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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at an over one-month low against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, the Indian unit erased a significant portion of its losses and ended above the 91-per-dollar mark owing to persistent dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India and weakness in the dollar index, they said.

 

"RBI held good support (for rupee) below 91.00 (a dollar) whole day," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But there was good buying (of dollars) pressure at all levels." After hitting a low of 91.0450 a dollar during the day, the rupee ended at 90.9750 on Tuesday, falling for the fifth consecutive trading day. It had settled at 90.9100 on Monday.

 

The Indian unit started the day broadly steady against the dollar, but fell shortly afterwards, as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. Importers have been actively hedging their foreign exchange exposure, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit, amid the latest developments on the tariff front and the prolonged delay in a trade deal between India and the US, dealers said. 

 

US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%. 

 

While state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically crucial 91-per-dollar mark, strong dollar demand from importers and FPIs eventually led to the Indian unit falling past the key level for the first time in over a month, dealers said. 

 

"The continued global uncertainties, including US pressure on Greenland, have led to a risk-off sentiment in markets. This has led to strong demand for precious metals, with gold and silver prices touching an all-time high," Sameer Karyatt, executive director and head of trading at DBS Bank India, said in a note. "The risk-off sentiment, along with strong offshore hedging in USDINR (dollar-rupee), has led to USDINR touching 91 per dollar. The current macro environment is likely to maintain depreciating pressure on the INR (rupee)."

 

FPI outflows have been a pain point for the Indian currency in recent times. So far in January, FPIs have withdrawn almost $2.50 billion worth of funds from domestic equities.

 

However, losses for the rupee after it fell past the key 91.00 level were limited as the RBI stepped in actively through dollar sales, dealers said. The RBI's steadfast support ensured the Indian unit did not touch its lifetime low of 91.0775, hit on Dec. 16. The central bank likely sold around $1.5 billion in the spot market on Tuesday, according to dealers.

 

"I was fully prepared for a sharp fall towards 91.30 once 91.00 broke, but RBI was aggressive in its support," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI has become extremely unpredictable in its intervention. We don't know if rupee will move 20 paise lower or higher from these levels now."

 

The dollar index fell sharply, hitting a two-week low during European trade, as renewed trade war concerns dented risk sentiment and fuelled selling in US assets. This also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

US President Donald Trump's push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs on European nations has led to uncertainty in markets, with investors shifting to safe-haven assets, including the Swiss franc and gold. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.49, lower than 99.05 Monday and 99.38 Friday.

 

A slump in domestic equities also exerted pressure on the domestic currency, as per dealers. On Tuesday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended lower by 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9750	90.9300	90.8700	91.0450	90.9100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	246.98	256.87	256.87	246.13	254.71

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures Tuesday as the RBI likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June and October, they said.

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 

 

The RBI's buy-sell swaps in the forwards market will add to its net outstanding short forward book, which rose for the third consecutive month in November. The central bank's net outstanding short forward positions rose to a seven-month high of $66.05 billion at the end of November. 

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee going ahead, which limited losses for premiums, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.72%, lower than the previous close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 246.98 paise, against 254.71 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and further developments on US tariffs, dealers said. While market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales, they are uncertain about the extent of its support.

 

"I think RBI just wanted to slow the depreciation today, there is no level in mind," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "I think we may see 91.10 breaking tomorrow (Wednesday) and then 91.30 and above levels happening."

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars, fearing depreciation of the local currency, which would weigh on the rupee. They expect FPI outflows to also exert pressure on the local unit. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.80-91.20 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 91.10.

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 India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index hits 2-week low on tariff worries; euro up

 

	AT 1505 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3483	1.3492	1.3411	1.3426
EUR/USD	1.1730	1.1732	1.1633	1.1645
NZD/USD	0.5836	0.5844	0.5789	0.5796
AUD/USD	0.6728	0.6747	0.6707	0.6712
USD/JPY	157.6170	158.6040	157.5860	158.1320
USD/CAD	1.3824	1.3878	1.3825	1.3868
EUR/JPY	184.8960	185.2138	183.7820	184.1562
CHF/USD	1.2663	1.2666	1.2523	1.2537
EUR/CHF	0.9263	0.9292	0.9261	0.9286

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index fell sharply, hitting a two-week low on Tuesday, as renewed trade-war concerns dented risk sentiment and sparked selling in US assets. US President Donald Trump's push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs on European nations has led to uncertainty in markets, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets, including the Swiss franc and gold. 

 

"Greenland is imperative for National and World Security. There can be no going back," Trump said late Monday, adding that he will meet several officials to discuss the matter at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, later this week. European leaders have widely condemned his calls for Greenland, and are set to discuss the issue and possible retaliatory measures at an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Thursday. At 1505 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.49, lower than 99.05 Monday and 99.38 Friday. 

 

Benefitting from weakness in the greenback, the euro jumped 0.6%. German producer prices fell broadly in line with expectations in December, decreasing 2.5% from a year earlier, data showed Tuesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 2.4?cline.

 

The pound sterling rose 0.4% against the dollar even after data showed Tuesday that the UK unemployment rate stayed at an elevated rate in November, while wage growth retreated, suggesting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the near future. A measure of payrolls data showed a decline of 43,000 in December from November, the biggest monthly fall since November 2020. A fall of 38,000 payrolls first reported for November was revised to show a decline of 33,000 people in payrolled employment. The jobless rate was at 5.1%, as expected.

