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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – India's GDP growth in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) is likely to exceed the first advance estimate of 7.4% in the new series with 2022-23 as the base year, State Bank of India said in a research note. The National Statistics Office will release the new GDP series on Feb. 27.

 

According to the first advance estimate released Wednesday, GDP growth in FY26 is projected at 7.4%, marginally higher than the 7.3% projected by the Reserve Bank of India. 

 

"Historically, the difference between RBI's estimate and NSO's estimate is always in the range of 20-30 bps and hence the 7.4% estimate of FY26 is quite expected and reasonable. We, however, believe that GDP growth for FY26 would be around 7.5% with upward bias," the report, authored by the Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said. "The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data and revisions, are scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026. So, all these numbers are expected to change with the base revision to 2022-23."

 

The current GDP series has FY12 as the base year. On Feb. 27, along with the second advance estimates for FY26, the statistics ministry will detail GDP data for the third quarter of FY26, based on the new series.

 

The statistics ministry last updated the GDP series in early 2015, when it revised the base year to FY12 from FY5. The last revision of the GDP series, which also involved changes to the computation methodology, prompted questions from several quarters about the data's accuracy, as the economy's growth rate rose significantly under the new series.  

 

Commenting on the latest data, Ghosh said the first advance estimate indicates a flat aggregate demand in FY26. "Per capita consumption registered a growth 6.1%. Uptick in government consumption, traction in services has held up the demand in FY26, cushioning the impact of external headwinds," he said.

 

Nominal GDP, as per the first advance estimates, grew 8.0% in FY26 as against the Budget assumption of 10.1%. 

 

In a separate report, Paras Jasrai, associate director at India Ratings and Research, said that while real GDP is performing as per expectations, caution is emanating from the slowing nominal GDP growth, the slowest since the COVID-hit FY21. Nominal GDP, as per the first advance estimates, is likely to grow 8.0% in FY26 as against the Budget assumption of 10.1%. 

 

"Low GDP deflator growth at a five-decade low of 0.5% in FY26 (FY1976: -1.6%) provided succour to the real GDP growth," he said. "Nevertheless, the resilient growth of the Indian economy at a time of a volatile global economic situation is indeed noteworthy. This, coupled with the renewed reforms momentum, will help navigate the treacherous waters in FY27."

 

India Ratings projects India's GDP to grow 6.9% in FY27. It believes domestic reforms, including the income tax cut in the Budget, GST rationalisation, and three foreign trade agreements – Oman, the UK, and New Zealand - will help the economy withstand global uncertainties caused mainly by the US tariffs. The risks to FY27 growth are evenly balanced, the rating agency said.  End

 

Reported by Priyasmita Dutta

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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