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Informist, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect market direction to be uncertain in the absence of any concrete news. Investors will watch out for the next call on the India-US trade deal, which is likely to take place on Tuesday, according to media reports. The market rebounded from its initial losses on Monday and closed higher on improved investor sentiment following favourable comments on the trade deal with the US.

 

"India and the US will discuss trade issues in their next call scheduled for Tuesday," newly-appointed US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said on Monday, Reuters reported. India will also be invited to join Pax Silica, a US-led initiative to build a silicon supply chain from critical minerals to semiconductors and artificial intelligence, next month, Gor said.

 

"The market is waiting for that one big trigger of the US trade deal," Alok Churiwala, managing director at Churiwala Securities Pvt. Ltd., said. "And when the trade deal happens, it will give a leg up to the market," he said.

 

The domestic market has been under selling pressure after US President Donald Trump approved a bipartisan bill that grants the president sweeping authority to penalise Russia's trading partners, including India, for purchasing oil.

 

Churiwala expects crude oil prices to remain stable. According to him, the supply of Venezuelan crude oil to the market will not increase quickly. "Oil prices dipped on Monday, after Iran said it had "total control" following weekend violence, easing some concerns over supply from the OPEC producer, while investors also weighed efforts to resume oil exports from Venezuela," Reuters reported. At 1708 IST, the March contract of Brent crude oil ended 0.8% lower at $62.83 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange.

 

On the earnings front, Harshit Kapadia, vice president at Elara Securities, expects capital goods companies to report double-digit revenue growth in the December quarter from mid-single-digit growth. However, he sees these companies' margins on the weaker side, attributing this to depreciation of the Indian rupee and commodity inflation. However, the margins of defence stocks will not be affected in the December quarter and will grow at double digits, he said. 

 

On Monday, the Nifty 50 index ended at 25790.25 points, up 106.95 points or 0.4%. The BSE Sensex closed at 83878.17 points, up 301.93 points or 0.4%. Analysts pegged resistance for the Nifty 50 at 26000–26100 points and support at 25650 points. Analysts expect returns on the Nifty 50 to be 13–15% in 2026.

 

The selling pressure by foreign investors is expected to ease in the coming days. Analysts expect foreign investors to turn buyers only when the trade deal is announced, and until then, the current trajectory is likely to continue.

 

Meanwhile, Tata Consultancy Services Monday reported a fall in its bottom line for the December quarter due to one-time costs of INR 33.91 billion from the trailing quarter. However, excluding one-time costs, the company's consolidated net profit would have been up 6% from a quarter ago. The IT giant reported a consolidated net profit of INR 106.6 billion, down nearly 12% sequentially and lower than the INR 130 billion that broking firms had expected. However, excluding one-time costs, TCS's net profit would be INR 140.51 billion, compared with INR 121.31 billion in the September quarter. Its revenue rose nearly 4% from the previous quarter to INR 670.87 billion, exceeding the INR 668.01 billion brokerages had expected. 

 

HCL Technologies reported a consolidated net profit of INR 40.76 billion for the December quarter, down 3.8% on quarter. This was below Street's expectation of INR 47.49 billion for the quarter. The company reported consolidated revenues of INR 338.72 billion, up 6.0% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, exceeding Street expectations of INR 331.86 billion.

 

India's headline CPI inflation rose to a three-month high of 1.33% in December from 0.71% in November because of an unfavourable base effect and a rise in core inflation, data released by the statistics ministry on Monday showed. "We expect 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) CPI inflation to undershoot RBI's estimate by 10 to 15 bps (basis points) and thus expect a 25 bps rate cut in February 2026." Garima Kapoor, deputy head of research and economist at Elara Capital, said in a note.

 

Market participants will watch for Infosys' December-quarter earnings, which will be released on Wednesday. Other IT majors, such as Wipro and Tech Mahindra, will release their December-quarter earnings on Friday. The commerce ministry will release the Wholesale Price Index for December on Wednesday.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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