Informist Poll
Dec IIP growth seen easing to 5% from 2-year high of 6.7% Nov
This story was originally published at 18:09 IST on 27 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026
By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - Growth in India's industrial production, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, likely slowed down to 5.0% in December from a 25-month high of 6.7% in November, according to an Informist poll of 11 economists. Despite moderating, an IIP growth of 5% would be the second highest in the current financial year.
Industrial output had risen 3.7% in December 2024. Economists' estimates for IIP growth in December range from 4.0% to 6.1%. The statistics ministry will release the IIP data for December at 1600 IST Wednesday.
Growth is seen moderating in December mainly because of a statistical effect of a high base. The general index had risen 6.7% on month in December 2024, resulting in an unfavourable base effect this time.
The base effect in December is such that if the overall index remains unchanged from November, IIP growth will fall to 0.0%. A 5.0% on-year growth in December would translate into a 5.0% month-on-month rise in the index, the highest sequential growth since March.
Most high-frequency indicators reflect robust factory output growth in December. Vehicle production jumped up 37% on year in December against a rise of 22% in November, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed. "Electricity production and manufacturing are likely to support IIP growth led by motor vehicle production...," Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said in a report. "A sustained rise in motor vehicle production is indicative of continued demand beyond the peak festive season supported by GST cuts."
The output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of IIP, grew at a four-month-high pace of 3.7% in December against 2.1% in November. The number of e-way bills generated rose 24% on year in December, marginally slower than 27.6% in November, according to data from the Goods and Services Tax Network. The Purchasing Managers' Index, however, fell to a two-year low of 55.0 in December.
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in December:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. | 4.0% |
| India Ratings and Research | 4.0% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 4.3% |
| Moody's Analytics | 4.5% |
| HDFC Bank | 4.8% |
| Nomura | 5.0% |
| Capital Economics | 5.5% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 5.5% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 5.7% |
| ICICI Bank | 5.8% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services | 6.1% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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