Income Growth
India to become upper middle-income country by 2030, SBI report says
This story was originally published at 13:05 IST on 19 January 2026
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NEW DELHI – India is set to become an upper middle-income country by 2030 and also the third largest economy in 2028, according to a report by the State Bank of India. "India can and will transition to the upper middle-income country, which has the threshold per capita GNI (gross national income) of around $4,500, in the next few years (assuming average growth of GNI per capita of around 8.3%)," SBI said in the report.
India's economy reached the $1-trillion mark 60 years after Independence and the $4-trillion mark in 2025, SBI said. India is likely to become a $5-trillion economy in another 2 years, the report said.
India achieved $1,000 per capita income in 2009 and is expected to achieve $3,000 per capita income in 2026, SBI said. "India set to touch $4,000 per capita in another 4 years in 2030 to transition to an Upper Middle Income country and join China and Indonesia at current classification," it said in the report.
To become a high-income country by 2047, based on the current per capita gross national income threshold of $13,936, India's per capita gross national income needs a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%. "This seems achievable as India's per capita GNI has grown by a CAGR of 8.3% during the last 23 years (2001-2024)," SBI said.
The report noted that the threshold level for a high-income country will also change by 2047. If the threshold for a high-income country rises to $18,000, India's per capita gross national income needs a compound annual growth rate of 8.9% in the next 23 years, SBI said. "Assuming 0.6% average population growth and average deflator of China, Japan, UK, USA and Euro area of around 2% (average between 1992-2024), this translates into growth of nominal GDP in dollar terms of around 11.5% for the next 23 years. India should continue its reform agenda so that we can get higher incremental growth required to reach the high-income bracket," it said. End
US$1 = INR 90.95
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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