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Informist, Monday, Jan. 12, 2026

 

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--India Dec CPI inflation 1.33% 
--India Dec CPI inflation 1.33% vs 0.71% Nov 
--Informist poll estimated India Dec CPI inflation at 1.7% 
--India Dec CPI food inflation -2.71% vs -3.91% Nov 
--India Dec CPI rural inflation 0.76% vs 0.10% Nov 
--India Dec CPI urban inflation 2.03% vs 1.40% Nov 
--India Dec CPI general index up 0.1% on month 
--India Dec CPI food price index down 0.3% on month 
--India Dec CPI cereals and products index down 0.1% on month 
--India Dec CPI vegetable index down 2.9% on month 
--India Dec CPI pulses and products index down 0.1% on month 
--India Dec CPI oils and fats index up 0.1% on month 
--India Dec CPI food, beverage index down 0.2% on month 
--India Dec CPI housing index down 0.8% on month 
--India Dec CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.2% on month 
--India Dec CPI fuel and light index up 0.3% on month 
--India Dec CPI miscellaneous index up 0.7% on month 
--India Oct-Dec average CPI inflation 0.8% vs 0.6% RBI forecast 
--India Dec CPI core inflation 4.6% vs 4.4% Nov 
--India Dec CPI core inflation of 4.6% highest in 28 months

 

NEW DELHI – India's headline CPI inflation rose to a three-month high of 1.33% in December from 0.71% in November because of an unfavourable base effect and a rise in core inflation, data released by the statistics ministry Monday showed. This is the last CPI print under the current series, which has 2012 as the base year. The statistics ministry will release a new CPI series with 2024 as the base year on Feb. 12.

At 1.33%, CPI inflation in December was lower than the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, headline inflation was seen at 1.7% in December. CPI inflation was 5.22% in December 2024.

 

This is first time in three months that retail inflation was higher than 1%. Inflation, however, remained below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4% for the 11th month in a row. CPI inflation was also below the lower end of the RBI's target range of 2-6% for the fourth consecutive month in December.

 

Core inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--rose to a 28-month high of 4.6% in December from 4.4% in November. The rise was led by gold inflation, which increased to a record high of 68.66% in December. Silver inflation, too, rose to a record high of 97.07% in December, which pushed core inflation higher. 

 

While core inflation rose last month, food inflation stayed in deflation. Food inflation was (-)2.71% in December against (-)3.91% in November. 

 

The general index rose just 0.1% month-on-month in December with food price index down 0.3% from November. Within food, vegetable prices fell 2.9% on month in December. 

 

CPI inflation averaged 0.8% in the December quarter, 20 basis points higher than the RBI's forecast of 0.6% for the quarter. Inflation has declined so far in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) because of favourable base effects and lower food prices, which allowed the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to lower interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025.

 

With favourable base effects turning adverse, CPI inflation is seen rising ahead. The RBI projects inflation to rise to 2.9% in the March quarter and further up to 3.9-4.0% in the first half of FY27. The central bank expects CPI inflation to average 2.0% in FY26.

 

"The headline CPI inflation came in softer than expectations on deeper deflation in food. Meanwhile, the core inflation remained largely led by higher gold and silver prices," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said. "The inflationary trend remains fairly benign creating room for the last rate cut in the upcoming policy. However, we reckon that it will be a very close call especially as the inflation and GDP data will be completely revamped by end-February."

 

Rural inflation rose to 0.76% in December from 0.10% in November. Urban inflation, too, increased last month to 2.03% from 1.40% in November. 

 

The following table details sequential and annual changes in the main components of the CPI (Combined):

 

	Weight	Index for December	Month-on-month change (in %)	Year-on-year change (in %)
				December	November
Cereals and products	9.67	197.4	(-)0.1%	(-)0.35%	0.10%
Meat and fish	3.61	233.9	1.8%	5.12%	2.54%
Egg	0.43	222.2	6.2%	4.76%	3.87%
Milk and products	6.61	192.3	0.2%	2.56%	2.45%
Oils and fats	3.56	196.1	0.1%	6.75%	7.87%
Vegetables	6.04	210.6	(-)2.9%	(-)18.47%	(-)22.24%
Pulses and products	2.38	181.8	(-)0.1%	(-)15.09%	(-)15.82%
Sugar and confectionery	1.36	137.0	(-)0.1%	4.66%	4.02%
Spices	2.5	222.5	0.5%	(-)2.15%	(-)2.89%
Food and beverages	45.86	202.1	(-)0.2%	(-)1.85%	(-)2.78%
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.38	215.8	0.2%	2.96%	2.96%
Clothing and footwear	6.53	197.6	0.2%	1.44%	1.49%
Housing	10.07	186.9	(-)0.8%	2.86%	2.95%
Fuel and light	6.84	181.3	0.3%	1.97%	2.32%
Miscellaneous	28.32	198.0	0.7%	6.17%	5.64%
General Index	100	198.0	0.1%	1.33%	0.71%
Consumer Food Price Index	39.06	201.1	(-)0.2%	(-)2.71%	(-)3.91%

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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