India Rupee Review
Ends steady as weak dlr offsets rise in crude oil prices
This story was originally published at 16:09 IST on 26 December 2025
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By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar on Friday as the impact of the rise in crude oil prices was offset by a fall in the dollar index, dealers said. Volumes in the market were lower than usual on account of it being a Boxing Day holiday.
Contrary to the recent past, the rupee moved in a narrow range of 20 paise on Friday. The Indian unit closed the day at 89.8500 a dollar against Wednesday's close of 89.7850 a dollar. Other Asian currencies rose 0.2-0.4% against the dollar.
The Indian unit fell early in the session as risk sentiment worsened after the US carried out air strikes against Islamic State fighters in northwest Nigeria, dealers said.
In a social media post late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had carried out a "powerful and deadly strike" against the Islamic State group in north-western Nigeria. "I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was," Trump said.
However, a slight rise in crude oil prices, and the fears of further increase, kept the rupee under pressure throughout the trading session, dealers said. According to a report by Reuters, oil prices rose on Friday as the US imposed heightened economic pressure on Venezuelan oil exports. Both Venezuela and Nigeria are major oil producers.
Prices also rose following reports that oil shipments from Kazakhstan through the Caspian Pipeline are set to drop by a third in December to the lowest since October 2024 after a Ukrainian drone attack damaged facilities at the main export terminal.
The dollar index recovered slightly but still remained broadly weak, weighed down by a lower than expected reading of the US inital jobless claims. In the US, the Labor Department Wednesday announced that unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 20 stood at 214,000, representing a decline from the previous week's 224,000 and short of the Dow Jones prediction of 225,000.
At 1547 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.07, against 97.95 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday.
Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars to prevent runaway depreciation in the Indian unit but not aggressively.
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply despite a rise in US Treasury yields as banks sold forward dollars on behlaf of exporters, dealers said. The Indian unit recovered from record lows it touched last week, which prompted importers to book forwards at very high levels, dealers said. The recovery in the Indian unit led to a correction in premiums as exporters started selling forward dollars once the rupee appreciated, they said.
The announcement of a swap auction by the Reserve Bank of India also weighed on premiums, dealers said. Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI Tuesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, against Wednesday's close of 2.82%. It touched an intraday low of 2.70% against Wednesday's high of 2.90%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 250.37 paise, against Wednesday's close of 253.30 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Monday, the rupee is expected to open steady against the dollar as market participants remained cautious about developments in the US move to intercept Venezuela's oil tankers.
Following the rupee's sharp appreciation in the previous week, banks will also be cautious about the RBI's intervention through dollar sales. Market participants will also monitor developments relating to the India-US trade deal.
The rupee is expected to move in the 89.00-90.00 range against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.00.
India Rupee: Premium falls as bks' sell fwd dlrs for exporters; US ylds down
| AT 1418 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.8000 | 89.8600 | 89.7375 | 89.9350 | 89.7850 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 244.40 | 249.97 | 250.90 | 242.45 | 253.31 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell sharply despite a rise in US Treasury yields as banks sold forward dollars on behlaf of exporters, dealers said. "Spot rupee has risen so much so exporters are comfortable receiving these levels now, they know premiums will fall after the swap," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
The Indian unit recovered from record lows it touched last week, which prompted importers to book forwards at very high levels, dealers said. The recovery in the Indian unit led to a correction in premiums as exporters started selling forward dollars once the rupee appreciated, they said.
Premiums had surged to over 3-year highs over the past few days due to excess dollar liquidity in the system after the RBI aggressively sold dollars to protect the rupee from sharp depreciation last week, dealers said. Some dealers speculated that the RBI also received premiums to limit the rise while simultaneously sold dollars in the spot market to curb sudden depreciation in the Indian unit.
The announcement of a swap auction by the Reserve Bank of India also weighed on premiums, dealers said. Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI Tuesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion.
