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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – NTPC Ltd. is expected to report a modest year-on-year rise in both net profit and revenue for the December quarter, owing to low capacity addition and weak power demand, according to analysts.

 

NTPC is projected to report a net profit of over INR 49 billion for the reporting quarter, up over 4% on year, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The lowest forecast for the electricity generating company's bottom line is over INR 47 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., while the highest is over INR 51 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

For the December quarter, NTPC is projected to report a top line of over INR 431 billion, up over 4% on year, according to the average of estimates. The projections range from over INR 458 billion by JM Financial to nearly INR 417 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd.  

 

"We expect PAT to grow at a meagre 2.6% YoY (year-on-year) owing to limited commissioning over the last 12-15 months, weak PLF (plant load factor) in the standalone business in Q3FY26 (Oct-Dec), with weak power demand during the quarter further exacerbating issues," Nuvama said in a note.

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects NTPC to report a muted quarter, with adjusted net profit growth of 7% on year due to "limited new capacity additions and soft power demand in 3QFY26 (Oct-Dec)".

 

The December quarter normally sees an uptick in electricity demand, after the end of the monsoon in mid-October. In 2025, the monsoon extended till late November. Data released by the Central Electricity Authority showed that electricity generation in India was 126.29 billion kilowatt-hours in December, up from 111.76 billion kilowatt-hours in November and 119.57 billion kilowatt-hours in October. Demand recovered in December, led by higher industrial activity and residential consumption, JM Financial said in its note.  

 

Analysts also expect NTPC's profitability to be somewhat insulated from changes in power demand, as it operates under a regulatory mechanism that ensures its returns are largely assured. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission determines tariffs to be paid to NTPC when the company signs long-term power purchase agreements which insulate the company from short-term fluctuations in demand. This provides the company with long-term earnings and cash flow visibility.

 

NTPC is India's biggest power producer. The company supplied around one-fourth of India's total power demand in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) and has roughly 17% of India's installed capacity. NTPC generates and sells electricity from thermal, solar, hydroelectric, and wind energy sources. As of Sept. 30, NTPC had a total installed capacity of over 117 GW, which includes nearly 86 GW of operational capacity and nearly 31 GW of capacity under construction.

 

NTPC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are estimated at nearly INR 124 billion, according to the average of estimates from five brokerages. Estimates for EBITDA range from nearly INR 112 billion by Nuvama Wealth to nearly INR 143 billion by JM Financial.

 

For the trailing quarter, NTPC reported a net profit of nearly INR 47 billion, up 0.1% on year, and revenue of nearly INR 392 billion, down 3% on year. Its shares have lost over 11% since the company disclosed its September quarter earnings. NTPC will report its December quarter earnings on Friday.

 

On Wednesday, NTPC's shares closed  at INR 348.05 on the National Stock Exchange, up nearly 1%. 

 

Of the five brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 417. This is nearly 20% higher than current stock price of the company. The remaining one has a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 370.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for NTPC from six broking firms in descending order of estimates of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	458.39	51.47	140.68
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	448.30	49.63	129.62
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	418.58	49.61	121.28
Kotak Securities Ltd	416.93	48.39	116.86
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	424.03	48	--
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	420.05	49.63	129.62
Average	431.05	49.53	123.99

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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