors – all steps the government undertook to mitigate the impact of global uncertainity and penal tarifffs which made FY26 an "unusually challenging year for the economy".

The Survey's projection of 6.8-7.2% GDP growth in FY27 is higher than the forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The IMF earlier this month projected India's GDP growth in FY27 at 6.4%, while the World Bank sees it at 6.5%.

 

For the December quarter, the Survey sees GDP growth at a resilient 7%, even as it would be lower than the 8% growth in the first half of FY26. GDP growth is seen at 7% in Oct-Dec based on a nowcast model developed by the economic division in the Department of Economic Affairs. Indicators show strengthening economic momentum in recent months of the back of government reforms, the Survey said. 

Consumption demand has been buoyant in FY26, thanks to the positive impact of GST rate rationalisation and softer inflation which improved the real purchasing power of rural non-farm income, the Survey said. GST rate changes are expected to support demand and boost revenues, it said. 

 

"Currently, the strong consumption growth observed in H1, along with supportive highfrequency indicators during Q3 of FY26, suggests that private consumption is likely to remain resilient throughout the year," the Survey said. In FY27, domestic demand and investment are seen gaining strength, the Survey said. 

 

While demand remains resilient, private investment intentions are also improving. These conditions provide resilience against external shocks and support the continuation of growth momentum, the Survey said. Agricultural supply prospects are expected to strengthen farm incomes and sustain rural demand, enabling agriculture to provide a steady contribution to overall growth momentum in the second half of FY26. 

Going ahead, the Survey called for "farm-to-fork" policies that streamline the supply chain from producers to consumers—emphasising freshness, local sourcing, and fewer intermediaries, thereby reducing overall cost in the economy.  End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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