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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar Tuesday as sentiment around the currency weakened amid a further delay in trade talks with the US, dealers said. The negative impact of the delay in inclusion of India's fully accessible route bonds in Bloomberg's flagship Global Aggregate Index also weighed on the currency, dealers said. 

 

"Not a lot is going in favour of the rupee at the moment, which is helping the dollar," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Only they (RBI) are holding the other end," he said. 

 

The rupee ended at 90.1900 per dollar, slightly lower than its previous close of 90.1525. The Indian currency fell to a low of 90.3000 per dollar during the day but then recovered.

 

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country doing business with Iran would face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the US. The announcement came as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran, which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years. Iran's major trading partners include China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and India. The US currently levies a 50% tariff on imports from India, including a 25% penalty for purchasing crude oil from Russia.

 

Lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal has been a big pain point for the Indian unit, dealers said. A commerce ministry official said Monday that no trade talks are scheduled with the US this week. The statement came after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor claimed that the next call on the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement would be held on Tuesday.

 

"Today's news around potential tariffs on Iran's trade partners further increases the uncertainty for India's tariffs and is also negative at the margin for INR," MUFG Bank Ltd. said in a note. 

 

Sentiment around the local currency soured further after Bloomberg announced a delay in including India's fully accessible route bonds in its flagship Global Aggregate Index. The index service provider said it would continue to review Indian bonds and that the next update on their inclusion in the index would be in mid-2026. The inclusion, which was expected to be confirmed this week, would have led to dollar inflows to India. 

 

However, as the rupee approached its day's low, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent a sharp depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. This limited losses for the local currency, they said. 

 

A rise in oil prices also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. Oil prices ended at a seven-week high Monday, as concerns about supply disruptions from Iran amid nationwide protests trumped prospects of more supply from Venezuela. Both countries are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1900	90.2450	90.1750	90.3000	90.1525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	246.15	232.69	246.95	232.69	234.63

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose on Tuesday, as the result of the Reserve Bank of India's buy-sell swap auction showed huge demand for forward dollars, dealers said. 

 

At the three-year dollar-rupee buy-sell swap for $10 billion Tuesday, the central bank received 348 bids worth almost $30 billion. The central bank purchased $10 billion from market participants at the spot rate and swapped the dollars for three years later on Jan. 16, 2029.

 

Forward premiums also rose as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers who feared the rupee may weaken further, dealers said. The rupee fell to a low of 90.3000 per dollar in the spot market on Tuesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.71%, up from 2.60% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 246.15 paise, against Monday's close of 234.63 paise. (Kabir Sharma)

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee may take cues from movements in the dollar index after the release of the US CPI for December. US core inflation is expected to have risen to 2.7% in December from 2.6% the previous month, with the headline figure growing steadily by 2.7%, according to a poll by FX Street. Month-on-month, both headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown by 0.3%.

 

The rupee may also take cues from crude oil prices, dealers said. Any development on the India-US trade deal will also be key, they said. 

 

Market participants expect the central bank to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales, particularly after its active spot-market intervention. Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing depreciation in the local unit, they said.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 89.80-90.30 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar rises before Dec US CPI data; yen down 0.5%

 

	AT 1544 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3479	1.3486	1.3462	1.3463
EUR/USD	1.1671	1.1675	1.1654	1.1664
NZD/USD	0.5769	0.5780	0.5764	0.5769
AUD/USD	0.6704	0.6717	0.6699	0.6709
USD/JPY	158.9010	159.0470	157.9060	158.1600
USD/CAD	1.3875	1.3888	1.3868	1.3879
EUR/JPY	185.4640	185.5400	184.2700	184.5000
CHF/USD	1.2536	1.2551	1.2530	1.2534
EUR/CHF	0.9311	0.9312	0.9296	0.9304

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose on Tuesday ahead of the release of US inflation data for December. At 1500 IST, the dollar index was 98.97, against Monday's close of 98.89 and Friday's close of 99.14.

 

The US core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, is expected to have risen to 2.7% in December from 2.6% the previous month, with the headline figure growing steadily by 2.7%, according to a poll by FX Street. Month-on-month, both headline and core CPI are estimated to have grown by 0.3%.

 

Globally, investors feared the lack of independence of the US Federal Reserve, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hit back at the subpoenas served by the US Department of Justice, calling it "a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president."

