India Rupee Review
Falls for 4th day as importers buy dlr; RBI averts 91/$1
This story was originally published at 17:00 IST on 19 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Jan. 19, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar, reversing all of its early gains as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars actively, which ensured the Indian unit did not fall past the psychologically-crucial 91.00-per-dollar level, they said.
"RBI was there to just keep 91.00 (a dollar) from happening. There was good support from them," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But if demand (for dollars) continues like this, I think 91.00 will happen anyday now."
After touching a high of 90.6200 a dollar earlier in the day, the rupee settled at 90.9100 on Monday, falling for the fourth consecutive trading day. It ended at 90.8650 on Friday.
The rupee started the day sharply higher against the dollar as the dollar index fell after investors flocked to the safe haven yen and the Swiss franc following US President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements against Europe over Greenland, dealers said.
Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%. The tariff would be applicable until these countries strike a deal with the US for its purchase of Greenland.
Major EU states condemned the latest tariff threats as "blackmail" on Sunday with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.19, against 99.38 Friday and 99.36 Thursday. The index fell to 99.06 earlier on Monday.
However, the Indian unit gave up all of its gains shortly afterwards as oil and other importers rushed to buy dollars, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. Importers have been actively hedging their foreign exchange exposures as they expect the Indian unit to weaken further owing to the prolonged delay in the trade deal between India and the US, they said.
Some banks also bought dollars on behalf on foreign portfolio investors, looking to withdraw funds from Indian markets, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. So far in January, FPIs have pulled out almost $2.00 billion worth of funds from domestic equities. On Monday, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.4% lower each.
"Rising geopolitical uncertainty, including renewed US expansionary signals, has increased risk aversion and kept emerging market currencies under pressure," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities, said in a note. "The rupee has immediate support near 90.45, while resistance is seen around 91.25."
However, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, which prevented the Indian unit from falling past the key psyhological 91.00-per-dollar level, dealers said. However, the RBI's likely intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. The rupee hit a low of 90.9950 during the day, just shy of the 91.00 mark. Some dealers said the central bank likely sold around $1 billion in the spot market on Monday.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.9100 | 90.6950 | 90.6200 | 90.9950 | 90.8650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 254.71 | 25086 | 258.22 | 250.86 | 251.92 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a three-week high as banks persistently bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee, dealers said.
However, gains for the forward premiums were limited owing to a rise in US Treasury yields on Friday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed above 4.20% on Friday, the first time since Sept. 3, after US President Donald Trump at a White House event told his top economic adviser Kevin Hassett that he prefers Hassett at his current post instead of appointing him as the next US Federal Reserve chair. Hassett, who has echoed Trump's calls for lower interest rates, had been seen as the front-runner for the Fed chair. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.24% Friday from 4.17% Thursday.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, higher than 2.77% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 254.71 paise, against Friday's close of 251.92 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and further developments on US tariffs, dealers said. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met US Senator Steve Daines and US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor Monday. Both the sides had "productive exchange of views on our bilateral relationship," Goyal said.
Market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales. However, they are uncertain if the central bank would keep its support for the 91-per-dollar mark intact.
"91.00 level has happened before, so it will not be a big deal if it breaks, I feel," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "But once the figure breaks, it will be tough for RBI to support rupee, as there will be panic buying (of dollars) everywhere." The Indian currency hit a record low of 91.0775 on Dec. 16.
Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing depreciation of the local unit, which would weigh on the rupee, they said. Dealers expect FPI outflows to also exert pressure on the local unit. "The latest tariff news has added another layer of uncertainty for investors. Nothing is in favor of rupee right now. I saw these levels coming ever since 90.50 broke." a dealer at another private-sector bank said.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.70-91.20 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 91.00.
India Rupee: Premium at 4-wk high; importers buy fwd dlr as rupee nears 91/$
| AT 1320 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.9825 | 90.6950 | 90.6200 | 90.9950 | 90.8650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 257.21 | 25086 | 258.22 | 250.86 | 251.92 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose to a near four-week high as banks persistently bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee, dealers said. The rupee declined to a low of 90.9950 a dollar in the spot market on Monday, not too far from its record low of 91.0775, hit on Dec. 16.
"Importers have obviously increased hedging. Rupee has again come under pressure. 91.00 (a dollar) is inevitable now, unless RBI steps in aggressively," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars in the spot market on Monday to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 91-per-dollar mark, albeit not aggressively, dealers said.
However, gains for the forward premiums were limited owing to a rise in US Treasury yields on Friday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed above 4.20% on Friday, the first time since Sept. 3, after US President Donald Trump at a White House event told his top economic adviser Kevin Hassett that he prefers Hassett at his current post instead of appointing him as the next US Federal Reserve chair. Hassett, who has echoed Trump's calls for lower interest rates, had been seen as the front-runner for the Fed chair. 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.24% Friday from 4.17% Thursday.
