India Stocks Outlook
Seen rangebound near term; Q3 results, Budget in focus
This story was originally published at 18:19 IST on 19 January 2026
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By Arundathi A R
MUMBAI – Analysts expect the market to be rangebound, with a negative bias, in the coming days due to the overhang of geopolitical issues and the backdrop of December-quarter corporate earnings. They see expectations from the Budget for 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) to give market direction, largely from next week onwards.
"The March quarter is seen better than the December quarter, as the large impact of GST cuts will start playing in through better consumption," Mangesh Bhadang, assistant vice president, equity, in the family office of Allcargo Group, said. He also sees the improvement in credit growth as having a positive impact on banking and financial stocks in the March quarter.
On Monday, the Nifty 50 settled at 25585.50 points, down 108.85 points, or 0.4%. The BSE Sensex closed at 83246.18 points, down 324.17 points, or 0.4%. Analysts peg resistance for the Nifty 50 at 25800–26000 points and support at 25300 points. Bhadang of Allcargo Group expects large double-digit returns from the market over a 12-month period.
On the earnings front, information technology services and consulting company LTIMindtree posted consolidated net profit of INR 9.71 billion for the December quarter on consolidated revenues of INR 107.81 billion. The company's net profit missed the Street view of INR 14.21 billion by a long way.
Index heavyweight ICICI Bank posted a fall in its net profit for the December quarter, with a doubling of provisions impacting the bottom line. It posted a net profit of INR 113.18 billion, down 4% on year. This was below analysts' expectation of INR 124.16 billion, the profit the bank would have posted had its provisions not doubled. Sequentially, net profit was down by over 8%.
HDFC Bank reported an 11.5% rise on year in net profit to INR 186.54 billion for the December quarter, above Street estimates, lifted by an increase in other income and a decline in provisions. Other income climbed 15.7% on year to INR 132.54 billion and provisions fell 10% on year to INR 28.38 billion in the reporting quarter.
Reliance Industries' consolidated net profit for the December quarter rose just 0.6% on year to INR 186.45 billion, below analysts' expectations of INR 196.63 billion. Its consolidated revenue rose over 10% on year to INR 2.695 trillion, beating expectations of INR 2.52 trillion.
Following Reliance Industries' subdued December-quarter earnings, most brokerages cut their estimates for the company's earnings per share by around 3?ch for 2025–26 (Apr-Mar) to FY28. Elara Securities has cut estimates by 11%, 8%, and 7% for FY26, FY27, and FY28, respectively, due to higher interest and tax expenses and lower retail earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation.
The engineering and manufacturing company Bharat Heavy Electricals reported a net profit of INR 3.82 billion for Oct-Dec, up over three times on year. Its consolidated revenues were INR 84.73 billion, up over 16% on year.
Hindustan Zinc reported a net profit of INR 38.79 billion for the December quarter, up around 47% on year and higher than analysts' expectations of INR 34.77 billion. Its revenue from operations rose around 28% on year to INR 109.22 billion.
On Budget expectations, brokerage Motilal Oswal sees a clear prioritisation of capital expenditure, which should grow 10.3% on year and remain close to 3.1% of GDP, with higher allocations for defence and allied industries, infrastructure-linked manufacturing, pharma, power, nuclear, electronics, critical minerals, and trade tariff-affected labour-intensive sectors. On the revenue front, the brokerage sees steady growth, with direct taxes broadly tracking nominal GDP and goods and services tax collections remaining muted, and continued reliance on non-tax revenues.
"With nominal GDP growth assumed at 10.1%, we expect the direct tax receipts to be broadly in line with the growth rate at INR 25.7 trillion in FY27," the brokerage said in its report. Market participants will keep an eye on the core sector output for December, scheduled to be released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry Tuesday. End
Edited by Saji George Titus
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