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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – Broad-based weakness in the dollar index notwithstanding, the rupee erased its early rise and ended slightly lower against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. Dollar purchases to cover short dollar bets ahead of expiry of front-month currency futures and options and non-deliverable forwards contracts also weighed on the domestic currency, they said.

 

"Even when dollar fell so much, there was no relief for rupee. There was constant buying (of dollars)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Corporates, FPIs, and NDF maturity-related buying were all the main drivers."

 

After hitting a high of 91.5125 a dollar during the day, the rupee ended at 91.7825 Wednesday, against 91.7200 Tuesday. It was among the worst-performing Asian currencies. Most of its peers rose 0.1-0.8% against the dollar.

 

The rupee started the day on a stronger footing as the dollar index slumped to a near-four-year low after US President Donald Trump shrugged off its recent weakness. Trump said Tuesday the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much. Traders took his comments as a signal to intensify dollar sales.

 

The dollar has been under pressure as traders braced for a possible coordinated currency intervention by the US and Japanese authorities to stabilise the yen. Trump's volatile trade and international policies and worries about the US Federal Reserve's independence have also weighed on the greenback.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.12, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. The index hit a low of 95.55 Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. So far this year, the dollar index has fallen over 2%.

 

However, banks rushed to buy the greenback on behalf of importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which led to the Indian unit giving up some of its gains, dealers said. Importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said.

 

Further, banks bought dollars to cover their existing short dollar bets ahead of expiry of front-month currency futures and options contract, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Traders also bought dollars to cover maturing positions in the NDF market, they said. 

 

FPI outflows from domestic markets also exerted pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. "There have been no incremental flows, money is only going out. In such a case, it is natural that we are seeing such buying (of dollars) in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. So far this month, FPIs have pulled out almost $3.60 billion from domestic equities.

 

The fall of the Indian currency was limited as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, below 91.80 a dollar, dealers said. However, the intervention was not aggressive, they said.

 

"RBI was there in a very mild manner. They are not trying to change rupee's direction, just keeping it where it is," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, according to dealers. Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex ended 0.7% and 0.6% higher, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.7825	91.6100	91.5125	91.8250	91.7200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	246.78	244.28	248.28	244.22	237.77

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting appreciation in the rupee earlier in the day, dealers said. The rupee rose sharply to 91.5125 a dollar earlier in the day as the dollar index declined to a near-four-year low, they said. 

 

Market participants now await the Fed's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates. Fed funds futures reflect a 97.2% chance of status quo on rates, with a minority expecting a 25 basis-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.67%, up from the previous close of 2.59%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 246.78 paise, against 237.77 paise Tuesday. 

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index after the Fed's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, dealers said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on threats to the central bank's independence and future rate path will be closely monitored. Market participants will also be watchful of developments related to US tariffs, dealers said. 

 

Further, given the uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars as they fear depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to continue exerting pressure on the rupee.

 

"Despite the India-EU FTA (free trade agreement) and equities correction, there has been no respite for the rupee," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "I really think fundamentally, inflows or a US trade deal can only change things (for rupee)."

 

Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars to prevent the rupee from falling past the psychologically crucial level of 92.00. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.50-92.00 against the dollar. Key technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index hovers near 4-yr low; Australian dlr up

 

	AT 1425 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.2157	1.2168	1.2129	1.2145
EUR/USD	1.0182	1.0185	1.0154	1.0169
NZD/USD	0.6296	0.6299	0.6266	0.6270
AUD/USD	0.6965	0.6968	0.6935	0.6947
USD/JPY	134.1720	134.3130	133.4230	133.8330
USD/CAD	1.2847	1.2855	1.2835	1.2842
EUR/JPY	136.6130	136.6640	135.6480	136.0870
CHF/USD	1.0402	1.0414	1.0393	1.0410
EUR/CHF	0.9788	0.9789	0.9763	0.9766

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index hovered near a four-year low as US President Donald Trump Tuesday brushed off its recent weakness. Trump said the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much. Traders took his comments as a signal to intensify dollar selling.

 

At 1425 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.19, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. So far this year, the dollar index has fallen over 2%. 

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.1%, hitting a three-year high, after data released Wednesday showed inflation in Australia was higher than expected in December, increasing expectations of a rate hike by the central bank. Inflation rose to 3.8% on year last month from 3.4% in November. 

 

The euro fell 0.4% against the dollar. Austrian central bank governor Martin Kocher said the European Central Bank might need to consider another interest rate cut if further gains in the euro begin to weigh on the bank's inflation outlook. 

 

The Japanese yen was down 0.2% against the greenback. Minutes of Bank of Japan's December meeting showed Wednesday policymakers considered mounting inflationary pressures stemming from a weak yen and labour shortages, among other factors, as key influences for the timing of additional interest rate hikes. The discussions showed the board's readiness to continue raising still-low borrowing costs even after its decision in December to hike the policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%. The pound sterling fell 0.3% against the dollar. 