At 1320 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, higher than 2.77% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 257.21 paise, against Friday's close of 251.92 paise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Erases all gains as importers buy dollars; RBI prevents 91/$1
| AT 1210 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.9700 | 90.6950 | 90.6200 | 90.9925 | 90.8650 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee gave up all its early gains and fell against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. However, dollar sales, likely by the Reserve Bank of India, limited losses for the Indian unit, they said.
"There is genuine demand (for dollars) in the market. We have been seeing it consistently," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Risk sentiment has not been in favour of the rupee for quite some time now."
Dealers said importers have been actively hedging their foreign exchange exposures, as they expect the Indian unit to depreciate further owing to the prolonged delay in the trade deal between India and the US. A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the local unit, they said. At 1210 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.6?ch.
However, some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, which prevented the Indian unit from falling past the key psyhological 91.00-per-dollar level, dealers said. However, the RBI's likely intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. "The rupee is more likely to touch 91.00 than not," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "RBI seems to be selling (dollars) around 90.90 but there is not enough supply." The rupee hit a low of 90.9925 a dollar during the day.
The Indian unit had risen sharply earlier in the day as the dollar index slipped after investors flocked to the safe haven yen and the Swiss franc following US President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements against Europe over Greenland, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.80 and 91.10 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 19
NEW DELHI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 90.8275 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.6950 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.8650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | - | 90.90 | 90.50 | - |
| Private-sector bank | 91.00 | 90.90 | 90.00 | 89.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.07 | 91.00 | 90.30 | 90.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.00 | 90.90 | 90.30 | 90.00 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as US-EU trade tensions hit risk appetite
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Monday as US President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats against European Union countries over his wish to purchase Greenland dented investors' risk appetite. Asian equities also declined on Monday amidst the latest development on tariffs.
Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland. On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%. The tariff would be applicable until these countries strike a deal with the US for its purchase of Greenland. Major EU states condemned the latest tariff threats as "blackmail" on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.
However, a fall in the dollar index on Monday limited losses for the Asian units. The dollar index fell in early trade as investors flocked to the safe haven yen and Swiss franc after Trump's latest tariff announcements against Europe over Greenland. At 0853 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.22, against 99.38 Friday and 99.36 Thursday. The index fell to 99.06 earlier on Monday.
The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% against the dollar, while both the South Korean won and Phillipines peso were down 0.1%. South Korea will seek favourable terms for US tariffs on imports of memory chips, a presidential office spokesperson said at a televised briefing on Sunday.
Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan was up 0.1% against the greenback after data on Monday showed China's economy grew 4.5% on year in the fourth quarter, slightly above analysts' expectations and in line with the government's annual growth target. However, data Monday showed China's new home prices extended their decline in December, falling 0.4% on month. The Malaysian ringgit was flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Rises sharply as dollar index falls amid US-EU trade tensions
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6600 | 90.6950 | 90.6200 | 90.7300 | 90.8650 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as the dollar index slipped after investors flocked to the safe haven yen and the Swiss franc following US President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements against Europe over Greenland, dealers said. Trump said over the weekend that he would impose an additional 10% import tariff from Feb. 1 on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland.
On Jun. 1, the tariff would be raised to 25%. The tariff would be applicable until these countries strike a deal with the US for its purchase of Greenland. Major European Union states condemned the tariff threats over Greenland as blackmail on Sunday, with France proposing to respond with a range of previously untested economic countermeasures.
At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.18, against 99.38 Friday and 99.36 Thursday. The index fell to 99.06 earlier on Monday. However, a fall in domestic equities limited gains for the Indian unit, they said. At 0930 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.5?ch.
"I am expecting importers to continue booking at these levels. The buy (dollars) on dips (in dollar-rupee) should hold after the latest tariff news," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Amid the latest developments on the tariff front and the lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers expect foreign portfolio investment outflows from Indian markets to continue, weighing on the Indian unit. So far in January, FPIs have withdrawn almost $2.00 billion worth of funds from domestic equities. Importers may also buy dollars, fearing further depreciation in the Indian unit, they said.
"USD/INR (dollar-rupee) has breached the key resistance zone of 90.30–90.50. With this barrier crossed, the all-time high of 91.0750 now stands as the next major resistance," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex said in a note. "On the downside, support lies in the 90.20–90.30 range."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.50 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 19
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.90 | 90.30 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.00 | 90.50 |
| Foreign bank | 90.85 | 90.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.95 | 90.45 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.20 | 90.60 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
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