India Rupee Review
Falls sharply as importers, FPIs buy dlrs; RBI caps fall
This story was originally published at 17:01 IST on 9 January 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar for the second consecutive trading day as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors amid looming uncertainty over the trade deal with the US, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely dollar sales ensured losses for the Indian unit were limited, they said.
"There were endless bids (dollar buys) in the market. None of the factors is in favour of the rupee right now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It was only RBI that was selling (dollars) around 90.25 (a dollar)."
The rupee ended at 90.1625 a dollar, 0.2% lower than its previous close of 90.0175. The Indian unit traded in a wide range of 38 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies also fell against the dollar amid a rise in the dollar index, with declines of 0.1-0.4%. The South Korean won was the worst performer amongst its peers.
The rupee started the day sharply higher against the dollar at 89.87 a dollar, but gave up its gains shortly after banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. Importers bought the greenback to take advantage of relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, as they expect the rupee to depreciate going forward, dealers said.
Importers have stepped up their dollar purchases owing to the lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, they said. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that the trade deal between New Delhi and Washington had not happened because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not call US President Donald Trump in time. If not for this, the trade deal with India would have been signed before those with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, according to Lutnick. Indian goods currently attract 50% tariff in the US.
The possibility of a trade deal coming through soon has also decreased after Trump, on Thursday, approved the bipartisan Russia Sanctions Bill, which gives the president sweeping authority to penalise Russia's trading partners, including India, China and Brazil, for their purchase of Russian oil. The bipartisan legislation would require the US to impose a 500% tariff on all goods imported from any country that continues to purchase Russian oil, petroleum products or uranium.
"The recent news flow on US tariffs has definitely added another layer of uncertainty around the trade deal," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Anyways, the market was on buying (of dollars) mode, now it has only gone up."
Amid lingering uncertainty, banks also bought dollars on behalf of FPIs looking to withdraw funds from Indian markets, dealers said. On Friday, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 0.8% and 0.7% lower, respectively. The Indian unit hit a low of 90.2500 during the day.
However, state-owned banks stepped in to sell the greenback, likely on behalf of the central bank, around 90.25, which helped the Indian unit erase some of its losses, dealers said. "The RBI is trying to curb volatility in the market. They are not letting the market become predictable," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "Today, I feel they let the rupee move because there were genuine outflows in the market. They have to think about their reserves as well."
Further, the dollar index rose to a one-month high during European trade as market participants await a key US jobs report and an approaching US Supreme Court decision on US President Donald Trump's use of emergency tariff powers, later in the day. This also exerted downward pressure on the rupee, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.04, against 98.85 Thursday and 98.73 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.09 during the day, its highest level since Dec. 10.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.1625 | 89.8700 | 89.8700 | 90.2500 | 90.0175 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 239.57 | 246.47 | 247.68 | 238.73 | 246.55 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower due to a rise in US Treasury yields Thursday as investors awaited key US jobs data and monitored geopolitical developments, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.19% Thursday from 4.15% Wednesday.
US non-farm payrolls data is expected to show that employers added 60,000 workers in December, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5%, after an unexpected increase to a four-year high of 4.6% in November. Market participants await the economic data for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory in 2026.
However, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, which limited the fall in premiums, dealers said
Dealers said the lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the RBI to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity also supported forward premiums.
Market participants expect the RBI's $10 billion dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction Tuesday to draw strong participation from state-owned banks, private-sector banks, and corporations. Under the buy-sell swap auction, the RBI will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery three years later.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.66%, down from 2.74% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 239.57 paise, against Thursday's close of 246.55 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Monday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of the US non-farm payrolls report, dealers said. Market participants also await the US Supreme Court's decision on Trump's use of emergency tariff powers later Friday. The Supreme Court is set to determine whether Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without Congressional approval.
"A lot of things are coming from the US over the weekend, but I am not sure how much of an impact it will have on the rupee. Unless the Supreme Court goes on to overturn Trump's decisions, there should not be much of an impact on the rupee," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.
Market participants expect the central bank to continue supporting the rupee through dollar sales next week, particularly after its active spot-market intervention this week. Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing depreciation in the local unit, they said. Traders will also keep a close eye on further developments related to the India-US trade deal.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 89.80-90.30 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30.
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index hits 1-mo high ahead of US jobs data
| AT 1455 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3413 | 1.3443 | 1.3412 | 1.3439 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1643 | 1.1664 | 1.1640 | 1.1659 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5730 | 0.5753 | 0.5728 | 0.5749 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6682 | 0.6704 | 0.6676 | 0.6697 |
| USD/JPY | 157.6540 | 157.6750 | 156.7600 | 156.8640 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3872 | 1.3879 | 1.3863 | 1.3864 |
| EUR/JPY | 183.5760 | 183.6600 | 182.7286 | 182.8900 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2501 | 1.2522 | 1.2493 | 1.2515 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9313 | 0.9322 | 0.9311 | 0.9312 |
NEW DELHI – The dollar index rose to a one-month high on Friday as market participants await a key US jobs report and an approaching US Supreme Court decision on US President Donald Trump's use of emergency tariff powers, later in the day. The Supreme Court is set to determine whether Trump can invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs without congressional approval.
Meanwhile, the US non-farm payrolls data is expected to show that employers added 60,000 workers in December, according to the median of estimates by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5%, after an unexpected increase to a four-year high of 4.6% in November. Market participants await the economic data for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory in 2026.
Fed funds futures are pricing an implied probability of 86% that the US central bank will hold interest rates at its next two-day meet on Jan. 27-28, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed. At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.01, against 98.85 Thursday and 98.73 Wednesday. The index rose to 99.06 during the day, its highest level since Dec. 10.
