India Rupee Review
Ends lower on banks' dlr buys for oil cos, corporates
This story was originally published at 18:05 IST on 31 December 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee ended slightly lower against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies and corporates, dealers said. Year-end dollar demand from companies along with a strong dollar pushed the rupee down, they said.
"Nothing out of the usual today (Wednesday), importers on one end with year-end demand and some selling (of dollars) from exporters," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
After opening at 89.8400 a dollar and moving in a range of just 11 paise on Wednesday, the Indian unit closed at 89.8700 a dollar against Tuesday's close of 89.7900 a dollar.
The rupee was lower against the dollar in early trade Wednesday, as the greenback rose across the board after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that the final call to cut rates in December was more difficult than assumed earlier, dealers said. Volume in the foreign exchange market was lower than usual as many market participants were on leave due to year-end holidays, they said.
At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates only after a highly detailed discussion regarding the risks to the US economy, showed the minutes of the meeting. Several supporters of the rate cut admitted that "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," due to various risks confronting the US economy, as indicated by the minutes, published Tuesday.
"With respect to the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, some participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after a lowering of the range at this meeting," the minutes said.
At 1636 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.28, against 98.22 Tuesday and 98.02 Monday.
In the second half of the session, dealers said oil marketing companies bought dollars along with Indian corporates who needed the greenback for year-end closing. Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India also sold dollars to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit, which supported the rupee.
A rise in local indices also supported the rupee, they said. The Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended up 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Wednesday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters, dealers said. The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields closed higher by 2 basis points Tuesday, which also weighed on premiums, dealers said.
The expectations of the interest rate differential with the US remaining narrow for longer also weighed on the premiums after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting hinted at just one rate cut in 2026. The Fed will holds its next meeting on Jan. 27-28, with investors currently expecting the central bank to leave its benchmark rate unchanged.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.56%, against Tuesday's close of 2.66%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 229.72 paise, against Tuesday's close of 240.45 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Thursday, the rupee is expected to open steady against the dollar as market participants remained cautious about developments in the US-India trade deal. Following the rupee's sharp appreciation in the previous week, banks will also be cautious about the RBI's intervention through dollar sales.
Traders will monitor the flows to and from Indian equities, they said. Traders will also track movements in the dollar index.
The rupee is expected to move in the range of 89.50-90.20 against the dollar on Thursday. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.00. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index rises after FOMC minutes; yen falls
| AT 1750 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3458 | 1.3470 | 1.3426 | 1.3468 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1754 | 1.1756 | 1.1720 | 1.1748 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5772 | 0.5792 | 0.5760 | 0.5789 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6689 | 0.6702 | 0.6676 | 0.6694 |
| USD/JPY | 156.5980 | 156.6770 | 156.3290 | 156.4130 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3696 | 1.3712 | 1.3693 | 1.3694 |
| EUR/JPY | 184.0810 | 184.1050 | 183.4000 | 183.7500 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2625 | 1.2633 | 1.2588 | 1.2627 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9309 | 0.9319 | 0.9299 | 0.9300 |
NEW DELHI – The dollar index edged higher as investors assessed the path of US interest rates after the release Tuesday of minutes from the US Federal Reserve's December meeting. The central bank agreed to reduce rates only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the US economy, as per the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee on Dec. 9-10.
However, some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged", given the various risks facing the US economy. At 1750 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.26, against 98.22 Tuesday and 98.02 Monday.
Trade volume was thin in global currency markets ahead of the New Year holiday. The yen was down 0.1% against the dollar while the euro and the pound sterling were flat. The Australian dollar was also down 0.1%. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Premium dn on bks' fwd dlr sales for exporters, rise in US ylds
| AT 1442 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.8800 | 89.8400 | 89.8400 | 89.9500 | 89.7900 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 232.45 | 241.45 | 241.45 | 232.39 | 240.45 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Wednesday as banks sold forward dollars on behalf of exporters, dealers said. "It has come down a lot so people are okay receiving at these levels before it rises again," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.
