India Rupee Review
At record closing low after biggest 1-day fall in 2 mos
This story was originally published at 17:03 IST on 21 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar Wednesday, logging its worst single-day fall in two months, owing to persistent dollar demand from foreign portfolio investors and importers, dealers said. While the Reserve Bank of India likely stepped in through dollar sales to limit the decline in the rupee, the intervention was broadly less aggressive and sporadic in nature, dealers said.
"There was buying (of dollars) from all around in the market. RBI was there at times but its presence was minimal at best. I am sure that led to even more demand (for dollars)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
After hitting a record low of 91.7425 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 91.6950 on Wednesday, 0.8% lower than its previous close. The Indian currency depreciated for the sixth consecutive trading day and was the worst performer amongst its Asian peers.
The Indian currency started the day weaker against the dollar, below the 91.00 per dollar level, as risk appetite among investors was dented amid the ongoing US-Europe trade tensions, dealers said. A sell-off in Japanese bonds owing to fiscal concerns also dampenend risk sentiment, they said.
US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on European nations that rejected his proposal to purchase Greenland has rattled markets, leading to investors reassessing risk. Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.
"..rising geopolitical tensions involving Europe and Greenland, along with fresh concerns over US tariff actions and the lack of a confirmed India–US trade deal, continued to weigh on sentiment," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "A sharp rally in bullion prices has further pressured the rupee by inflating the import bill."
Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, which exerted extreme downward pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. So far in January, FPIs have withdrawn almost $2.72 billion worth of funds from domestic equities.
Oil marketing companies and other importers bought dollars, with a sense of panic, fearing further weakness in the Indian currency, amidst the ongoing global trade tensions and prolonged delay in the India-US trade deal, dealers said. Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, exacerbating the fall in the Indian unit, dealers said. Further, some banks bought dollars to cover maturing positions in the non-deliverble forwards market at the daily reference rate fixing, which also weighed on the Indian unit, they said.
The RBI likely intervened at multiple dollar-rupee levels during the day, but not enough to counter the dollar demand in the spot market, dealers said. During the last few hours of the trade, the rupee briefly recovered over 15 paise from its record low of 91.7425, as the central bank stepped up its intervention, dealers said. However, the persistent greenback purchases ensured the recovery did not sustain, they said. The RBI likely sold around $1.5 billion-$2.0 billion in the spot market on Wednesday, according to dealers.
"The RBI did not show much intent to support the rupee today (Wednesday)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "They intervened at some levels but it did not do much for the rupee broadly." A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Wednesday, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.3% lower each.
|
AT 1530 IST |
AT 0900 IST |
HIGH |
LOW |
PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) |
|
|
Spot rupee per $1 |
91.6950 | 91.1000 | 91.1000 | 91.7425 | 90.9750 |
|
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) |
249.23 | 247.82 | 249.33 | 239.69 | 246.98 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended off its day's lows as some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee and noting the relatively lower premium levels, dealers said. The forward premium hit a low of 2.63?rlier in the day.
Premiums fell across tenures during the day as the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid draining out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars with maturities of six to eight months, they said.
Since spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.70%, against the previous close of 2.72%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 249.23 paise, against 246.98 paise Tuesday.
OUTLOOK
On Thursday, the rupee may continue its weakening streak as risk sentiment among investors remains dampened amid the ongoing US-Europe trade tensions and prolonged delay in the trade deal between India and the US, dealers said. While market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales, they are uncertain about the extent of its support, especially after the sporadic nature of the central bank's intervention on Wednesday .
"Unless RBI comes in heavily in the market right after spot opening, there is no reprieve for rupee I think," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Rupee has also not been taking any cue from the dollar." Market participants are now closely monitoring US President Trump's speech in Davos, later in the day.
Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing depreciation of the local currency, which would weigh on the rupee. They expect FPI outflows to also exert pressure on the local unit. "RBI intervention is helping smooth volatility but is not reversing the trend. In the near term, USD/INR (dollar-rupee) could extend towards 92–92.50 levels," Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency research at Kotak Securities, said in a note.
"Key catalysts to watch are progress on the India-EU FTA (free trade agreement) and signals from the Union Budget on Feb. 1. Over the medium term, the rupee looks undervalued, but stabilization will require improvement in capital flows and global risk appetite."
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.40-91.90 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 91.80.
India Rupee - World FX: Sterling rises on hotter than expected UK inflation
| AT 1501 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3425 | 1.3457 | 1.3425 | 1.3438 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1711 | 1.1736 | 1.1705 | 1.1724 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5845 | 0.5853 | 0.5822 | 0.5829 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6751 | 0.6758 | 0.6728 | 0.6736 |
| USD/JPY | 157.9180 | 158.2800 | 157.8250 | 158.1540 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3835 | 1.3841 | 1.3825 | 1.3834 |
| EUR/JPY | 184.9450 | 185.5330 | 184.8260 | 185.4400 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2625 | 1.2677 | 1.2618 | 1.2657 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9276 | 0.9282 | 0.9252 | 0.9261 |
MUMBAI – The pound sterling was up 0.1% against the dollar as inflation in the UK rose more than expected. The UK's inflation print rose to 3.4% in December from 3.2% in November, the UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday. The reading came in above the market expectation of 3.3%, according to FX Street.
The dollar remained weak on Wednesday, hovering near three-week lows, as traders continued with the 'Sell America' trade. At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.50, lower than 98.56 Tuesday and 99.05 Monday.
The yen rose 0.2% against the dollar ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday. Concerns that Japan's fiscal situation could deteriorate further if Takaichi introduces more stimulus plans, weighed on the yen.
The euro earlier hit its highest since Jan. 2 and was up 0.2% against the dollar. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Wednesday said "new world economic order must lead us to a deep review of how we organise European economy." (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premiums dn across tenures as RBI likely holds buy-sell swaps
|
AT 1340 IST |
AT 0900 IST |
HIGH |
LOW |
PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) |
|
|
Spot rupee per $1 |
91.7175 | 91.1000 | 91.1000 | 91.7425 | 90.9750 |
|
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) |
244.92 | 247.82 | 247.82 | 239.69 | 246.98 |
NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avoid draining out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars with maturities of six to eight months, they said.
"We are seeing receiving (from RBI) in mid-tenures, it's not a lot, but seems like a continuation from yesterday (Tuesday)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. On Wednesday, the rupee depreciated almost 0.8% against the dollar, logging its worst intraday fall in two months, and hit a record low of 91.7425 a dollar. While the RBI likely intermittently stepped in through dollar sales to limit the decline in the rupee, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, dealers said.
Since spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.
The RBI's buy-sell swaps in the forwards market will add to its net outstanding short forward book, which rose for the third consecutive month in November. The central bank's net outstanding short forward positions rose to a seven-month high of $66.05 billion at the end of November. Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee going ahead and noting the relatively lower premium levels, which limited losses for premiums, dealers said.
At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.66%, lower than the previous close of 2.72%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 244.92 paise, against 246.98 paise Tuesday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Falls more to record low on FPI outflows; stop losses triggered
| AT 1220 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 91.5625 | 91.1000 | 91.1000 | 91.5725 | 90.9750 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell further and hit record lows against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. Banks' greenback purchases to cover maturing positions in the non-deliverable forwards market also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. The rupee depreciated almost 0.7% against the dollar, logging its worst intraday fall in two months.
Oil marketing companies and other importers bought dollars, with a sense of panic, as they fear further weakness in the Indian currency, dealers said. Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets at multiple dollar-rupee levels, dragging the rupee to a lifetime low of 91.5725 a dollar, they said. "These are unchartered territories for rupee, so obviously everybody is on buying (of dollars) mode," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
Further, banks continued to buy dollars on behalf of FPIs, who wanted to pull out funds from Indian markets, dealers said. US President Donald Trump's latest push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs has triggered risk-off sentiment among investors, who are now dumping the dollar and shifting to other safe-haven assets. So far in January, FPIs have withdrawn almost $2.72 billion worth of funds from domestic equities.