The yen fell 0.5% against the greenback even after data released early Friday showed Japanese annual household spending unexpectedly grew in November, recovering from a sharp fall in October. Consumer spending rose 2.9% on year, defying the median market forecast for a 0.9?cline.
The euro fell 0.1?ter data Friday showed German exports unexpectedly fell in November. Exports from Europe's largest economy fell 2.5% on month in November. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected no change. However, German industrial production unexpectedly rose in November, growing by 0.8% from October.
The Australian dollar fell 0.2% while the pound sterling was down 0.1% against the dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Fwd premium falls as US yields rise ahead of key US jobs data
| AT 1405 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.2225 | 89.8700 | 89.8700 | 90.2425 | 90.0175 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 242.65 | 246.47 | 247.68 | 242.65 | 246.55 |
NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell due to a rise in US Treasury yields Thursday as investors awaited key US jobs data and monitored geopolitical developments, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.19% Thursday from 4.15% Wednesday.
The US non-farm payrolls data is expected to show that employers added 60,000 workers in December, according to the median of estimates by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5%, after an unexpected increase to a four-year high of 4.6% in November. Market participants await the economic data for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory in 2026.
However, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, which limited the fall in premiums, dealers said. "There was some receiving in forwards tracking US, but the overall sentiment remains of paying," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Dealers said lack of dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps by the Reserve Bank of India to neutralise the impact of its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, also supported forward premiums. The central bank likely sold dollars in the spot market Friday to support the rupee, as per dealers.
Market participants expect the RBI's $10 billion dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction Tuesday to draw strong participation from state-owned banks, private-sector banks, and corporations. Under the buy-sell swap auction, the RBI will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery after three years.
At 1405 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.69%, lower than 2.74% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 242.65 paise, against Thursday's close of 246.55 paise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Sharply down as importers, FPIs buy dollars; RBI limits fall
| AT 1350 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.1900 | 89.8700 | 89.8700 | 90.2425 | 90.0175 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, dollar sales by state-owned banks, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, limited losses for the Indian unit, they said.
"There is a lot of buying (of dollars) in the market. No scarcity of demand at all," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We are seeing selling (of dollars) at some levels but it is not much."
Oil marketing companies and other importers continuously bought dollars, fearing further depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. Importers have stepped up their dollar purchases owing to the lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, they said.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Friday that the trade deal between New Delhi and Washington had not happened because Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not call US President Donald Trump in time. If not for this, the trade deal with India would have been signed before those with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, according to Lutnick. Indian goods currently attract 50% tariff in the US.
Banks also bought dollars on behalf of FPIs looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, dealers said. At 1350 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.8?ch.
Meanwhile, the RBI likely sold the greenback around 90.24 a dollar, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. The RBI's intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 9
MUMBAI – At 1239 IST, the rupee was at 90.1150 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.8700 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.0175 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 90.50 | 90.30 | 89.80 | 89.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.20 | 90.15 | 89.65 | 89.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.30 | 90.20 | 89.80 | 89.60 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee:Steady; bks' dlr sales for inflows offset by firm dlr, oil price
| AT 0952 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.0350 | 89.8700 | 89.8700 | 90.0400 | 90.0175 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 245.47 | 246.47 | 246.47 | 244.47 | 246.55 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar as a firm dollar index and a rise in crude oil prices offset the impact of banks' dollar sales for inflows into local equities, dealers said.
"There are inflows for IPO of BCCL (Bharat Coking Coal Ltd.) but the sentiment is sour because of geopolitics affecting dollar and crude," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.
The company's public issue is solely an offer for sale of 465.70 million shares. The offer opens for subscription Friday and closes Tuesday. Bharat Coking Coal raised INR 2.73 billion by allotting 118.75 million equity shares at INR 23 each to anchor investors.
While the inflows supported the Indian unit, banks' dollar purchases for oil importers weighed on it, dealers said. Oil prices climbed over 3% on Thursday after two straight days of decline, settling at a two-week high as investors assessed developments in Venezuela and concerns about supplies from Russia, Iraq and Iran.
The dollar remained firm, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. The dollar gained ground on Friday, as traders anticipated the publication of the latest US employment report and prepared for an upcoming ruling by the US supreme court on President Donald Trump's exercise of emergency tariff powers.
Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India also sold dollars in early trade to support the Indian unit.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.70 and 90.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 89.7000 a dollar and support at 90.20 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr firm before non-farm payrolls data
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar as the greenback strengthened ahead of the release of US non-farm payrolls data later on Friday. At 0942 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.94, against 98.85 Thursday and 98.73 Wednesday.
The non-farm payrolls data is expected to show that employers added 60,000 workers in December, according to the median of estimates by economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.5%, after an unexpected increase to a four-year high of 4.6% in November.
The South Korean won was down 0.3% against the dollar. On Thursday, the country posted its largest-ever November current account surplus, reaching $12.24 billion, nearly double October's $6.81 billion, driven by strong exports and a semiconductor sector upturn.
The Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2% against the dollar. The currency faces downside pressure from a widening fiscal deficit, higher inflation, and the prospect of further rate cuts. Indonesia's fiscal deficit widened to 2.9% of GDP in 2025, exceeding the government's projection of 2.78% and the 2.3?ficit recorded in 2024.
The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar and the Malaysian ringgit was down 0.1%. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 9
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| Private-sector bank | 90.10 | 89.75 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.30 | 89.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.10 | 89.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.15 | 89.65 |
(Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Saji George Titus
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