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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Rapid expansion in Eternal Ltd.'s quick commerce business-to-consumer platform Blinkit is expected to support the net profit growth of the consumer-technology firm in the December quarter, according to brokerages. While Blinkit is yet to turn profitable, analysts said Eternal's recent change in its inventory model--moving to a first-party model from a third-party one--has improved visibility on its profitability.

 

Eternal's consolidated net profit for the reporting quarter is projected to increase 32% on year and 20% from the trailing quarter to INR 780.89 million, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. Estimates for the company's bottom line range from a high of INR 993 million by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 564 million by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. However, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. is the outlier, forecasting only INR 93 million profit for Eternal, formerly known as Zomato.

 

Eternal operates four major businesses--food delivery through the Zomato application, quick commerce via Blinkit, event discovery and ticketing through the District application, and business-to-business restaurant supplies through Hyperpure. Of these, only the food delivery business is profitable while the others continue to post losses, even at the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation level. Eternal will disclose its December quarter results Wednesday.

 

Blinkit has increasingly become the focal point of Eternal's operations. In the September quarter, the quick commerce platform accounted for nearly 70% of the company's top line, a sharp jump from about 24% in the December quarter a year earlier. Eternal's management had made it clear that profitability is not an immediate goal for Blinkit. "That's (profitability) not really a milestone we are focused on. For us, the way we look at the business is that there are parts of the business which are more mature, which are already EBITDA positive," Chief Financial Officer Akshant Goyal had told analysts in a post-earnings call in November.

 

Eternal's consolidated revenue for the December quarter is expected to grow three-fold on year to INR 162.27 billion, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. The estimates for the company's net sales range from a high of INR 177 billion by ICICI Securities to a low of INR 151.90 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

 

MODEL SHIFT
The company's top line for the December quarter will not be comparable year-on-year as Blinkit started following a first-party model from the September quarter onwards, shifting from a third-party model followed earlier. Blinkit previously operated as a marketplace, with sellers owning the inventory and Eternal earning commissions and fees. Under the new first-party model, Blinkit owns the inventory and sells directly to customers, giving Eternal greater control over pricing and discounts. In this structure, Eternal recognises the full value of goods sold as revenue.

 

Following the shift in its inventory model, the company said it now prefers quantifying select aspects of its business using a new metric termed net order value, rather than the gross order value. Net order value measures the value of customer orders after excluding discounts. Eternal made this shift because of an increasing divergence between the net order value and gross order value due to increased discounting by restaurants and a change in the nature of goods sold through Blinkit. In the September quarter, goods owned by the company accounted for about 80% of Eternal's net order value, a share that is expected to have risen to around 90% in the December quarter. Under the net order value metric, Eternal continues to recognise the full value of goods sold as revenue.

 

"Blinkit's inventory-led transition is largely complete, driving structurally higher gross margins and improving visibility on QC (quick commerce) profitability," Motilal Oswal said in a report. "With dark store addition intensity likely to remain lower than the 2QFY25–4QFY25 cycle and the QC network already near breakeven (with losses largely discretionary via marketing), we see scope for a medium-term earnings inflection even with an uptick in competitive intensity," the brokerage firm said. Blinkit likely added 284 new dark stores in the December quarter, compared to 272 net new stores in the September quarter, according to Kotak Securities.

 

Blinkit's net order value growth for the December quarter is expected at 122% on year, Motilal Oswal and Nuvama said. While Motilal Oswal expects Eternal's food delivery business to register a net order value growth of 12% on year, Nuvama has forecast a growth of 14.1%.

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. expects Blinkit's "exponential" year-on-year growth trends to continue in the December quarter, with the quick commerce platform expected to report market share gains on a relative basis. Blinkit has held on to its business model even as its competition has offered minimum-order fee waivers, alongside the entry of big players such as Reliance Industries Ltd.'s JioMart and US-based giant Amazon Plc.'s own offering. "In our view, Blinkit's relatively lower fee-waiver intensity versus peers could lead to a modest moderation in quarterly growth versus the strong run-rate of recent quarters. However, this should be offset by continued profitability improvement, supported by Blinkit's more restrained subsidy stance and the continued levy of handling charges," Nirmal Bang said.

 

Revenues from food ordering and delivery formed 18% of Eternal's top line in the September quarter, sharply lower than 42% in the year-ago quarter. The lone profitable business of Eternal likely performed well in the December quarter, supported by strong user acquisition over the past few quarters, Nirmal Bang said.

 

Eternal's consolidated EBITDA for the latest quarter is expected to grow 2% on year to INR 2.90 billion, according to the average of eight estimates. The projections for the company's EBITDA range from a high of INR 3.38 billion by JM Financial and a low of INR 2.62 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

At 1330 IST, shares of Eternal traded nearly 4% lower at INR 271.10 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen nearly 24% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Oct. 16.

 

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 390.29, which is around 45% higher than its spot price at 1330 IST on Monday. The remaining two have a 'sell' call on the stock with target prices of INR 200 and INR 320.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Eternal from nine brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

 

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
ICICI Securities Ltd	177,006	993	2,885
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	158,873	979	3,381
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	157,914	916	2,618
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	159,064	904	3,080
Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd	170,744	875	N.A.
Kotak Securities Ltd	169,704	863	2,923
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	151,896	841	3,062
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	160,318	564	2,630
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	154,921	93	2,638
Average	162,271	781	2,902

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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