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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The unprecedented rally in gold and silver is expected to continue through the first half of 2026, with prices expected to touch $5,000 per ounce and $100 per ounce, respectively, according to multinational investment bank UBS AG. However, the momentum in both precious metals is likely to taper off in the second half of the year. The bank's year-end target for gold is $4,500 per ounce and $75 per ounce for silver.

 

"... the key theme that we have for 2026 is that we think that it will be a year of two halves," Joni Teves, precious metals specialist at UBS Global Economics and Strategy Research, said in a virtual media briefing Wednesday. "So the first half of the year, we think that a strong upward momentum can continue. The drivers for gold's rally over the past year or so, the rally that really started in 2022, can continue as investors diversify into gold," Teves said.

 

Geopolitical tensions and global uncertainties will support gold's role as a safe haven. However, in the short term, a healthy consolidation is required before the next leg higher. 

 

Silver, which usually outperforms gold on the upside but also reacts quite significantly more than gold on the downside, is also expected to keep hitting record highs before momentum tapers off during the second half of the year. "... as we expect gold to rally in the first half, that should also drag silver higher. But towards the end of the year, we expect prices to taper off as gold's bull run starts to come to an end," she added. 

 

The likely price decline is likely to be deriven by expectations that the US Federal Reserve's easing cycle will end. "... as the Fed starts to reach the end of its easing cycle, as growth starts to recover, we think that gold should also start to taper off," Teves said.

 

Both precious metals will show high volatility throughout the year. Gold's implied volatility is now over 21% from around 13% a year ago, while silver volatility is above 60%, Andrew Matthews, global head of precious metals distribution at UBS AG, said. "... investors have to be prepared to weather pullbacks in the price, given the higher volatility, given the higher uncertainty and headline risk that goes into trading," Matthews said.

 

UBS also expects global central banks to continue buying gold in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than in recent years, which will continue to support the market. "... central banks, other official institutions like sovereign wealth funds, we believe they tend to buy on dips, providing that downward cushion. And we think that that continues into 2026 as well." Teves said.

 

Similarly, strong flows are also expected in physical gold, mainly in Asian markets such as China and India. "... we've seen such a diversification geographically of ETF demand, not only to the traditional holders of US-based physically backed or US listings of physically backed gold ETFs. We've seen the shift in both India and China this year," Matthews said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.29

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati and Reshma Ravi

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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