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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased early gains and ended at a four-week low against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian currency were limited owing to likely dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, they said. 

 

"We saw quite a bit of selling (of dollars) in the morning, but then bids (dollar buys) took over the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "After that, the RBI just kept a supporting hand around some levels."

 

After rising to 89.9600 per dollar earlier in the day, the rupee ended at 90.2950 on Wednesday, against 90.1900 on Tuesday. On the contrary, other Asian currencies gained against the dollar, rising 0.1-0.2%. 

 

The Indian unit started the day on a weak footing against the US unit as the dollar index gained after US inflation data was broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates later this month, dealers said.  

 

Fed funds futures currently price in a 97% probability that the US central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its next two-day meeting ending on Jan. 28, according ‌to the ‌CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.10, against 99.17 Tuesday and 98.89 Monday.

 

However, shortly after opening, the rupee gave up all losses and rose above the 90-per-dollar mark, as state-owned banks aggressively sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, dealers said. The likely heavy intervention came after the central bank consistently intervened around the 90.25-90.30 level for the last few trading days, they said. Dealers said the central bank sold around $1 billion to $1.5 billion in the spot market on Wednesday. The RBI's heavy-handed intervention was a repeat of the strategy it had opted for several times since last month.

 

"The market has become used to this intervention pattern now. RBI protects a particular level for some days and then comes in the market aggressively one day," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. The Indian unit was also supported by dollar sales by foreign banks, likely to fund foreign inflows into corporates, some dealers said.

 

However, the rupee's gains did not last long as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "The buying interest has continued in all sessions now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I don't think these big interventions have helped the rupee much. The rupee always crawls back to similar levels."

 

Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of FPIs seeking to withdraw funds from Indian equities, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. So far in January, FPIs have net sold equity worth $1.56 billion. On Wednesday, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 0.5% lower.

 

Dealers said the central bank sporadically intervened by selling dollars at around 90.25 a dollar during the day, which kept the Indian unit from falling past the key technical support of 90.30.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2950	90.2500	89.9600	90.3050	90.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	245.26	242.97	249.42	241.79	246.15

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium ended off highs as some banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting relatively higher levels, dealers said. The forward premium had risen earlier in the day after the RBI's three-year dollar-rupee buy-sell swap drew strong demand on Tuesday, with bids nearly three times the $10 billion auction size, dealers said. 

 

The RBI set a cut-off premium of 728.00 paise at the auction of its three-year $10 billion buy-sell swap Tuesday. Of the 348 bids worth $29.94 billion received, the RBI accepted 42 bids worth $10 billion at the swap auction.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.72%, tad higher than 2.71% Tuesday. It had touched a high of 2.77?rlier in the day. On an absolute basis, the premium was 245.26 paise, against Tuesday's close of 246.15 paise. 

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed on Thursday due to municipal corporation elections in Maharashtra. On Friday, the rupee will take cues from movement in the dollar index and further developments on the India-US trade deal, dealers said. Market participants will also keep a close watch on the possible US Supreme Court ruling Wednesday on the legality of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. 

 

Market participants expect the RBI to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales, particularly after its active spot-market intervention so far this week. Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing depreciation of the local unit, which would weigh on the rupee, they said. Dealers expect FPI outflows to continue exerting pressure on the local unit.  

 

"Rupee, however high it goes, is sold off at the highs with FPIs being the main culprit, who buy dollars while other importers also fall in line," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 89.80-90.30 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30.

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 India Rupee - World FX: Yen hits 18-mo low on news of likely snap elections

 

	AT 1450 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3452	1.3455	1.3420	1.3421
EUR/USD	1.1649	1.1653	1.1636	1.1642
NZD/USD	0.5747	0.5751	0.5731	0.5736
AUD/USD	0.6695	0.6702	0.6678	0.6678
USD/JPY	158.7710	159.4520	158.6730	159.1690
USD/CAD	1.3889	1.3898	1.3881	1.3890
EUR/JPY	184.9470	185.5710	184.8280	185.3055
CHF/USD	1.2460	1.2494	1.2457	1.2480
EUR/CHF	0.9347	0.9349	0.9324	0.9325

 

NEW DELHI – The yen fell to an 18-month low against the dollar due to concerns about looser fiscal and monetary policy in the country after media reports said Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering snap lower house elections on Feb. 8 after dissolving the house next week. The snap election, if called next month, would be just about four months into Takaichi's term as prime minister. Market participants are watchful of likely intervention by Japanese authorities to support the currency, as it approaches 160 to the dollar.

 

The pound sterling rose 0.2% against the dollar even after Bank of England policymaker ‌Alan Taylor said on Wednesday that interest rates should continue to fall as inflation is likely to settle around the central bank's 2% target soon. "We can now see inflation at target in mid-2026, rather than having to wait until 2027 as in our previous projection," Taylor said.

 

The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar. France's economy likely grew modestly in the final quarter of last year, the Bank of France said in its latest business sentiment survey on Tuesday.