The expectations of the interest rate differential with the US remaining narrow for longer also weighed on the premiums after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting hinted at just one rate cut in 2026. The Fed will holds its next meeting on Jan. 27-28, with investors currently expecting the central bank to leave its benchmark rate unchanged.
"With respect to the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, some participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for some time after a lowering of the range at this meeting," the minutes said.
The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yields closed 2 basis points higher on Tuesday, which also weighed on the premiums, dealers said.
At 1441 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.57%, against Tuesday's close of 2.66%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 232.45 paise, against Tuesday's close of 240.45 paise. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Falls on dlr demand from oil cos, corporates; strong dlr weighs
| AT 1345 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.8725 | 89.8400 | 89.8400 | 89.9500 | 89.7900 |
MUMBAI – The rupee remained lower against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies and for Indian corporates, dealers said. Volume in the foreign exchange market was lower than usual as many market participants were on leave due to year-end holidays, they said.
Dealers said oil marketing companies bought dollars along with Indian corporates who needed the greenback for year-end closing. "Year-end demand is there with some oilers also placing bids, but the other end is also holding well," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
The dollar index remained firm, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. The greeback rose across the board after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that the final call to cut rates in December was more difficult than assumed earlier.
At 1344 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.28, against 98.22 Tuesday and 98.02 Monday.
Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India also sold dollars to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit, which supported the rupee. A rise in local indices also supported the rupee, they said. At 1341 IST, the Nifty50 and the Sensex were up 0.8?ch.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.50 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 31
MUMBAI – At 1138 IST, the rupee was at 89.9350 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.8400 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.7900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.30 | 90.00 | 89.50 | 89.35 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.30 | 89.99 | 89.49 | 89.27 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.20 | 90.10 | 89.45 | 89.30 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Lower as dlr recovers after Fed minutes show split on rate cut
| AT 0947 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.8700 | 89.8400 | 89.8400 | 89.8950 | 89.7900 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was lower against the dollar in early trade on Wednesday as the greeback rose across the board after minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that the final call to cut rates in December was more difficult than assumed earlier, dealers said. Volume in the foreign exchange market was lower than usual as many market participants were on leave due to year-end holidays, they said.
"Volume is very low today, so even small deals will have a big effect," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "Not much to look forward to except how the dollar behaves," he said.
At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates only after a highly detailed discussion regarding the risks to the US economy, based on the minutes of the meeting. Several supporters of the rate cut admitted that "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged," due to various risks confronting the US economy, as indicated by the minutes, published on Tuesday.
At 0947 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.28, against 98.22 Tuesday and 98.02 Monday.
Dealers said some bank bought the greenback for oil marketing companies, which weighed on the rupee.
If the rupee approaches the 90-a-dollar level, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene by way of dollar sales to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit, they said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.50 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 31
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.00 | 89.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.10 | 89.60 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.00 | 89.60 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.00 | 89.70 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dollar recovers after FOMC minutes
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar after the greenback recovered as minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting showed that the final call to cut rates earlier this month was more difficult than assumed earlier.
At 0809 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.28, against 98.22 Tuesday and 98.02 Monday.
The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the greenback. On Tuesday, China launched rockets into waters near Taiwan, displayed new attack ships, and downplayed the likelihood of US and allied intervention to prevent any future move by Beijing to seize control of the island during its most comprehensive military exercises to date.
Titled 'Justice Mission 2025', the exercises commenced 11 days following a US declaration of an unprecedented $11.1-billion arms deal with Taiwan, provoking the Chinese defence ministry's anger and threats of "forceful measures" in retaliation.
The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.2% against the dollar, supported by Bank Indonesia's stance. The central bank maintained rates for the third consecutive meeting in mid-December after reducing them by 150 bps over the previous year, highlighting a careful strategy towards promoting growth.
The South Korean won, on track for its worst ever annual performance against the dollar, was down 0.2%. The won's significant decline this year was influenced by political instability after the implementation of martial law and the president's impeachment, the ongoing interest rate disparity between South Korea and the US, and heightened dollar demand resulting from retail investors' foreign stock investments. In June, South Korea chose Lee Jae Myung as its new president. (Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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