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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Bajaj Auto Ltd.'s revenue and profit for the December quarter are expected to get a boost from higher exports, a weaker rupee, and increased sales of motorcycles with an engine capacity of over 125 cubic centimetres, according to brokerages. The Pune-based automaker's robust performance overseas comes as domestic sales showed moderate growth in the reporting quarter despite the cut in goods and services tax on two-wheelers and three-wheelers.

 

The company's net profit for the December quarter is expected to grow 25% on year to INR 26.33 billion, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. The projected growth rate is a tad higher than the 24% on year growth in the September quarter but far stronger than the 3% on year growth in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate for the company's net profit for the quarter is INR 33.70 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 23.34 billion from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Bajaj Auto's top line for the reporting quarter is projected to grow at a five-quarter high of 20% year-on-year to INR 154.20 billion, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. The highest estimate for the Chetak maker's revenue for the quarter is INR 156.98 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 150.67 billion from Nirmal Bang.

 

The company despatched 1.34 million automobiles in the December quarter, up 10% on year. This includes 731,037 automobiles sold in India, up 3.4% on year, and 610,215 automobiles sold overseas, up 18% on year. Exports formed roughly 45% of Bajaj Auto's sales portfolio in the reporting quarter, higher than 33.7% in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar). This increased reliance on exports is expected to reflect favourably in Bajaj Auto's financial performance, primarily because of the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, according to analysts. The rupee fell 5.6% on year against the dollar in the December quarter to INR 89, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Bajaj Auto is among India's leading automakers with a sizeable presence across two-wheelers and three-wheelers in India and overseas. Its two-wheeler brands include Pulsar, Dominar, KTM, Husqvarna, and Chetak. The company operates manufacturing facilities primarily in Maharashtra, along with one plant in Uttarakhand, and has a total installed annual capacity of 7.2 million units. The company exports its vehicles to countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

 

Apart from internal combustion engine-run vehicles, the company also offers electric powertrain options in its two- and three-wheelers. Bajaj Auto's electric vehicle portfolio had collectively contributed 18% to its domestic revenue in the September quarter, with a higher contribution from electric three-wheelers. While its electric portfolio is not profitable yet, it had reached operating breakeven in the March quarter of FY25.

 

The company has ceded ground when it comes to the domestic motorcycle market, where it currently holds a share of roughly 17%. Here, Bajaj Auto has made it clear that the 125cc+ segment is the one it wants to focus on, as it is "strategically important" for the company. "The market share erosion which we experienced over the last few quarters had got arrested by the end of Quarter 2, and October saw the beginning of market share gains in the strategic 125cc plus segment, and it was in particular driven by the 150cc plus sport segment," the company's Executive Director Rakesh Sharma said in a post-earnings analyst call in November.

 

"Improved domestic volumes with market share gain in its strategic 125cc+ segment along with sustained exports growth & a weaker INR is expected to drive 19% YoY increase in revenue (for the December quarter)," Prabhudas Lilladher said in a report.

 

Increased exports are also expected to benefit the company's average realisation per vehicle sold in the December quarter. Motilal Oswal expects the average selling price of Bajaj Auto's automobiles to be INR 113,481 for the reporting quarter, roughly 9% higher on year. "Expect a 10% yoy increase in ASPs (average selling price) due to higher mix of export 3W (three-wheelers) and premium 2W (two-wheeler segments)," Kotak Securities said.

 

Bajaj Auto is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 31.62 billion for the latest quarter, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. The highest estimate for Bajaj Auto's EBITDA for the quarter is INR 32.73 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is INR 29.23 billion from Nirmal Bang.

 

The company's EBITDA margin is expected to grow 56 basis points on year to 20.7% due to increased sales of higher-priced products and benefits from depreciation of the rupee against the dollar, SMIFS Ltd. said in a report. Bajaj Auto's EBITDA margin could get an additional boost from lower marketing spends, Kotak Securities said.

 

Bajaj Auto will announce its December quarter earnings on Friday. Market participants are expected to track the company's views on progress in the recovery of the KTM business and domestic motorcycle market share.

 

Wednesday, shares of Bajaj Auto closed 0.6% lower on the National Stock Exchange at INR 9,433.50. The Pulsar maker's stock has risen roughly 8% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Nov. 7. The company's shares hit a 52-week high on Jan. 8, but have lost around 5% since then.

 

Of the 13 research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 10,148. The remaining six have a 'hold' call on the stock with an average target price of INR 9,500.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Bajaj Auto from 14 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	153.26	33.70	31.35
Kotak Securities Ltd	153.73	26.49	32.05
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	156.51	26.44	32.73
YES Securities (India) Ltd	156.98	26.30	32.13
HDFC Securities Ltd	156.08	26.15	N.A.
HSBC Global Research	154.92	26.05	31.45
ICICI Securities Ltd	154.66	26.01	32.11
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	152.21	25.92	31.84
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	156.03	25.88	32.07
SMIFS Ltd	154.75	25.78	32.05
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	155.61	25.76	31.90
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	152.34	25.52	31.27
Nomura Equity Research	151.09	25.24	30.89
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	150.67	23.34	29.23
Average	154.20	26.33	31.62

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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