 

The dollar index remained steady, hovering near a one-month high, after a broadly in line with expectations US inflation data reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold later this month. Fed funds futures are currently pricing an ‍implied 97.2% probability that the US central bank will remain on hold when its next two-day meeting concludes on Jan. 28, according ‌to the ‌CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 1450 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.11, against 99.17 Tuesday and 98.89 Monday. The Australian dollar was up 0.2% against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium rises after RBI's swap auction draws strong demand

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1900	90.2500	89.9600	90.2675	90.1900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	246.42	242.97	249.42	241.79	246.15

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar/rupee forward premium rose Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India's three-year dollar/rupee buy-sell swap drew strong demand on Tuesday, with bids nearly three times the $10 billion auction size, dealers said. 

 

The RBI set a cut-off premium of 728.00 paise at the auction of its three-year $10 billion buy-sell swap Tuesday. Of the 348 bids worth $29.94 billion received, the RBI accepted 42 bids worth $10 billion at the swap auction.

 

"There is surplus dollar in the system now after the kind of demand we saw at the swap auction," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "That's why we are seeing lot of paying. Unless RBI starts neutralising its spot interventions in forwards, we may continue seeing paying interest."

 

A fall in US Treasury yields on Tuesday also supported the forward premiums, some dealers said. US Treasury yields inched lower Tuesday after inflation in the US came in a tad below expectations in December. The data cemented bets of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates at least twice in 2026, though it is seen holding rates at its upcoming January meeting. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.18% Tuesday from 4.19% Monday. 

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.73%, higher than 2.71% Tuesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 246.42 paise, against Tuesday's close of 246.15 paise. (Pratiksha)

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 India Rupee: Steady, gives up all gains as importers continuously buy dlrs

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2000	90.2500	89.9600	90.2675	90.1900

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased all its early gains against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. The Indian unit had hit a high of 89.9600 a dollar earlier in the day.   

The Indian currency rose sharply as state-owned banks aggressively sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The likely heavy intervention came after the central bank intervened around the 90.25-90.30 level for the last few trading days, they said. 

 

"These (rupee) levels are wonderful for buyers (of dollars)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Now that RBI has made it a pattern to support the rupee with intent, we may see some importers waiting for such levels before buying (dollars) at just any level."

 

The Indian unit was also supported by dollar sales by foreign banks, likely for foreign fund inflows into corporates, some dealers said. A rise in domestic equities also supported the local unit, they said. At 1230 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.1?ch. 

 

Dealers expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales if the rupee approaches the key support level of 90.30. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.90 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 14

 

NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 90.1800 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.2500 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.1900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	90.30	89.80	-
Private-sector bank	90.50	90.35	89.90	89.80
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.30	89.50	89.00
Brokerage firm	90.60	90.40	89.80	89.50

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Rises as RBI aggressively sells dlrs; importers' buys cap gains

 

	AT 0935 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0800	90.2500	89.9600	90.2675	90.1900

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee rose against the dollar, briefly moving above the 90-per-dollar mark, as state-owned banks aggressively sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Shortly after opening lower at 90.2500 a dollar, the rupee touched a high of 89.9600. 

 

"The market is used to such interventions (by the RBI) now. These are quick and obvious," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Considering they (RBI) intervened right after opening, they would not have had to sell (dollars) much." In the recent past as well, the central bank has intervened heavily in the market to pull the rupee higher. 

 

However, gains in the Indian unit were capped as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. A rise in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The dollar index inched up after US inflation data was broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates later this month. At 0935 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.16, against 99.17 Tuesday and 98.89 Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.90 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Indonesian rupiah up post central bk's remarks

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as traders exercised caution ahead of a possible US Supreme Court ruling Wednesday on the legality of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. However, a rise in the dollar index after the release of US inflation data for December on Tuesday, weighed on the Asian units.

 

The dollar index inched up after US inflation data was broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates later this month. The US CPI rose 0.3% on month and 2.7% on year, matching November's gain. The increase in the CPI was in line with economists' expectations.

 

Fed funds futures are currently pricing an ‍implied 95.6% probability that the US central bank will remain on hold when its next two-day meeting concludes on Jan. 28, according ‌to the ‌CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 0905 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.18, up against 99.17 Tuesday and 98.89 Monday.

 

Both the South Korean won and the Phillipine peso were down 0.1% against the greenback. The Chinese yuan was flat against the US unit even after data released Wednesday showed the country's full-year trade surplus came in at $1.189 trillion - a figure on par with the GDP of a top-20 economy globally like Saudi Arabia. Outbound shipments grew 6.6% in value terms on year in December, compared with a 5.9% increase in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 3.0% increase.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.1% against the dollar after Indonesia's central bank said Wednesday it would continue intervening in the foreign exchange market to ensure moves in the rupiah exchange rate reflects the currency's fundamentals. The rupiah has been on weak footing so far this year, hitting its lowest level since April on Tuesday. The Malaysian ringgit was also 0.1% higher. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 14

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.50	90.10
Private-sector bank	90.35	90.15
Private-sector bank	90.50	90.15
Foreign bank	90.45	90.00
Brokerage firm	90.45	90.15
Brokerage firm	90.40	89.90

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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