 

The pound sterling was up 0.1% against the dollar. UK GDP and the factory data for November, scheduled for Thursday, are expected to show that the economic growth remained flat after declining 0.1% in October. Meanwhile, manufacturing output is estimated to have grown 0.5%, while industrial output remained flat.

 

The yen was down 0.5% against the dollar. The yen continued to weaken amid prospects of snap elections in Japan as early as next month. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shared ‌concerns about the yen's recent "one-sided depreciation". (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:Premium up before RBI swap auction result; importers buy fwd dlr

 

	AT 1419 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2800	90.2450	90.2025	90.3000	90.1525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	239.99	232.69	242.65	232.69	234.63

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose on Tuesday ahead of the result of the swap auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India earlier in the day, dealers said. Some importers bought dollars for forward delivery noting the pressure on spot rupee, which also supported premiums, dealers said.

 

The RBI held an auction of a three-year dollar-rupee buy-sell swap for $10 billion. The central bank will purchase $10 billion from market participants at the spot rate and swap these dollars three years later on Jan. 16, 2029.

 

Forward premiums also rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear the rupee may weaken further, dealers said. The rupee fell to a low of 90.3000 a dollar in the spot market on Tuesday.

 

At 1419 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.64%, higher than 2.60% Monday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 239.99 paise, against Monday's close of 234.63 paise. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Dn; RBI dlr sales offset Bloomberg index inclusion delay impact

 

	AT 1237 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2600	90.2450	90.2025	90.2800	90.1525
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	239.65	232.69	241.30	232.69	234.63

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained down against the dollar and moved in a narrow range as the negative impact of delay in inclusion of India's fully accessible route bonds in Bloomberg's flagship Global Aggregate Index was offset by state-owned banks' dollar sales on behalf of RBI, dealers said. 

 

"They are there around that level since yesterday, seems like a strong support," a dealer at a private bank said. "Sentiment was already weak due to trade tensions and this news has further soured the mood," he said. 

 

The index service provider said it would continue to review Indian bonds, and that the next update on the inclusion of Indian bonds in the index would be in mid-2026. The inclusion was expected to be confirmed this week itself and would have led to inflows of dollars into the Indian economy. 

 

As the rupee approached the day's low, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

Uncertainty over the India-US trade deal remains a big pain point for the Indian unit, dealers said. A commerce ministry official said Monday that there were no trade talks scheduled with the US this week. The statement came after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor claimed Monday that the next call on the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement would be held on Tuesday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 13

 

NEW DELHI – At 1208 IST, the rupee was at 90.2625 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.2450 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.1525 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	90.50	90.30	90.00	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.70	90.50	89.50	89.20
Brokerage firm	90.80	90.50	89.70	89.50
Brokerage firm	90.60	90.40	90.00	89.80

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Falls as risk appetite hit on US tariff woes, Asian units down

 

	AT 0924 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2350	90.2450	90.2300	90.2650	90.1525

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell against the dollar Tuesday as latest developments on the US tariff front dampened investors' risk sentiment, dealers said. Weakness in Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian currency, they said. 

 

US President Donald Trump said Monday that any country doing business with Iran would face a tariff rate of 25% on trade with the US. The announcement came as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran, which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years. Iran's major trading partners include China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and India. The US currently levies 50% tariff on India, including 25% as penalty for buying crude oil from Russia.

 

Lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal has been a big pain point for the Indian unit, dealers said. A commerce ministry official said Monday that there were no trade talks scheduled with the US this week. The statement came after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor claimed Monday that the next call on the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement would be held on Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars in the spot market to keep the Indian unit from depreciating sharply. The central bank had intervened around 90.25 on Monday, they said. "There will be continuous buying (of dollars) in the market with all the news on the tariff front," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI may be present, but I am not sure what will be the extent of the intervention."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as risk appetite weak on US tariff woes

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Tuesday as risk sentiment was dampened, with traders assessing US President Donald Trump's fresh tariff announcement. Traders also weighed the impact of a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move that threatens the US central bank's independence. 

 

Trump on Monday said any country doing business with Iran would face a tariff of 25% on trade with the US. The announcement came as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran, which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

 

The South Korean won and the Thai baht fell 0.4% against the dollar, the most among their peers. South Korea's central bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2.50% on Thursday, according to economists in a Reuters poll. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah, the Taiwan dollar, and the Philippine peso fell 0.1% against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan was steady against the US unit. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 13

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.30	90.00
Private-sector bank	90.40	89.90
Foreign bank	90.45	90.00
Brokerage firm	90.40	90.00
Brokerage firm	90.45	90.05

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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