India Rupee Review
Falls most in 2 mos on dlr buys for importers, NDF expiry
This story was originally published at 16:50 IST on 16 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jan. 16, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar, posting its biggest single-day fall in nearly two months, as banks bought dollars continuously for importers and to cover maturing positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. Minimal intervention by the Reserve Bank of India to support the Indian unit also weighed on the rupee, they said.
"The broader expectation was that the RBI will not let the rupee fall below 90.50 (a dollar), but once that level broke, the RBI was barely there in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Every time the RBI lets a key level break, it obviously leads to more buying (of dollars) pressure."
The rupee settled at a one-month low of 90.8650 a dollar on Friday, 0.6% lower than its previous close of 90.2950. The Indian unit depreciated 0.8% against the greenback this week.
The domestic currency started the day lower against the dollar as the dollar index rose to an over six-week high Thursday after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the next few months, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.32, against 99.36 Thursday and 99.06 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.49 on Thursday, its highest level since Dec. 2.
The Indian unit fell further shortly after opening as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, expecting the rupee to depreciate further in the near term amid lingering uncertainty around the India-US trade deal, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited, as the RBI likely stepped in by selling dollars at around 90.45, they said. "Even when RBI has been proactive in supporting the rupee so far this year, the buying (of dollars) has not stopped," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
As banks bought the greenback to cover maturing positions in the NDF market at the daily reference rate fixing, the Indian unit fell past the key 90.50 level, dealers said. Persistent dollar buying triggered stop-losses on short-dollar bets around 90.50, further exacerbating the rupee's fall, they said.
The central bank likely stepped in by selling dollars at around 90.80, helping the Indian unit erase some of its losses, dealers said. However, the central bank's intervention was not aggressive, they said. Market participants expressed confusion about the RBI's recent intervention strategy, calling it unpredictable. Some traders also said that the RBI's unpredictable intervention playbook has prompted them to keep trading positions light.
"RBI had been intervening consistently around 90.30 for the last few days and created shorts (short dollar bets) in the market and then suddenly one day they have just let the rupee move 50 paise lower," a dealer at a brokerage said. "The market has become very uncertain about levels now. However, I still expect the rupee will continue falling."
Importers stepped up their dollar purchases in the last leg of trade, following which the rupee fell to its day's low of 90.8750 a dollar, dealers said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.8650 | 90.3700 | 90.3600 | 90.8750 | 90.2950 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 251.92 | 245.11 | 256.52 | 245.11 | 245.26 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended at a near three-week high as banks continuously bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee, dealers said.
Banks also bought dollars for forward delivery to take advantage of arbitrage between onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, which supported premiums, dealers said. The absence of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the RBI to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity also supported forward premiums, they said.
However, a rise in US Treasury yields limited the gains in forward premiums, they said. US Treasury yields rose Thursday after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.17% Thursday from 4.15% Wednesday.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, up from 2.72% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 251.92 paise, against Wednesday's close of 245.26 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Monday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and further developments on the India-US trade deal, dealers said. Market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales. However, they are uncertain about the extent of the central bank's intervention. "If RBI decides to intervene only mildly next week as well, the rupee can go past 91.00 easily," a dealer at another state-owned bank said.
Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing depreciation of the local unit, which would weigh on the rupee, they said. Dealers expect FPI outflows to also exert pressure on the local unit. So far in January, FPIs have net sold equities worth $1.60 billion.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.60-91.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 91.00.
India Rupee - World FX: Yen up on intervention warning from finance minister
| AT 1542 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3402 | 1.3406 | 1.3371 | 1.3379 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1610 | 1.1616 | 1.1603 | 1.1608 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5758 | 0.5764 | 0.5742 | 0.5741 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6703 | 0.6707 | 0.6696 | 0.6697 |
| USD/JPY | 158.1840 | 158.7040 | 157.9700 | 158.6230 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3891 | 1.3900 | 1.3885 | 1.3889 |
| EUR/JPY | 183.6460 | 184.2141 | 183.4620 | 184.1300 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2467 | 1.2473 | 1.2437 | 1.2446 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9311 | 0.9330 | 0.9311 | 0.9322 |
MUMBAI – The Japanese yen rose against the dollar on Friday after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo would not rule out any options to counter weakness in the yen, including coordinated intervention with the US. "Decisive action, including all available options," was being considered by the Ministry of Finance, he said. The yen was up 0.3% against the greenback.
The dollar hit an over six-week high on Thursday on strong labour data from the US. US initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended Jan. 10, data showed Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week.
Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid Thursday called inflation "too hot", while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that incoming US economic data looks promising despite uncertainties and continued risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment mandates.
At 1540 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.31, against 99.36 Thursday and 99.06 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.49 on Thursday, its highest level since Dec. 2.
The pound sterling was down 0.2% against the dollar before crucial data releases next week. UK employment and Consumer Price Index data will provide fresh cues on the Bank of England's monetary policy.
