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Informist, Monday, Jan. 5, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at a near three-week low against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely greenback sales ensured losses for the Indian unit were limited, they said. 

 

"There were a lot of bids (buying of dollars) in the market, but the rupee was kept in a narrow range," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There was constant support (for rupee) around 90.30 (a dollar)." 

 

The rupee ended at 90.2775 a dollar, almost 0.1% lower than 90.1975 on Friday. The Indian unit moved in a range of just 10 paise during the day. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the greenback, with the Phillipine peso being the worst hit. 

 

The rupee started the day broadly steady against the dollar, shrugging off any impact from the news of an attack by the US on Venezuela and the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. US President Donald Trump Saturday said that the US had launched a "large-scale strike" on Venezuela, including in the capital Caracas. Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were transported to New York after the military operation. 

 

Dealers said prima facie, there seems to be no impact of the geopolitical development on the rupee. However, they are watchful of further developments around the same, saying if there is any escalation, risk appetite among investors may take a sustained beating and thus, weigh on Asian currencies, including the rupee.

 

"Oil prices will also be closely watched. However, despite Venezuela's vast reserves, its current contribution to global oil supply is relatively small," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex, said in a note. "India, for instance, imports less than 1% of its crude from Venezuela. As a result, the immediate oil impact may be limited, unless tensions widen or disrupt broader supply chains."

 

However, the Indian unit came under downward pressure shortly after opening as bank rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil and other importers, fearing further depreciation in the local unit, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed by some state-owned banks' dollar buying ahead of daily reference rate fixing, dealers said.

 

"Ever since the 90.00 level has broken, there are more bids (dollar buying) in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The rupee fell below the 90-per-dollar mark on Friday, for the first time since Dec. 18.

 

However, the Indian unit could not fall past the key support of 90.30 a dollar a some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a low of 90.2900 a dollar during the day.

 

Meanwhile, a rise in the dollar index also weighed on the domestic currency, dealers said. The dollar index gained owing to safe haven demand after the US' "large-scale strike" on Venezuela and ahead of a slew of US economic data this week.

 

At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.64, up from 98.43 Friday and 98.28 Wednesday. A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the local currency, dealers said.

 

The Indian currency was also weighed by dampened risk sentiment after Trump Sunday said the US could raise tariffs on India if New Delhi does not help address Washington's concerns about Russian oil, dealers said. The US currently levies a 50% tariff on India, including 25% as penalty for buying crude oil from Russia. India and US have been working on a trade agreement since February and have missed the fall 2025 target period for concluding the first tranche of the deal.

 

The local currency was also weighed by a fall in domestic equities, according to dealers. On Monday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.4% and 0.3% lower, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2775	90.1950	90.1950	90.2900	90.1975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.79	231.29	238.96	231.29	227.68

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher on Monday as banks continuously bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium hit an over three-year high of 3.26% on Dec. 23 due to excess dollar liquidity in the system. Since then, the forward premium has cooled off over 60 basis points.  

 

Dealers said importers also bought forward dollars fearing further depreciation in the rupee. Market participants await release of key economic data in the US this week, including the US non-farm payroll data on Friday, for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.63%, up from 2.52% on Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.79 paise, against Friday's close of 227.68 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee may take cues from movement in the dollar index after the release of US ISM report on business manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, later in the day, dealers said. Market participants will also keep a close eye on further developments related to the US' attack on Venezuela. 

 

A data-heavy week in the US, including ADP employment, non-farm payrolls, unemployment and initial jobless claims, is expected to drive volatility in the dollar and, in turn, the rupee, said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, in a note. "The currency is likely to remain under pressure within a broad 89.75–90.65 range in the near term."

 

Further, traders will closely monitor developments relating to the India-US trade deal. They expect sustainable relief for the rupee only after the deal comes through.

 

Importers may continue to buy dollars, fearing further depreciation in the local unit, they said. However, they expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales, to prevent excessive fall in the rupee.

 

"There is no certainty to how far the rupee can fall. Going by the past few day's trend, the RBI seems to be allowing some depreciation and then supporting one level," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "But we never know at what level RBI would want to push the rupee higher by coming aggressively."

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00-90.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30.

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India Rupee - World FX: Safe-haven dlr up; US captures Venezuelan president

 

	AT 1440 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3425	1.3474	1.3414	1.3468
EUR/USD	1.1679	1.1724	1.1672	1.1728
NZD/USD	0.5749	0.5769	0.5743	0.5765
AUD/USD	0.6676	0.6693	0.6665	0.6693
USD/JPY	156.8250	157.2950	156.6900	156.7800
USD/CAD	1.3785	1.3785	1.3734	1.3735
EUR/JPY	183.1650	184.0580	183.1730	183.9062
CHF/USD	1.2568	1.2631	1.2568	1.2611
EUR/CHF	0.9292	0.9293	0.9271	0.9296

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose against major currencies on Monday due to safe-haven demand after US President Donald Trump Saturday said that the US had launched a "large-scale strike" on Venezuela, including in the capital Caracas. Republican Senator Mike Lee said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipated no further action against Venezuela.

 

Market sentiment was risk-averse as the US targeted Venezuela and apprehended President Nicolas Maduro on drug-trafficking allegations. Trump has additionally warned of carrying out raids in Colombia and Iran. 

