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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended off the day's high against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales supported the Indian currency throughout the day, they said. 

 

"It is natural that after yesterday's (Wednesday's) movement, buying (of dollars) will be present," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The impact was not very visible because some support (for rupee) was there (at) all times." The rupee hit a lifetime low of 91.7425 Wednesday and depreciated 0.8% against the dollar, the most in a day in two months.  

 

After touching a high of 91.4625 a dollar, the rupee ended at 91.6300 Thursday, snapping a six-day losing streak. It had settled at 91.6950 Wednesday. The Indian currency moved in a range of 21 paise during the day.

 

The rupee began the day sharply higher against the dollar as risk sentiment among investors improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of European nations, saying he had reached an agreement on a framework of a future deal on Greenland with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, dealers said. 

 

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said the US would not proceed with tariffs on Europe that were scheduled to take effect from Feb. 1. Trump Saturday had threatened to implement additional tariffs from Feb. 1 on European Union members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, ‍Netherlands, and Finland, along with the UK and Norway, until the US was allowed to take over Greenland.

 

A rise in domestic equities also boosted the rupee, according to dealers. Thursday, both the BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.5% higher.

 

However, gains for the Indian currency were limited as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "This is a pattern we have seen every time there is any gain in rupee. Buying (for dollars) comes in," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "This will continue till the time there is a trade deal (with the US)."

 

The local unit broadly took no support from Trump's comments Wednesday that India and the US would have a "good trade deal". He also expressed confidence about the future of trade relations between the two countries, Moneycontrol reported. Dealers said the Indian unit will only get some respite when there is an actual favourable trade deal in place.

 

"We have seen too many headlines and reports on the trade deal progress but nothing has happened," the dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Only a full-fledged deal, which is in our favour, can save the rupee."

 

Meanwhile, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. The rupee hit a low of 91.6750 during the day, not too far from its lifetime low of 91.7425.

 

A rise in the dollar index as Trump dropped tariff threats against Europe and ruled out seizing Greenland by force also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.78, steady from 98.79 Wednesday and higher than 98.56 Tuesday.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6300	91.5300	91.4625	91.6750	91.6950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.33	241.61	241.61	235.61	249.23

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures Thursday as the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June, they said.

 

The central bank has likely been selling dollars for forward delivery since Tuesday, for maturity in various tenures, according to dealers. Since spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. The net liquidity injected in the banking system by the RBI--a proxy for the liquidity deficit--was INR 61.21 billion Wednesday, against INR 721.31 billion net absorbed Tuesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.59%, down sharply from the previous close of 2.70%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.33 paise, against 249.23 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Friday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the personal consumption expenditures data, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, for November and weekly jobless claims, both due later in the day, dealers said. Market participants will also keep a close watch on developements related to US tariffs.

 

While market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales, they are uncertain about the extent of its support. Most dealers expect the central bank to prevent the Indian currency from hitting the psychologically-crucial 92.00-to-a-dollar level.

 

However, given the prolonged delay in finalising the trade deal between India and the US, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing depreciation of the local currency. They also expect foreign portfolio outflows to exert pressure on the rupee. So far this month, foreign portfolio investors have pulled out almost $2.9 billion from domestic equities. "Overall trend is on the upside (for dollar-rupee) and we may see rupee fall to 92.00 initially before a recovery could be seen," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.40-91.80 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.80 and resistance at 91.40.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr firm before data; Trump tones down Greenland threat

 

	AT 1540 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3440	1.3450	1.3410	1.3426
EUR/USD	1.1689	1.1698	1.1670	1.1685
NZD/USD	0.5864	0.5870	0.5836	0.5840
AUD/USD	0.6800	0.6811	0.6754	0.6760
USD/JPY	158.7190	158.8920	158.1850	158.3120
USD/CAD	1.3828	1.3845	1.3815	1.3832
EUR/JPY	185.5420	185.7690	184.8170	184.9800
CHF/USD	1.2595	1.2612	1.2552	1.2567
EUR/CHF	0.9280	0.9302	0.9273	0.9295

 

MUMBAI – The dollar was steady before the release of key data points from the region on Thursday. US personal consumption expenditures figures for October and November are due later in the day, which are expected to confirm that inflationary pressures remain well above the US Federal Reserve's 2% target for price stability.

 

At the same time, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to release the final reading of the third quarter's GDP. Previous estimates revealed that the US economy accelerated to a 4.3% annualised growth rate in the quarter, from 3.8% in the previous one.

 

At 1534 IST, the dollar index, which measures strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.70, higher than 98.79 Wednesday and 98.56 Tuesday.

 

Trump's threat over the weekend to levy tariffs on a number of European nations for their stance on Greenland rattled markets and sparked a broad selloff in US assets, but his comments in Davos on Wednesday, ruling out military action in the Arctic island, offered investors some relief. Trump Saturday threatened to implement additional tariffs from Feb. 1 on European Union members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, ‍the Netherlands and Finland, along with the UK and Norway, until the US was allowed to buy Greenland. 

 

The Australian dollar was upo 0.6% against the dollar. The Australian currency hit a 15-month high on Thursday after domestic jobs data reduced chances of an immediate rate hike. 