 

Market participants now await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates. Fed funds futures reflect a 97.2% chance of status quo on rates, with the minority expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium jumps as importers buy forward dollars on rupee's rise

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6775	91.6100	91.5125	91.7400	91.7200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	247.28	244.28	248.28	244.22	237.77

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium jumped as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting appreciation in the rupee, dealers said. The rupee rose sharply to 91.5125 a dollar earlier in the day as the dollar index declined to a near four-year low, they said. 

 

The dollar index tumbled after US President Donald Trump Tuesday said that the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much. At 1310 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.03, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. 

 

"I think forwards were over recieved and now there is just paying all across," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Spot has appreciated as well."

 

Market participants now await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates. Fed funds futures reflect a 97.2% chance of status quo on rates, with a minority expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on ongoing threats to central bank independence and future rate path will be closely monitored. 

 

At 1310 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.68%, up from the previous close of 2.59%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 247.28 paise, against 237.77 paise Tuesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Erases all gains as importers buy dlrs; weak dlr index supports

 

	AT 1235 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.7300	91.6100	91.5125	91.7325	91.7200

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee gave up all early gains against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. 

 

"The market is very biddish (buying dollars) but we need to see where the upside (for dollar-rupee) holds," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "92.00 looks like the big stop for now." Further, banks bought dollars to cover their existing short dollar bets ahead of expiry of front-month currency futures and options contract, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

The Indian unit rose to a high of 91.5125 a dollar earlier in the day as the dollar index hovered near a four-year low on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump brushed off its recent weakness. Trump said on Tuesday the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it had declined too much. Traders took his comments as a signal to intensify dollar selling.

 

At 1235 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.09, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. So far this year, the dollar index has fallen over 2%. 

 

Market participants now await the US Federal Reserve's policy decision at 0030 IST Thursday, where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on ongoing threats to central bank independence and future rate path will be closely monitored. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.40 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.80 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 28

 

NEW DELHI – At 1113 IST, the rupee was at 91.6375 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.6100 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.7200 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	92.00	91.20	-
Private-sector bank	92.00	91.80	91.30	-
Brokerage firm	92.20	92.00	91.20	90.60
Brokerage firm	92.20	92.00	91.00	90.80

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Rises as dollar index slides to 4-yr low post Trump's comments

 

	AT 0920 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6075	91.6100	91.5600	91.6225	91.7200

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose against the dollar as the dollar index declined to a near four-year low after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it ‌had declined too much. His remarks led to an aggressive sell-off in the greenback by traders. 

 

At 0920 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.06, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. So far this year, the dollar index has fallen over 2%. 

 

"We are seeing some support from dollar index's decline but overall the outlook for INR is bullish," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "The market will remain on the biddish (buying of dollars) side. I am looking at 91.40-91.75 range for the time being."

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, in order to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, limiting gains for the Indian unit. Importers expect the Indian unit to depreciate going ahead owing to a prolonged delay in finalising the trade deal between India and the US, they said. 

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0920 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.6?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.40 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.50 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dlr index hits 4-yr low on Trump's remarks

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Wednesday as the dollar index slumped to a near four-year low after US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the value of the dollar was "great", when asked whether he thought it ‌had declined too much. His comments led to an aggressive sell-off in the greenback by traders. 

 

The dollar has been weakening as traders braced for a possible coordinated currency intervention by US and Japanese authorities to stabilise the yen. Trump's volatile trade and international policies and worries about the Federal Reserve's independence have also weighed on the greenback. At 0845 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.13, against 95.82 Tuesday and 97.06 Monday. The index hit a low of 95.55 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Feb. 10, 2022. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.8% against the dollar, the most among its Asian peers, while the South Korean won was up 0.6%. When asked about his surprise Monday announcement that the US would increase tariffs on imports from South Korea to 25%, US President Donald Trump on Tuesday ‌said both the countries would work out a solution.

 

Trump's chief trade negotiator, Jamieson Greer, said the US had ‌reduced its tariff rate on South Korean goods to 15% from 25% in exchange for Seoul's pledge to invest $350 billion in the US, allow more US cars into South Korea, and eliminate some non-tariff barriers. "But, in the meantime, they haven't been able to get a bill through to do the investment," Greer said. 

 

The Taiwan dollar and Phillipine peso rose 0.5% and 0.4% against the dollar, respectively. The Chinese yuan and Indonesia rupiah gained 0.1% and 0.2% against the US unit, respectively. Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said on Tuesday that overall GDP growth in Indonesia is expected to have met the 5.2% target for 2025 despite widespread destruction caused by floods late last year, though growth was estimated to have been quicker in the fourth quarter. Further, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo said his institution would continue to monitor for room to cut interest rates to support economic growth.

 

Bucking the trend, the Thai baht was down 0.2% against the dollar. The finance ministry said on Tuesday Thailand's economy is expected to grow 2.0% in 2026, maintaining its previous forecast.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 28

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.70	91.10
State-owned bank	91.70	91.25
Private-sector bank	91.70	91.30
Private-sector bank	91.75	91.40
Private-sector bank	91.80	91.30
Foreign bank	91.80	91.20
Brokerage firm	91.72	91.42
Brokerage firm	91.80	91.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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