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Informist, Monday, Jan. 19, 2026

 

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--IMF raises India's GDP growth forecast for FY26 by 70 bps to 7.3% 
--IMF raises India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 by 20 bps to 6.4%
--IMF forecasts India's GDP growth for FY28 at 6.4%
--IMF:Raised India FY26 growth forecast on better-than-view Jul-Sept outturn
--IMF: Raised India FY26 growth forecast on strong Oct-Dec momentum
--IMF: India growth seen easing in FY27 as cyclical, temporary factors wane
--IMF raises global GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 20 bps to 3.3%
--IMF raises US' GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 30 bps to 2.4%
--IMF raises China's GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 30 bps to 4.5%

 

NEW DELHI - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for India's GDP growth for the current financial year ending March by 70 basis points to 7.3% following a better-than-expected performance in the September quarter and strong momentum in the December quarter.

 

The IMF also raised the growth forecast for FY27 by 20 bps to 6.4% and projected growth in FY28 at 6.4%. Growth is projected to moderate in FY27 and FY28 "as cyclical and temporary factors wane", the IMF said its January edition of the World Economic Outlook report.

 

The Indian economy grew at a six-quarter high pace of 8.2% in the September quarter and averaged 8.0% growth in the first half of FY26. According to the government's first advance estimate on Jan. 7, India's GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 7.4%. In December, the Reserve Bank of India had projected FY26 GDP growth at 7.3%.

 

Earlier this month, the World Bank, too, raised its forecast for India's GDP growth for FY26 by 70 basis points to 7.2%. The World Bank forecast growth for FY27 at 6.5% and FY28 at 6.6%.

 

On a calendar year basis, India's GDP growth is projected at 6.3% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027, the IMF said. The IMF said that inflation in India is expected to go back to RBI's 4% target after a "marked decline in 2025 driven by subdued food prices."

 

The IMF raised its forecast for global growth for 2026 by 20 bps to 3.3% and projected growth during 2027 at 3.2%. Global growth is estimated at 3.3% for 2025.

 

"This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces," the IMF said. "Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector."

 

The Fund also raised the US GDP growth forecast for 2026 by 30 bps to 2.4%. It sees the US economy growing 2.0% in 2027 against 2.1% in 2025. The IMF projected China's growth for this calendar year at 4.5%, 30 bps higher than previously projected, and 4.0% for 2027.

 

"Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside," the IMF said. "Reevaluation of productivity growth expectations about AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linked companies to other segments and eroding household wealth." Trade tensions could also flare up, prolonging uncertainty and weighing more heavily on activity, the IMF added.  End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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