 

The Japanese yen was up 0.3% against the dollar. On Friday, traders await the Bank of Japan's rate decision, wherein status quo on rates is expected and focus will be on Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference.

 

The euro and the pound sterling were up 0.1?ch against the dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums dn as RBI holds buy-sell swap to avert liquidity drain

 

	AT 1305 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.5850	91.5300	91.4625	91.6425	91.6950
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	236.61	241.61	241.61	236.18	249.23

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Thursday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June, they said.

 

"RBI has been aggressively receiving in forwards of late," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There is really no other option. If they are intervening in spot and will have to intervene in future, too, they will have to neutralise somewhere." 

 

The central bank has likely been selling dollars for forward delivery since the last two days, for maturity in various tenures, according to dealers. On Thursday, the RBI likely sold dollars in the spot market to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. 

 

Since spot dollar sales drain out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. The net liquidity injected in the banking system by the RBI – a proxy for the liquidity deficit – was INR 61.21 billion Wednesday, against INR 721.31 billion net absorbed on Tuesday.

 

At 1305 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.58%, sharply lower than the previous close of 2.70%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 236.61 paise, against 249.23 paise Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dollars; RBI intervention supports

 

	AT 1238 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.5900	91.5300	91.4625	91.6425	91.6950

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased some of its early gains against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the Indian unit, they said. 

 

"We are seeing decent demand (for dollars) at these levels but there is support as well, which has kept the moves (in rupee) contained," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "I am expecting around 91.70 levels to hold."

 

The RBI likely sold dollars around 91.64 a dollar in order to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. In an extremely volatile session, the rupee hit a lifetime low of 91.7425 on Wednesday and depreciated 0.8% against the dollar, the most in a day in two months.  

 

The rupee rose sharply earlier in the day as risk sentiment among investors improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of European nations, saying he had reached an agreement on a framework of a future deal on Greenland with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, dealers said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.40 and 91.70 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.40 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 22

 

NEW DELHI – At 1125 IST, the rupee was at 91.6000 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.5300 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.6950 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	91.80	91.00	-
Private-sector bank	92.00	91.80	91.10	91.00
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.80	90.80	90.60
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.80	90.70	90.50

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Up; risk appetite improves as US withdraws Europe tariff threat

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.5350	91.5300	91.5000	91.5700	91.6950

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar, recovering from Wednesday's slump, as risk sentiment among investors improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of European nations, saying he had reached an agreement on a framework of a future deal on Greenland with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, dealers said.  

 

"At current levels, a substantial portion of global risk appears to be priced into the rupee. From here, markets may enter a phase of consolidation, with the possibility of a partial recovery if risk sentiment stabilises," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "The 92.00 (a dollar) level remains a strong resistance zone, while sustained RBI support could gradually pull dollar-rupee back toward the 90.50–90.70 range in the near term."

 

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said the US would not proceed with tariffs on Europe that were scheduled to take effect from Feb. 1. Trump on Saturday threatened to implement additional tariffs from Feb. 1 on European Union members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, ‍the Netherlands and Finland, along with the UK and Norway, until the US was allowed to buy Greenland.

 

A rise in domestic equities also supported the Indian currency, dealers said. At 0930 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.9?ch.  

 

However, market participants are watchful of dollar purchases on behalf of importers around the current dollar-rupee rates, which may limit gains for the Indian unit. "Importers will try to book these levels after yesterday's (Wednesday) movement," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I do not expect 91.50 around levels to sustain." After hitting a record low of 91.7425, the Indian currency settled at 91.6950 on Wednesday, logging its worst single-day fall in two months. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.30 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 91.50 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as Trump withdraws Greenland threats, tariffs

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as risk appetite among investors improved after US President Donald Trump withdrew a threat to impose tariffs on a number of European nations, saying he had reached an agreement on a framework of a future deal on Greenland with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 

 

Trump's threats over the weekend to levy tariffs on a number of European nations for their stance on Greenland rattled markets and sparked a broad selloff in US assets, but his comments in Davos on Wednesday ruling out military action in the Arctic island offered investors some relief. Trump on Saturday threatened to implement additional tariffs from Feb. 1 on European Union members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, ‍the Netherlands and Finland, along with the UK and Norway, until the US was allowed to buy Greenland. 

 

Both the Phillipine peso and Indonsian rupiah gained 0.2% against the dollar. Indonesia's central bank kept its key policy rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, saying the level was supportive of economic expansion while remaining consistent with its goal to anchor the rupiah. Bank Indonesia held the benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75%. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit and the Taiwan dollar were up 0.1% against the greenback while the Chinese yuan was flat. Data released Thursday showed the youth jobless rate in China fell in December for 16-to-24 year-olds, excluding college students, to 16.5% from 16.9% a month prior. 

 

The South Korean won, however, fell 0.2% against the US unit after data Thursday showed South Korea's economy unexpectedly shrank in the final quarter of 2025. GDP contracted 0.3% in the Oct-Dec period from the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a median 0.1% increase expected in a Reuters poll.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 22

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.70	91.20
State-owned bank	91.85	91.25
Private-sector bank	91.60	91.20
Private-sector bank	91.80	91.35
Private-sector bank	91.50	91.00
Private-sector bank	91.85	91.35
Foreign bank	91.80	91.10
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.40

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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