More Stories

Informist, Saturday, Jan. 10, 2026

 

By Anshul Choudhary

 

MUMBAI – The cut in the goods and service tax may not have had the intended positive impact on consumption in the December quarter, earnings estimates by brokerages showed. While most automobile makers had a strong earnings growth due to better demand, the lower GST wasn't enough for the Nifty 50 index companies to show any sharp improvement in earnings from the previous quarters. Further, a poor quarter from Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles offset the positive effect of GST cuts on the overall earnings growth, analysts said.

 

The 47 index constituents for which earnings estimates are available are likely to report a cumulative net profit growth of 2.8% for the December quarter, compared with the year-ago quarter, according to an Informist poll of 20 brokerages. This is slightly better than the near 1% year-on-year growth in net profit these 47 companies reported for the September quarter, still slower than the 4% growth reported in the December quarter of last year.

 

The sales growth of these companies is expected to have improved slightly to 7.7% on year in the December quarter from the 7.4% growth in the year-ago quarter but will still be slower than the nearly 9% growth reported in the September quarter. If this estimate comes true, the latest quarter will be the 11th straight quarter of single-digit rise in net sales for these companies. These 47 companies had last reported double-digit growth in sales in the March quarter of 2023--nearly three years back.

 

For reference, the Nifty 50 index is now at 25683.30, up 48% from March 2023. In contrast, the cumulative sales growth of these 47 companies across three years, including the estimated growth for the latest quarter, is only 16% and the cumulative adjusted net profit growth of these companies is only 11%. Excluding Tata Motors PV, which is reeling from the impact of the cyberattack on its JLR unit, the three-year sales growth of these companies is 20% and net profit growth is just over 16%.

 

The cumulative earnings growth during the reporting quarter will be dragged down by yet another quarter of losses from Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles. The demerger of the passenger and commercial vehicle businesses of Tata Motors came into effect last year and both the businesses began reporting their earnings separately from the September quarter.

 

Excluding Tata Motors PV, the cumulative net profit of the remaining 46 companies in the index is likely to rise 6.6% on year during the quarter, which is better than the 4% and 5% rise in net profit for these companies in the September quarter and the year-ago quarter, respectively.

 

Excluding Tata Motors PV, the net sales growth for these 46 companies is expected to jump to nearly 10% compared with the 7.7% rise in sales including that of Tata Motors PV. The near 10% growth is similar to the year-on-year rise in sales for the 46 companies in the September quarter--showing the limited incremental effect of GST cuts on earnings. Further, the 10% growth estimated for the December quarter sales is only slightly better than the near 7% rise reported in the June quarter and the 8% rise in the March quarter. It remains to be seen whether this small uptick in sales sustains beyond the current financial year.

 

To enable a like-to-like comparison, the net profit and revenue of Tata Motors PV for the year-ago quarter have been calculated from the figures provided by the undivided Tata Motors. The net profit for the PV business was calculated by reducing its pro rata tax contribution from the PV segment profit before tax. The tax was reduced in proportion to the share of the PV business in the total profit before tax. This calculation was required as under the current disclosure norms, companies are not required to report segment profit after tax.

 

There were no estimates available for three of the Nifty 50 constituents--Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finserv, and Jio Financial Services. In this analysis, to enable a like-to-like comparison, brokerages' earnings estimates for the December quarter have been compared with companies' net profit excluding exceptional items for the previous quarters.

 

One unusual occurrence this quarter is that there is a clear divide among a few large brokerages' earnings estimates for the Nifty 50 companies. Nuvama Wealth Management and Kotak Institutional Equities are conservative in their estimates and expect the index companies' cumulative net profit to rise only 1-2% on year. On other hand, Motilal Oswal Financial Services and JM Financial Institutional Securities estimate an 8-10% rise in net profit of the index companies.

 

LIMITED EFFECT OF GST CUTS

Automobile companies benefitted from a sharp improvement in demand after the GST cut and additional discounts by companies made vehicles cheaper. With lower prices attracting new customers, automobile companies are expected to show highest earnings growth among major sectors. The five index automobile companies reported a year-on-year growth of 10-23% in sales volume during the December quarter, compared with industry-wide sales growth of only 1% in the first half of the financial year.

 

While most companies reported better earnings, the cumulative earnings growth of automobile companies dropped during the quarter due to Tata Motors PV--the largest Indian automobile company in terms of revenue. The consolidated revenue of Tata Motors PV is likely to fall 22% on year during the quarter largely due to production halt at Jaguar Land Rover plant, which has been struggling since a cyberattack in September. The wholesales volume of JLR fell over 43% on year during the December quarter as production was hit for at least half of the quarter. The production of JLRs returned to "normal levels" only in mid-November, the company said Monday.

 

The five automobile companies in the Nifty 50 index, including Tata Motors PV, will likely report only a 2% rise in cumulative revenue for the December quarter. Excluding Tata Motors, the cumulative revenue of the four automobile companies in the Nifty 50 index is expected to rise 28% on year--far better than the nearly 18% rise in the trailing quarter.