While the Reserve Bank of India likely intermittently stepped in through dollar sales to limit the decline in the rupee, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, dealers said. "RBI is not trying to change rupee's direction, they are just there to cap volatility I think," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However, we never really know, they can intervene heavily at any level they please."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.20 and 91.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.60 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 21
NEW DELHI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 91.4875 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.1000 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9750 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 92.00 | 91.50 | 91.00 | 90.80 |
| Private-sector bank | 92.00 | 91.80 | 91.00 | 90.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.80 | 91.15 | 90.60 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.70 | 90.60 | 90.20 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Hits record low on weak risk appetite; RBI's intervention eyed
| AT 0940 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 91.2850 | 91.1000 | 91.1000 | 91.2875 | 90.9750 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a record low against the dollar as risk appetite among investors was dented amid the ongoing US-Europe trade tensions, dealers said. A sell-off in Japanese bonds owing to fiscal concerns also dampenend risk sentiment, they said. The Indian currency hit a record low of 91.2875 a dollar.
US President Donald Trump's latest push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs has triggered risk-off sentiment among investors, who are now dumping the dollar and shifting to other safe-haven assets. Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%.
Market participants are now watchful of intervention by the Reserve Bank of India through dollar sales, to support the Indian currency. In the last few trading days, the central bank had intervened to limit the rupee's fall actively, they said. However, some dealers speculated that the RBI had likely stepped in through dollar sales in the spot market already to limit losses for the Indian unit, albeit not aggressively.
"I think mild selling (of dollars) by the RBI will not help today, they will have to come aggressively," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Otherwise, there is no stopping for the rupee. Eventually, it may just move closer to 92.00"
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.00 and 91.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on US-EU trade war worries; South Korea won up
NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar amid ongoing trade tensions between the US and Europe after US President Donald Trump's latest push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs. Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%.
On the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brushed off "hysteria" of a trade war between Europe and the US, saying that the two would find a solution over Trump's wish to purchase Greenland. However, the dollar index fell to a two-week low Tuesday as White House's threats over Greenland triggered a broad selloff in US assets, supporting the Asian units. At 0830 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.51, lower than 98.56 Tuesday and 99.05 Monday.
The South Korean won jumped 0.5% against the dollar after President Lee Jae Myung said on Wednesday that authorities expect the won to strengthen to around the 1,400 per dollar level in a month or two, although domestic policies alone will not be able to stabilise foreign exchange markets. "According to relevant authorities in charge, it (the dollar-won exchange rate) is expected to fall to around 1,400 after a month or two," Lee said. Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Wednesday that if the US introduced higher tariffs on semiconductor imports, it would likely boost US prices, playing down worries about the proposed 100% duty.
The Chinese yuan fell nearly 0.1% against the dollar. President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that China should maintain manufacturing as a reasonable share of its economy and strike the right balance between consumption and investment as well as between demand and supply.
The Phillipine peso rose 0.2% against the dollar and the Thai baht was up 0.3%. The Indonesian rupiah was flat against the greenback after Indonesia's finance minister pledged on Tuesday to uphold the independence of the central bank, after lingering concerns about government interference in monetary policy drove the rupiah currency to a record intraday low on Tuesday.
The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the US unit. Data released Tuesday showed Taiwan's export orders hit a record in 2025, with total export orders rising 26% on year to $743.73 billion. Orders in December jumped 43.8% from a year earlier, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 36.3% rise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 21
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 91.25 | 90.70 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.20 | 90.80 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.25 | 90.85 |
| Foreign bank | 91.40 | 90.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.30 | 90.80 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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