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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

By Shruti Nair

MUMBAI – Union Bank of India's net profit for the December quarter is likely to fall on year primarily due to lower net interest margin and a decline in operating profit, according to brokerages. The bank's net interest income is expected to fall slightly due to only a modest rise in advances and a fall in yield on advances.

Union Bank is expected to post a net profit of INR 41.11 billion for the December quarter, down almost 11% over the year-ago quarter and down 3% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from five brokerages. The bank is scheduled to announced its quarterly earnings on Wednesday.

The highest estimate for the bank's net profit is INR 45.37 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest is INR 38.05 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

The bank's net interest income for the December quarter is estimated at INR 90.24 billion, over 2% higher over the trailing quarter but more than 2% lower than the year-ago quarter. Emkay Services has the highest estimate for the bank's net interest income at INR 91.71 billion, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest estimate for the metric at INR 88.08 billion.

The net profit is expected to fall on year due to lower NIM. Three brokerages expect the bank's NIM to fall 17-20 basis points from 2.91% in the same quarter a year ago.

Brokerages are divided on their reasoning for the expected decline in net profit compared to the trailing quarter. They expect a slight rise in NIM by 5-7 bps from 2.67% in the September quarter. The repricing of term deposits is expected to have offset the impact of the fall in yield on advances, Kotak Securities said. Despite higher NIMs, the net profit may still show a sequential fall due to higher provisions owing to a spike in slippages in agricultural loans in the December quarter.

The average estimate for the bank's provisions this quarter is INR 15.23 billion based on data compiled from four brokerages. This translates to a rise of more than 9% from the September quarter and a near 5% fall from the provisions made a year ago.

The bank said its global advances were INR 10.17 trillion, up 7.1% on year and up 4.3% sequentially. Its global deposits were up 3% on year but down 1% on quarter at INR 12.23 trillion.

The bank's shares are up over 15% since it reported the September quarter earnings. At 1217 IST, shares of the company traded at INR 165.12 on the National Stock Exchange, up less than 1% from Monday.

Of the seven brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 160 per share. One brokerage has a 'hold' recommendation with a target price of INR 155 and one has a 'reduce' rating with a target price of INR 140 per share.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Union Bank of India from five brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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