 

Tata Motors PV is expected to report a net loss of over INR 25 billion, compared with a net profit last year. The swing to the loss in the December quarter is so large that including Tata Motors PV, the five index auto companies are likely to see their cumulative net profit for the quarter decline 26% on year. Excluding Tata Motors PV, the cumulative net profit of these four companies is likely to jump 32% on year as against over 16% rise in the trailing quarter--showing a sharp improvement in earnings growth after the GST cuts were announced.

 

While most automobile companies saw better demand during the quarter, the fast-moving consumer goods companies saw limited improvement in demand for their products after the GST cuts. Further, FMCG companies continued to face problems due to trade disruption created by GST cuts. On one hand, retailers focussed on clearing inventories and deferred new orders while, on other hand, consumers also deferred purchases on expectations of lower prices.

 

The growth in net sales of FMCG companies is likely to improve over the trailing quarter, but this growth is likely to be only a single digit growth. The cumulative net sales of the four FMCG index companies are expected to rise 8% on year as against the near 2% rise reported in the September quarter. These companies' cumulative net profit is expected to rise 6% during the December quarter, better than the 1% rise in net profit during the trailing quarter.

 

PHARMA, IT, BANKS, UNDERPERFORMERS

Pharmaceutical companies are expected to report a decline in profit during the quarter due to lower sales of the Revlimid drug and pricing pressures in the US. Three pharma companies in the index--Cipla, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries--are expected to report a 13% year-on-year fall in their cumulative net profit during the quarter. These companies' net sales are expected to rise only 5% on year.

 

Banks are expected to see another quarter of weak earnings, largely due to lower net interest margins. Including the latest 25 bps cut in December, the Reserve Bank of India has cut the benchmark repo rate by 125 bps in 2025.

 

The quarterly updates from some banks showed there was only slight improvement in loan growth with advances of HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and Kotak Mahindra Bank rising 12-16% as of Dec. 31, compared with the 10-16% rise at the end of the September quarter. However, due to the latest cut of 25 bps in repo rate, banks' net interest margins may continue to fall in the December quarter. The five banks in the Nifty 50 index are expected to report only a 4% rise in their cumulative net profit. These banks' net interest income is also expected to rise only 4%.

 

Information technology companies are likely to report poor earnings as demand for services remains weak in the US and as the December quarter is also seasonally weak for the sector. The five IT companies in the index are expected to report only a 2% sequential rise each in their cumulative net profit and revenue. Compared with the year-ago quarter, their cumulative net profit is expected to rise 6% and sales by 7%.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec consensus earnings estimates for companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 index. These estimates are based on reports compiled by Informist Media from 20 brokerage houses.