At 1407 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, against Tuesday's close of 3.10%. It touched an intraday low of 2.81% against Tuesday's high of 3.26%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 255.74 paise, against Tuesday's close of 279.61 paise. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: In narrow range; weak dollar offsets rise in crude prices
| AT 1342 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.7750 | 89.8600 | 89.7500 | 89.9350 | 89.7850 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 243.40 | 249.97 | 250.90 | 242.45 | 253.31 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was in a narrow range against the dollar as the impact of a rise in crude oil prices was offset by a weak dollar, dealers said. "Volumes are a little low today (Friday) as it's a holiday in most markets. Oilers (oil marketing companies) are there but not much volume," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Dealers said volumes were dull as various markets were closed on Friday for the Boxing Day holiday.
A weak dollar supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The greenback weakened after data showed lower-than-expected jobless claims in the US, they said. The Labor Department Wednesday announced that unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 20 stood at 214,000, representing a decline from the previous week's 224,000 and short of the Dow Jones prediction of 225,000 claims.
A rise in oil prices, however, weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. According to a report by Reuters, oil prices rose Friday as the US imposed heightened economic pressure on Venezuelan oil exports and carried out airstrikes against Islamic State fighters in northwest Nigeria at the request of the Nigerian government. Both Venezuela and Nigeria are major oil producers.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 26
MUMBAI – At 1126 IST, the rupee was at 89.8250 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.8600 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.7850 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.30 | 90.00 | 89.50 | 89.35 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.10 | 90.85 | 89.45 | 89.30 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.00 | 89.90 | 89.30 | 89.00 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee:Steady as weak dlr offsets rise in crude; risk sentiment worsens
| AT 0948 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 89.8025 | 89.8600 | 89.7900 | 89.9350 | 89.7850 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 248.90 | 249.97 | 250.90 | 248.90 | 253.31 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar on Friday as a rise in oil prices was offset by a weak dollar, dealers said. The Indian unit fell early in the session as risk sentiment worsened after the US carried out air strikes against Islamic State fighters in northwest Nigeria, dealers said. "Geopolitical concerns are driving the market now, currency or commodity, everything is reacting to news of war," a dealer at a private bank said.
In a social media post late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the US had carried out a "powerful and deadly strike" against the Islamic State group in north-western Nigeria. "I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was," Trump said.
A rise in oil prices also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. "Interest in oil is there because of these worries, so oilers (oil marketing companies) will keep buying," the dealer said.
A weak dollar supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The greenback weakened after data showed lower than expected jobless claims in the US, they said. The Labor Department Wednesday announced that unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 20 stood at 214,000, representing a decline from the previous week's 224,000 and short of the Dow Jones prediction of 225,000.
At 0950 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.94, against 97.95 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 26
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.00 | 89.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.00 | 89.35 |
| Brokerage firm | 89.85 | 89.45 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.00 | 89.10 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Up; Indonesian rupiah up as central bk holds rates
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar on Friday as the dollar remained weak due to a surging Japanese yen. A lower than expected reading of jobless claims in the US also weighed on the greenback. At 0733 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.94, against 97.95 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday.
In the US, the Labor Department Wednesday announced that unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 20 stood at 214,000, representing a decline from the previous week's 224,000 and short of a Dow Jones prediction of 225,000.
The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.2% against the dollar. Indonesia's central bank decided to keep its policy rates steady at 4.75% for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, prioritising support to the currency, while working to enhance the effects of its previous easing measures.
The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.2% against the dollar. The yuan surpassed the key threshold of 7 yuan per dollar for the first time since September last year amid speculation that China's central bank would permit gradual currency strengthening to enhance market confidence. The action followed the People's Bank of China raising its daily reference rate to the highest point since September of the previous year.
On Wednesday, the central bank guaranteed it would maintain sufficient money supply to back financing, promote economic growth, and meet inflation objectives. Earlier this week, it chose to maintain its primary short-term lending rates.
The Malaysian ringgit was up 0.4% against the dollar. In 2025, the ringgit recorded the best performance in Asia, bolstered by robust economic fundamentals, high exports, and the support of a more accommodative global monetary policy.
The Malaysian currency appreciated almost 9% against the dollar in 2025, trading at about 4.07 per dollar, marking its highest point in nearly five years. (Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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