The euro was flat against the dollar on Friday. Figures released this Friday confirmed that German consumer Inflation eased to the European Central Bank's target of 2% in December. Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premium at 3-wk high as importers buy fwd dlrs on rupee's fall
| AT 1340 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.7200 | 90.3700 | 90.3600 | 90.7850 | 90.2950 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 254.08 | 245.11 | 256.52 | 245.11 | 245.26 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium rose to a near three-week high as banks continuously bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing a further fall in the rupee, dealers said. The rupee slumped to a low of 90.7850 a dollar in the spot market on Friday.
"The dollar-rupee spiked so much. Importers started hedging actively after that," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There was some arbitrage-related paying in the morning as well."
Banks also bought dollars for forward delivery, to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, which also supported the premiums, dealers said. Lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the Reserve Bank of India to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums, they said. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market Friday to limit losses for the rupee, as per dealers.
However, a rise in US Treasury yields limited the gains in forward premiums, they said. US Treasury yields rose Thursday after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.17% Thursday from 4.15% Wednesday.
At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, higher than 2.72% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 254.08 paise, against Wednesday's close of 245.26 paise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Falls more on dlr buys for NDF expiry, oil cos; stop-losses hit
| AT 1150 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6675 | 90.3700 | 90.3600 | 90.6700 | 90.2950 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell further against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for oil marketing companies and due to the maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. "There were a lot of bids (of dollars) related to NDF expiry at fix (referance rate fixing)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Once the 90.50 (a dollar) level was broken, there were stop-losses hit and more buying came in."
Oil marketing companies and other importers bought dollars, fearing further weakness in the Indian currency, dealers said. Continuous dollar purchases led to stop-losses being triggered on short dollar bets around 90.50, dragging the rupee to a low of 90.6700 a dollar, they said.
While the Reserve Bank of India earlier tried to prevent losses in the Indian currency by likely intervening around 90.45 a dollar, it eventually let go of the Indian currency and was missing in action once the rupee fell past the key 90.50 level, dealers said. This further exacerbated the fall in the rupee, they said.
"I was expecting RBI will come in at 90.50, but that did not happen," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If they continue like this, 91.00 may be hit again. Maybe not today (Friday), but very soon."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 16
NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 90.5700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.3700 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.2950 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 90.90 | 90.70 | 89.80 | 89.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.00 | 90.80 | 90.00 | 89.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.00 | 90.70 | 90.00 | 89.50 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Down as dollar index hits 6-wk high; RBI expected to limit fall
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.4000 | 90.3700 | 90.3600 | 90.4400 | 90.2950 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell against the dollar Friday as the dollar index rose to an over six-week high Thursday after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, dealers said. Comments by US Federal Reserve officials also boosted the dollar index.
The US jobless claims data further reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the next few months. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday called inflation "too hot", while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that incoming US economic data looks promising despite uncertainties and continued risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment mandates.
At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.30, against 99.36 Thursday and 99.06 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.49 on Thursday, its highest level since Dec. 2.
However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales around the current dollar-rupee levels, to keep the Indian unit from falling sharply. The RBI had earlier actively intervened around 90.30 a dollar to support the Indian unit, they said. On Wednesday, the central bank likely sold around $1 billion-$1.5 billion in the spot market, according to dealers.
"USD/INR (Dollar/rupee) is likely to face strong resistance in the 90.30–90.50 zone. A sustained break above this area could open the path toward 91.20–91.50," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "On the downside, 89.50 remains a key support. For now, the rupee walks a narrow bridge — supported by the RBI below, tested by the dollar above, and guided by sentiment that is still waiting to turn."
Further, amidst lingering uncertainty over an India-US trade deal, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee, which also kept the Indian unit under pressure, they said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.10 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.50 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr index hits 6-wk high; Taiwan dlr up
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday as the dollar index hit an over six-week high on Thursday after data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for the next several months.
US initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended Jan. 10, data showed Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims for the latest week. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Thursday called inflation "too hot", while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that incoming US economic data looks promising despite uncertainties and continued risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment mandates.
At 0853 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.30, against 99.36 Thursday and 99.06 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.49 on Thursday, its highest level since Dec. 2.
The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the dollar, the most amongst its peers. South Korea's central bank on Thursday signalled an end to its current easing cycle after keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50%. "I can undeniably say that the forex market situation was an important factor in coming to today's (policy rate) decision," Governor Rhee Chang-yong said.
The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the dollar, while the Indonesian rupiah was down 0.1%. Bucking the trend, the Taiwan dollar rose almost 0.1% against the greenback after the US and Taiwan reached a trade deal Thursday that the US Commerce Department said would drive a "massive reshoring of America's semiconductor sector." Taiwan Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun said on Friday that the country aims to become a close strategic artificial intelligence partner with the US, thanks to a deal to reduce tariffs and boost Taiwanese investment in the country.
The Chinese yuan was flat against the US unit. China's central bank announced on Thursday cuts to sector-specific interest rates to provide an early boost to the economy, and signalled it has room this year for further reductions in the banks' cash reserve requirements and for broader rate cuts. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 16
NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.55 | 90.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.50 | 90.15 |
| Foreign bank | 90.50 | 90.10 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.50 | 90.10 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.60 | 90.05 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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