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
AIRPORTS & AVIATION
Interglobe Aviation	229,777	16,465	3.92	(32.58)	23.83	N.A.	53,998	--	6
Total	229,777	16,465	3.92	(32.58)	23.83	N.A.
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
AUTO
Bajaj Auto	153,467	26,492	19.83	25.63	2.85	6.84	31,366	Jan. 30	9
Eicher Motors +	60,235	14,102	21.12	20.48	(2.40)	2.97	14,877	--	9
M&M	395,475	41,571	27.72	40.24	12.74	(8.04)	59,021	Feb. 11	8
Maruti Suzuki	510,170	46,913	32.54	33.09	21.18	42.46	60,855	--	8
Tata Motors PV +	732,847	(25,112)	(21.72)	N.A.	1.29	N.A.	19,629	--	5
Total	1,852,194	103,966	2.41	(26.45)	8.55	32.87
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
BANK
AXIS Bank *	140,590	59,504	3.33	(5.61)	2.29	16.91	N.A.	Jan. 26	12
HDFC Bank *	326,203	183,704	6.42	9.77	3.39	(1.45)	N.A.	Jan. 17	12
ICICI Bank *	219,928	123,725	7.96	4.92	2.15	0.11	N.A.	Jan. 17	11
Kotak Mahindra *	75,525	34,772	4.95	5.22	3.31	6.88	N.A.	--	11
SBI *	420,321	172,788	1.42	2.29	(2.21)	11.00	N.A.	--	12
Total	1,182,567	574,492	4.40	4.40	0.97	4.63
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CAPITAL GOODS
Bharat Electronics	66,596	14,514	15.70	10.28	15.54	12.85	18,650	Jan. 28	7
L&T +	746,531	42,902	15.44	27.73	9.81	9.27	75,232	--	7
Total	813,127	57,416	15.46	22.82	10.26	10.16
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CEMENT
UltraTech Cement +	206,750	14,863	16.29	9.33	5.45	20.68	33,791	Jan. 24	12
Total	206,750	14,863	16.29	9.33	5.45	20.68
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CHEMICAL
Asian Paints +	89,926	11,920	5.18	7.34	5.41	19.96	17,597	Jan. 27	9
Grasim Industries	99,101	(1,286)	22.04	N.A.	3.12	N.A.	4,057	--	4
Total	189,027	10,634	13.40	12.91	4.20	(40.86)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FINANCE
Bajaj Finance +*	118,025	52,379	1.31	23.35	(10.37)	7.44	N.A.	Feb. 3	8
Bajaj Finserv +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	Feb. 4	--
HDFC Life Insurance Co. #	199,503	4,378	18.96	5.51	6.25	(2.09)	N.A.	Jan. 15	1
Jio Financial Services *+	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	Jan. 15	--
SBI Life Insurance Co. #	291,070	5,237	17.24	(4.92)	17.14	5.89	N.A.	--	1
Shriram Finance*	66,515	25,006	19.00	30.71	10.38	8.38	N.A.	--	8
Total	675,113	87,000	14.74	22.10	7.47	7.09
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FMCG
Hindustan Unilever	161,786	25,548	5.00	2.52	3.81	1.95	37,431	--	11
ITC	185,283	51,519	8.65	5.28	2.81	1.18	62,544	--	11
Nestle India	52,778	7,348	10.42	5.55	(6.48)	(2.45)	11,923	Jan. 30	11
Tata Consumer Product +	50,168	4,099	12.90	43.79	1.03	1.33	7,040	--	9
Total	450,015	88,513	7.96	5.79	1.78	1.10
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
IT
HCL Tech +	331,857	47,492	11.03	3.45	3.89	12.14	71,983	Jan. 12	17
Infosys +	451,040	73,748	8.00	8.36	1.38	0.15	108,559	Jan. 14	17
TCS +	668,008	129,794	4.42	4.84	1.52	(1.75)	182,651	Jan. 12	17
Tech Mahindra +	141,683	13,805	6.64	40.41	1.24	15.57	22,685	Jan. 16	18
Wipro +	233,882	33,494	4.79	(0.13)	3.04	3.18	46,045	Jan. 16	17
Total	1,826,471	298,332	6.67	6.12	2.08	1.99
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
JEWELLERY
Titan Co.	218,283	15,151	35.60	53.04	32.02	50.61	23,327	--	6
Total	218,283	15,151	35.60	53.04	32.02	50.61
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
METAL & MINING
Hindalco Industries +	650,690	41,997	11.44	11.22	(1.50)	(14.69)	82,504	Feb. 12	8
JSW Steel +	450,331	13,935	8.83	69.94	(0.26)	(14.14)	64,904	Jan. 23	10
Tata Steel +	576,137	24,104	7.39	432.30	(1.83)	(31.56)	79,876	--	10
Total	1,677,157	80,036	9.32	58.52	(1.29)	(20.51)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
OIL & GAS
ONGC	314,869	71,462	(6.61)	(13.27)	(4.67)	(27.43)	164,587	--	10
Reliance Ind +	2,521,358	196,632	5.06	6.06	(0.98)	8.25	480,667	Jan. 16	11
Total	2,836,227	268,095	3.62	0.11	(1.40)	(4.30)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PHARMA, HEALTHCARE
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise +	63,230	4,748	14.40	27.52	0.31	(0.51)	9,402	--	7
Cipla +	74,953	12,324	5.97	(21.53)	(1.24)	(8.79)	17,275	Jan. 23	6
Dr. Reddy's Lab +	83,474	11,378	(0.40)	(19.52)	(5.45)	(15.54)	18,237	Jan. 21	8
Max Healthcare Institute +	24,991	3,918	33.76	25.39	17.03	(20.26)	6,561	--	6
Sun Pharma +	147,511	30,223	7.87	(6.13)	1.88	(3.07)	41,885	--	8
Total	394,157	62,590	7.91	(9.14)	0.21	(7.75)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
POWER
Adani Enterprises +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
Coal India +	316,544	66,834	(14.12)	(21.42)	4.86	53.49	89,368	--	5
NTPC	425,965	48,754	2.97	3.48	8.76	4.77	119,823	--	4
Power Grid	112,082	39,443	10.74	1.29	12.09	10.96	93,637	--	4
Total	854,590	155,030	(3.27)	(9.40)	7.69	23.41
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PORTS
Adani Ports and SEZ +	93,143	32,306	16.96	26.79	1.60	3.91	55,932	--	6
Total	93,143	32,306	16.96	26.79	1.60	3.91
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
RETAIL
Trent	53,889	5,447	18.84	16.06	14.07	20.84	10,386	--	3
Total	53,889	5,447	18.84	16.06	14.07	20.84
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
SERVICES
Eternal +	163,698	764	202.86	29.41	20.45	17.46	2,825	--	6
Total	163,698	764	202.86	29.41	20.45	17.46
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
TELECOM
Bharti Airtel +	539,485	74,854	19.54	3.45	3.46	10.21	307,668	--	5
Total	539,485	74,854	19.54	3.45	3.46	10.21
Nifty Total	14,255,667	1,945,954	7.67	2.79	3.59	6.14

 

Notes:

+ Consolidated Figure

* Net interest Income

Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year

# Net premium income

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

N.A.: Not Available

 

Estimates from:

Axis Securities Ltd, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd, DRChoksey FinServ Pvt Ltd, Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd, Indsec Securities and Finance Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Securities Ltd, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd, Sharekhan Ltd, Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagatap

Edited By Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.