 

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.70 at 1440 IST Monday, against 98.43 Friday and 98.28 Wednesday

 

The yen was largely unchanged against the dollar. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that the Japanese central bank anticipates raising interest rates further if the economy and prices align with its projections. 

 

The euro was down 0.3% against the dollar as hope of an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in February have diminished, especially due to the recent boost in economic activity throughout the euro area, coupled with anticipations that this progress will persist as downside risks diminish

 

In the second half of the day, the Institute for Supply Management will publish the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index data for December. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: In thin band; PSU banks' dlr sales for RBI offset dlr strength

 

	AT 1339 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2750	90.1950	90.1950	90.2875	90.1975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	238.40	231.29	238.52	231.29	227.68

 

MUMBAI – The rupee traded in a thin range against the dollar on Monday as a firm dollar was offset by dollar sales by state-owned banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The rupee moved in a range of 9 paise so far on Monday. 

 

"Oilers are buying because the prices have fallen and the risk is also there from the conflict," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They (RBI) have been there on the other end but the pressure from dollar is relentless."  

 

The dollar remained firm, prompting importers to purchase the greenback in fear of further depreciation in the Indian unit going forward, dealers said. The dollar rose sharply as risk sentiment was hit after US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that the US had launched a "large-scale strike" on Venezuela, including in the capital Caracas. Republican Senator Mike Lee said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipated no further action against Venezuela.

 

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.70 at 1343 IST Monday, against 98.43 Friday and 98.28 Wednesday.

 

As the rupee approached the 90.28 a dollar level, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit and limit its losses, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said oil marketing companies also stocked up on the greenback due to a fall in crude oil prices. Oil prices fell as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies kept oil output unchanged after a quick meeting on Sunday that did not discuss the political crises affecting several of the producer group's members.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: 1-yr fwd premium jumps as importers buy fwd dlrs at low levels

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2700	90.1950	90.1950	90.2875	90.1975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	238.40	231.29	238.52	231.29	227.68

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium jumped on Monday as banks continuously bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium had hit an over three-year high of 3.26% on Dec. 23 due to excess dollar liquidity in the system. Since then, the forward premium has cooled off over 60 basis points.  

 

"There is lots of paying in forwards, which is why levels have risen like anything," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "These are good levels to pay and the spot (dollar-rupee) has also moved higher."  

 

Dealers said importers also bought forward dollars fearing further depreciation in the rupee. The Indian currency fell to a low of 90.2875 a dollar on Monday, primarily due to dollar buys by importers, dealers said. The Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars in the spot market to prevent further depreciation in the rupee, they said. 

 

Market participants await release of key economic data in the US this week, including the US non-farm payroll data on Friday, for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.64%, sharply up from 2.52% on Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 238.40 paise, against Friday's close of 227.68 paise. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Jan 5

 

MUMBAI – At 1135 IST, the rupee was at 90.2750 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.1950 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.1975 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	90.50	90.25	89.50	89.30
Private-sector bank	90.50	90.40	89.50	89.35
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.30	89.50	89.30
Brokerage firm	90.50	90.20	89.60	89.50

 

(Kabir Sharma and Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn; dlr rises as US arrests Venezuelan president

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar as the greenback rose after risk sentiment was hit. This follows US President Donald Trump's comments on Saturday when he said that the US had launched a "large-scale strike" on Venezuela, including in the capital Caracas. US officials announced that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores were moved to New York after a military operation and faced charges of narco-terrorism conspiracy along with additional offences.

 

Republican Senator Mike Lee said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipated no further action against Venezuela.

 

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.79 at 1017 IST Monday, against 98.43 Friday and 98.28 Wednesday.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.2% against the dollar as investors considered policy unpredictability after a significant government overhaul and escalating geopolitical conflicts. Market apprehension increased following the government's official division of the Ministry of Economy and Finance into two distinct organisations, a change that took effect on Friday, concluding 18 years of consolidated oversight. 

 

The Philippines peso was down 0.2% against the dollar. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Monday signed the 2026 budget worth 6.793 trillion pesos ($115 billion) as his government aims to revive an economy dented by a corruption scandal. "To my countrymen, we feel your doubts and worries about the previous budget. We are one in the desire to ensure that every peso of your taxes will go to the right projects and real needs of the people," said Marcos. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady as strong dollar offsets fall in crude prices

 

	AT 0945 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.2450	90.1950	90.1950	90.2850	90.1975
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	231.29	231.29	233.02	231.29	227.68

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar as a rise in the dollar index offset the impact of a fall in crude oil prices, dealers said. "This is purely dollar strength, we are all waiting to see what happens next in US and Venezuela," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

The dollar rose sharply as risk sentiment was hit after US President Donald Trump Saturday said that the US had launched a "large-scale strike" on Venezuela, including in the capital Caracas. Republican Senator Mike Lee said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio anticipated no further action against Venezuela.

 

The dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.19 at 0942 IST Friday, against 98.28 Wednesday and 98.22 Tuesday. The index had hit a high of 98.50 on Wednesday.

 

Crude oil prices fell, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. Oil prices fell as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies kept oil output unchanged on Sunday after a quick meeting that did not discuss the political crises affecting several of the producer group's members.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Jan 5

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.30	89.80
Private-sector bank	90.20	89.50
Brokerage firm	90.30	89.70
Brokerage firm	90.25	89.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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