The yen gained 0.2?ter Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Monday that the country will hold a snap election on Feb. 8. Takaichi's reappointment is broadly expected, which will likely further enable the prime minister's plans for more fiscal stimulus. The Australian dollar was up 0.3% against the US unit. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Premiums fall; RBI sells fwd dlrs to avert rupee liquidity drain

 

	AT 1310 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.0200	90.9300	90.9300	91.0450	90.9100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	247.98	256.87	256.87	246.13	254.71

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June and October, they said.

 

"RBI has been aggressive in spot today and limited all volatility," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But they don't want to drain liquidity as well, so receiving in forwards was inevitable."

 

The rupee fell past the psychologically-crucial 91-per-dollar level for the first time in over a month on Tuesday. However, the central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market actively to prevent the rupee from a sharp depreciation, dealers said. 

 

Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The RBI's buy-sell swaps in the forwards market will add to its net outstanding short forward book, which rose for the third consecutive month in November. The central bank's net outstanding short forward positions rose to a seven-month high of $66.05 billion at the end of November. 

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee going ahead, which limited losses for premiums, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a low of 91.0450 a dollar Tuesday, within spitting distance of its record low of 91.0775. 

 

At 1310 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.72%, lower than the previous close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 247.98 paise, against 254.71 paise Monday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls below 91/$1 but RBI's intervention prevents sharp losses

 

	AT 1200 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.0350	90.9300	90.9300	91.0450	90.9100

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell past the psychologically-crucial 91-per-dollar level for the first time in over a month as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a low of 91.0450 a dollar, within spitting distance of its record low of 91.0775. 

 

However, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars around 91.04, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the Indian unit from falling further, dealers said. "Once 91.00 broke, it was expected there would be a large move but RBI has tried to prevent that," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "It is better to do it now than later." 

 

Most market participants now expect the central bank to keep the Indian currency from falling further and hitting a record low for the rest of the day. However, if the Indian unit falls past 91.10 a dollar, they expect it to fall sharply towards 91.30. 

 

The rupee has been under downward pressure for the last four trading days as importers have been actively hedging their foreign exchange exposure, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit amid the prolonged delay in a trade deal between India and the US, dealers said. Strong foreign portfolio outflows have also been a painpoint for the local unit, they said. So far in January, FPIs have withdrawn almost $2.50 billion worth of funds from domestic equities.

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1200 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.80 and 91.10 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.10 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 20

 

NEW DELHI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 91.0200 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.9300 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9100 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	91.20	91.07	90.30	90.00
Private-sector bank	91.30	91.05	90.70	90.50
Foreign bank	91.20	91.09	90.60	-
Brokerage firm	91.80	91.05	90.30	89.60
Brokerage firm	91.70	91.07	90.50	90.30

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls as importers buy dollars; RBI steps in to prevent 91/$1

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9700	90.9300	90.9300	90.9850	90.9100

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell against the dollar, near the psychologically-crucial 91.00-per-dollar mark, as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a low of 90.9850 shortly after opening.

 

Meanwhole, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, in order to prevent the Indian currency from breaching the crucial 91.00 level, they said. However, the central bank's defence of the key level was not agressive in nature, they said. 

 

"For now, there seems to be some support around 91.00 (a dollar), but if it breaks then 91.30 is most likely to happen, unless there is some big intervention (by the RBI)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Importers have been actively hedging their foreign exchange exposures as they expect the Indian unit to weaken further owing to the prolonged delay in a trade deal between India and the US, dealers said. A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0945 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.4?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.80 and 91.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; yuan up after China leaves interest rate unch

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as market participants assessed the impact of US President Donald Trump's latest push to take control of Greenland by threatening additional tariffs. Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%. 

 

Trump has linked his drive to take control of Greenland to his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize, saying he no longer thought "purely of Peace" as the row over the island threatened to reignite a trade war with Europe.

 

The dollar index weakened as renewed trade-war concerns hit risk sentiment and sparked selling in US assets, supporting Asian units. At 0910 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.03, lower than 99.05 Monday and 99.38 Friday. 

 

The South Korean won was down 0.2% against the dollar. South Korea's economy likely expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in Oct–Dec, sharply slower than the 1.3% estimated in a Reuters poll. The Chinese yuan rose almost 0.1% against the dollar after China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for an eighth consecutive month in January on Tuesday, in line with expectations. The one-year loan prime rate was kept at 3.0%, while the five-year loan prime rate was unchanged at 3.5%.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the dollar. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto nominated his nephew to join the central bank's board of governors, his spokesperson said, amid growing concern about its independence. Further, as per a Reuters poll, Bank Indonesia is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged again on Wednesday to limit further weakness in the rupiah. The Thai baht was up 0.1% against the dollar, while the Malaysian ringgit was flat. (Pratiksha)

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 India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 20

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.10	90.80
Private-sector bank	91.20	90.80
Private-sector bank	91.30	90.75
Private-sector bank	91.10	90.70
Foreign bank	91.09	90.60
Brokerage firm	91.10	90.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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