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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI - The December quarter revenue of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. is expected to grow at the fastest rate in the last 13 consecutive quarters as its wholesale despatches surged due to the full pass-through of the goods and services tax rate cut in a festival-heavy quarter. A steady increase in exports is expected to further boost its top line for the reporting quarter and the fall of the rupee against the dollar will add to export revenues.

 

The Swift maker's net profit for the December quarter is projected to grow 32% on year to INR 46.55 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. The estimates for the company's bottom line for the quarter range from a low of INR 40.54 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. to a high of INR 56.96 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

Maruti Suzuki's top line for the reporting quarter is expected to be INR 509.74 billion, which would translate into an on-year growth of 32%, according to the average of 13 estimates. The highest projection for the automaker's net sales for the quarter is INR 527.06 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 485 billion by Nirmal Bang.

 

Maruti Suzuki, India's largest passenger vehicle manufacturer, commands about 40% of the total passenger vehicle market in India. It is also India's biggest passenger vehicle exporter. The company operates manufacturing units in Haryana and Gujarat with an annual capacity of 2.6 million vehicles. With this capacity fully utilised, the board earlier this month approved plans to add capacity for another 1 million units per annum by acquiring land in Gujarat for INR 49.60 billion.

 

The capacity expansion decision came after the company's production lines were unable to keep pace with a surge in demand after the GST rate cut and additional discounts on select models in the December quarter. The company sold a record 667,769 passenger vehicles in the latest quarter, up 18% on year. Domestic sales, which form roughly two-thirds of its overall despatches, grew 22% on year while exports increased 4% on year.

 

In the December quarter, the company had to hold back production of its bigger cars to produce more of the smaller models. "In December, we have been able to cater to the demand which was there in the market only because we have been able to reduce some other model's growth and we are serving customers of the mini car segment," the company's Senior Executive Officer of Marketing & Sales Partho Banerjee told reporters earlier this month. Models in its mini segment include the Alto and S-Presso, which are priced between INR 370,000-INR 545,000, ex-showroom, New Delhi.

 

This upturn in demand for small cars in a market where consumers are increasingly preferring larger utility vehicles is expected to boost Maruti Suzuki's revenues. The company dominates India's small car segment with a market share of around 70%. "The revival in small car volumes post GST 2.0 rate cuts is expected to drive the top line along with the 8 new SUVs that it aims to launch by end of this decade to capture the shifting consumer preferences," Prabhudas Lilladher said in a report.

 

Analysts expect Maruti Suzuki's realisation per car to rise 11–15% on year in the December quarter, driven by higher sales of small cars and strong growth in export volumes. Dealership checks indicate that even within the small car segment, buyers gravitated toward feature-rich top trims, lifting average realisations.

 

Demand for SUVs, such as the Grand Vitara and the newly launched Victoris, also remained strong during the quarter, further supporting a double-digit increase in average selling prices, analysts said. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects the average selling price of Maruti Suzuki cars to increase 11% on year to INR 754,596, noting that the share of utility vehicles rose to 33.5% in the December quarter from 28% in the September quarter.

 

Its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization for the latest quarter are expected to surge 36% on year to INR 60.93 billion, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The estimates for the company's EBITDA for the reporting quarter range from a low of INR 52.62 billion by Nirmal Bang to a high of INR 68.75 billion by Nuvama.

 

The automaker did not offer broad-based discounts, though select models –- particularly in the small-car segment –- saw steep discounts, dealership checks indicate. Analysts expect this to weigh on Maruti Suzuki's EBITDA margins. Analysts polled by Informist are split on the direction of Maruti Suzuki's EBITDA margin for the quarter, with some forecasting a mild contraction and others expecting a modest expansion.

 

"The EBITDA margin is projected to improve by ~10bps on YoY basis, led by operating leverage benefits and better mix offset by discounts," SMIFS said. Maruti Suzuki had reported an EBITDA margin of 13.2% in the year-ago quarter. Brokerages including ICICI Securities Ltd. and Kotak Securities Ltd. expect operating leverage to support Maruti Suzuki's margins, though this will be partly offset by input cost pressures.

 

Maruti Suzuki will disclose its December quarter earnings Wednesday. The market will keenly track the company's pricing for its first electric vehicle -- the E Vitara. While many of its peers have announced price hikes in the wake of an uptick in input costs, Maruti Suzuki has said it will take a call on the same soon. Market will also track the company's commentary on demand, given that the festival season is over.

 

At 1400 IST, shares of the company traded nearly 2% lower on the National Stock Exchange at INR 15,183. Maruti Suzuki's shares have fallen around 6% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Oct. 31. The stock is around 13% down from its 52-week high of INR 17,370, which it had hit on Jan. 5.

 

Of the 12 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 18,631, which is roughly 18% higher than the current market price. The remaining two brokerages have a ‘hold' or equivalent recommendation.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Maruti Suzuki from 13 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	520.55	56.96	59.69
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	517.28	49.23	62.83
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	516.91	49.01	65.13
Kotak Securities Ltd	514.85	48.97	61.63
YES Securities (India) Ltd	523.10	47.43	60.27
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	527.06	46.30	68.75
Nomura Equity Research	506.76	46.06	67.53
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	500.14	44.87	58.02
HDFC Securities Ltd	508.40	44.73	N.A.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	503.90	44.18	58.33
SMIFS Ltd	503.90	44.05	59
ICICI Securities Ltd	498.79	42.80	57.33
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	485	40.54	52.62
Average	509.74	46.55	60.93

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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