Earnings Outlook
GST cut to drive UltraTech Q3 sales; PAT seen rising 9%
This story was originally published at 17:47 IST on 12 January 2026
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By Astha Oriel
MUMBAI – UltraTech Cement is expected to report a sharp year-on-year increase in its top line and bottom line for the December quarter, according to analysts. The company's earnings will largely mirror the overall trend in the sector during the quarter. This sharp increase in revenue and profit is likely driven by an increase in demand for construction activities and high volumes driven by lower cement prices after the cut in the goods and services tax on cement, say analysts.
The country's largest cement company is likely to report an over 9% on-year increase in its December quarter net profit to INR 14.86 billion, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerage firms. The highest profit estimate is INR 16.40 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 12.5 billion by Nomura Equity Research. This will be 20% higher from the September quarter of FY26. The company will report its December quarter results on Jan. 24. This will be the fourth consecutive quarter, when the company is likely to report a 9% year-on-year increase in the net profit.
The net sales of the Mumbai-based cement company are likely to rise 16% on year to INR 206.75 billion in the December quarter due to higher volumes, according to the average of analysts' estimates. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 217.15 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 194.19 billion from Nomura Equity Research.
The revenue for ready-mix-concrete cement is expected to grow 28% year-on-year, whereas white cement revenue is likely to increase by 7% year-on-year, Motilal Oswal said in its earnings preview report.
In the year-ago quarter, the company's revenue for grey cement, white cement, and ready mix concrete cement was INR 13.97 billion, INR 6.41 billion, and INR 14.69 billion, respectively. Grey cement accounts for more than 90% share of revenue in UltraTech's portfolio.
The cement output for October and November, increased 5.2% and 14.5%, respectively, as per data released by the commerce ministry. The cut in the GST on cement to 18% from 28% led to an increase in demand, according to analysts. The highest estimate of the company's overall volume is 38.5 million tonnes from JM Financial Services Ltd and the lowest estimate is 30.4 million tonnes from Nirmal Bang.
The cement major had reported consolidated sales volume of 30.37 million tonnes in the same quarter a year ago. By the end of December, the company's global capacity was 194 million tonnes per annum.
On a sequential basis, the company's net sales are likely to rise over 5% from the preceding quarter, as per brokerage estimates. This is due to an increase in volume following the GST rate cut on cement prices in the latest quarter. In Jul-Sept, the company's net sales were INR 196.07 billion.
The overall cement industry is likely to witness a fall in realisation by 1-2% in the reporting quarter, according to estimates by brokerages. Two brokerages have estimated the fall in realisation for grey cement by 2-3% in the December quarter for UltraTech. The company reported grey cement realisations at INR 5,088 per tonne in the September quarter.
The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are likely to increase by 8% year-on-year to INR 33.79 billion, according to the consensus estimate. The highest estimate is INR 37 billion from Motilal Oswal, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 26.27 billion from Nomura.
Analysts expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to fall to INR 795–INR 1,009 per tonne in the reporting quarter due to a fall in realisation. In the December quarter last year, the company's EBITDA per tonne was INR 1,208 per tonne.
For the December quarter, the cement prices are likely to soften by 1-2%, according to analysts. The price correction is likely to impact the East and the South regions sharply, followed by the west, the north and the central regions, say analysts. The central region was most impacted due to a fall in price realisations in the September quarter, said Atul Daga, executive director, UltraTech Cement, in an analyst call.
Shares of UltraTech have given a 3% return since the company announced its September quarter results on Oct. 18. Shares of the company closed at INR 12,098 apiece on the National Stock Exchange Monday.
Out of the 22 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 19 have a ‘buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 14,091 per share. This is 17% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a ‘hold' recommendation with an average target price of INR 13,141 per share and one has a 'sell' rating with an average target price of INR 13,192 per share.
Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for UltraTech Cement from 12 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:
Brokerages (INR million) | Net Sales | Net Profit | EBITDA |
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd | 211,100.00 | 16,400.00 | 37,000.00 |
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd | 216,598.00 | 15,943.00 | 36,231.00 |
ICICI Securities Ltd | 210,072.00 | 15,864.00 | 35,587.00 |
Axis Securities Ltd | 196,377.00 | 15,380.00 | 33,190.00 |
YES Securities (India) Ltd | 217,153.00 | 15,330.00 | 34,990.00 |
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd | 203,185.00 | 14,972.00 | 35,094.00 |
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd | 213,762.00 | 14,804.00 | 34,553.00 |
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd | 205,997.00 | 14,538.00 | 33,842.00 |
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd | 196,700.00 | 14,500.00 | 33,700.00 |
Kotak Securities Ltd | 210,787.00 | 14,444.00 | 33,612.00 |
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd | 205,085.00 | 13,679.00 | 31,429.00 |
Nomura Equity Research | 194,185.00 | 12,500.00 | 26,268.00 |
Average | 206,750.08 | 14,862.83 | 33,791.33 |
End
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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