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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel

 

MUMBAI – JSW Steel Ltd is expected to report a sharp year-on-year increase in its December quarter net profit due to capacity expansion. The profit will, however, be down sequentially for the second quarter in a row.

 

The consolidated net profit of the country's largest steel producer is estimated at INR 14.09 billion, up almost 72% on year but down over 13% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 19.73 billion by Nomura Equity Research and the lowest is INR 7.57 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

"HRC (hot rolled coils) prices declined by around INR 2,060/tonne QoQ (quarter-on-quarter), while coking coal prices in Australia rose around 9%, increasing cost pressures. The adverse spread between realisation and input cost is likely to weigh on profitability," Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. said in a report.  

 

The net sales of the Mumbai-based steel major are likely to be INR 445.11 billion, up almost 8% on year, according to estimates. The company's revenue, however, is expected to decline by about 1% quarter-on-quarter due to a drop in realisation amid lower steel prices and the blast furnace shutdown at the Vijayanagar facility in the December quarter. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 470.51 billion by JM Financial, while the lowest is INR 393.70 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.

 

JSW Steel's domestic production was 7.28 million tonnes in the December quarter, up 7% on year and down 5% on quarter. The company's production from its Ohio plant remained largely flat year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter at 0.20 million tonnes. The consolidated production for the December quarter was 7.48 million tonnes, up 6% on year and down 7% on quarter. 

 

The closure of the Vijaynagar plant has sequentially affected capacity utilisation in JSW Steel's domestic operations, the company said in a quarterly update. The capacity utilisation for domestic operations, excluding the Vijayanagar plant, was 93% in the latest quarter, while it was 85% including the Vijayanagar plant.

 

Kotak Securities Ltd. expects JSW Steel realisations to fall 3% quarter-on-quarter, whereas Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd. expects a 1% on-quarter decline. In its post-earnings call after the September quarter, the company had said it expects product prices to improve in November and December.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 64.93 billion in the reporting quarter, up over 16% year-on-year and down almost 9% quarter-on-quarter, according to brokerage estimates. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 68.50 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher and the lowest is INR 59.46 billion by JM Financial.

 

The company's EBITDA per tonne is likely to decline 11-20% due to higher input costs, according to estimates from five brokerages. During the September quarter earnings call, the company had said it expected a $3-$5 increase in coking coal prices in the December quarter.

 

"Average coking coal prices increased by 13% in the December quarter, while domestic iron ore prices increased by 5% QoQ to an average of INR 7,842 per tonne and rising to INR 8,000 per tonne by the end of the quarter," IDBI Capital said in its report.

 

Tuesday, JSW Steel shares ended at INR 1,160 on the National Stock Exchange, down 2.0% from the previous close. The stock is 0.3% higher than on Oct. 17, when the company announced its September quarter earnings.

 

Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,288. This is 8.3% higher than the current market price. Six brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation with an average target price of INR 1,186, while two have 'sell' recommendations, with an average target price of INR 995.

 

The company will report its December quarter earnings Friday.

 

The Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for JSW Steel from 12 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion: 

 

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Nomura Equity Research	454.81	19.73	65.19
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	470.30	19.50	68.50
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	443.96	18.48	68.11
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	393.70	16.50	66.50
YES Securities (India) Ltd	447.51	13.97	66.94
ICICI Securities Ltd	444.81	13.63	63.11
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	425.71	13.55	66.59
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	453.82	12.88	65.80
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	457.15	12.34	63.02
Kotak Securities Ltd	447.12	12.21	65.85
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd	431.93	8.68	60.04
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	470.51	7.57	59.46
Average	445.11	14.09	64.93

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.98

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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