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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Wednesday as banks bought dollars for importers who sought the greenback for month-end and year-end closing requirements, dealers said. However, banks' dollar sales on behalf of exporters and a weak dollar index limited the fall of the Indian currency, they said. "For companies, a lot of clients abroad follow calendar-year closing, so December end is specially pressurised," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

After rising to an intraday high of 89.5050 a dollar, the rupee erased all gains and closed at 89.7850 per dollar against Tuesday's close of 89.6500. The currency moved within a 32-paise range Wednesday.

 

The rupee started the day largely steady against the dollar as the impact of a rise in oil prices was offset by the weak greenback, dealers said. The dollar weakened because of the softer policy outlook for the US Federal Reserve despite better-than-expected economic data from the US, dealers said.

 

The US Department of Commerce reported Tuesday that the US economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter. That significantly exceeded a Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%. Growth was enhanced by robust consumer spending in the US. The data was delayed from Oct. 30 because of the US government shutdown in autumn.

 

Dealers said oil marketing companies have been active the past few days fearing a sharp increase in crude oil prices going ahead. A rise in crude oil prices limited the gains in the rupee, dealers said. Oil prices closed higher Tuesday and continued to rise in early trade Wednesday as investors evaluated better-than-anticipated US economic growth and the potential for disruptions to oil supply from Venezuela and Russia. The February contract of Brent Crude touched a high of $62.51 a dollar Wednesday, up from Tuesday's close of $62.38. 

 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars around 89.90-a-dollar level. Dealers expect the RBI to sell dollars to support the rupee as it nears the 90-per-dollar mark again. Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI Wednesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion.

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums slumped across tenures Wednesday after the RBI announced a dollar-rupee buy-sell swap Tuesday, dealers said. Premiums had surged to over three-year highs over the past few days owing to excess dollar liquidity in the system after the RBI aggressively sold dollars last week to protect the rupee from sharp depreciation, dealers said. Some dealers speculated that the RBI was also receiving premiums Wednesday to limit the rise while simultaneously selling dollars in the spot market to curb sudden depreciation in the Indian unit. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.82%, against Tuesday's close of 3.10%. It touched an intraday low of 2.81% against Tuesday's high of 3.26%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 253.31 paise, against Tuesday's close of 279.61 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

Markets are closed Thursday for Christmas. Friday, the rupee is expected to open steady against the dollar as market participants remained cautious about developments in the US move to intercept Venezuela's oil tankers.

 

Following the rupee's sharp appreciation in the previous week, banks will also be cautious about the RBI's intervention through dollar sales. Market participants will also monitor developments relating to the India-US trade deal. 

 

The rupee is expected to move in the 89.00-90.00 range against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.00.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr falls despite robust econ data; yen remains up

 

	AT 1604 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3521	1.3535	1.3500	1.3516
EUR/USD	1.1798	1.1809	1.1780	1.1794
NZD/USD	0.5845	0.5853	0.5835	0.5839
AUD/USD	0.6712	0.6717	0.6698	0.6700
USD/JPY	155.8860	156.3340	155.5640	156.2150
USD/CAD	1.3673	1.3694	1.3673	1.3685
EUR/JPY	183.9170	184.3358	183.5660	184.2400
CHF/USD	1.2711	1.2721	1.2675	1.2694
EUR/CHF	0.9281	0.9301	0.9277	0.9288

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index fell against major currencies despite data showing that the US GDP grew more than expected. The possibility of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the divergence between the US and the Japanese monetary policies kept the dollar under pressure.

 

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the US economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter. That significantly exceeded a Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%. Growth was enhanced by robust consumer spending in the US. The data was delayed from Oct. 30 because of the US government shutdown in autumn.

 

US President Donald Trump credited the growth rate to his tariffs. "The TARIFFS are responsible for the GREAT USA Economic Numbers JUST ANNOUNCED," Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform. "AND THEY WILL ONLY GET BETTER! Also, NO INFLATION & GREAT NATIONAL SECURITY."

 

At 1601 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.84, down from 97.88 Tuesday and from 98.24 Monday.

 

The Japanese yen was up 0.3% against the dollar. The yen continued its upward trend against a generally weaker dollar for the third consecutive day and remained close to a one-week high on Wednesday. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's October meeting revealed that board members discussed the necessity of further increasing interest rates.

 

In addition, geopolitical risks arising from escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the possibility of a revived Israel-Iran war enhanced the safe-haven appeal of the yen. 

 

The pound sterling was up 0.1% against the dollar. The British currency remained firm since the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England last Thursday, as it maintained the gradual monetary easing stance.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums slump across tenures as RBI to hold dlr-rupee swap Jan

 

	AT 1411 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.7725	89.5600	89.5050	89.8250	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	255.27	259.77	259.77	251.77	279.61

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums slumped across tenures on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of India announced a dollar-rupee buy-sell swap Tuesday, dealers said. "One of the main reasons for the swap was to push premiums down, that has worked well," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI on Wednesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion. As of 1402 IST, the one-year forward dollar premium fell 27 basis points to 2.83% from 3.10% on Tuesday, while the one-month premium fell over 50 bps to 5.52%.

 

Premiums had surged to over 3-year highs over the past few days due to excess dollar liquidity in the system after the RBI aggressively sold dollars to protect the rupee from sharp depreciation last week, dealers said. Some dealers speculated that the RBI was also receiving premiums on Wednesday to limit the rise while simultaenously selling dollars in the spot market to curb sudden depreciation in the Indian unit. 

 

At 1407 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, against Tuesday's close of 3.10%. It touched an intraday low of 2.81% against Tuesday's high of 3.26%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 255.74 paise, against Tuesday's close of 279.61 paise.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Falls on banks' dlr buys for importers due to year-end demand

 

	AT 1318 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.7800	89.5600	89.5050	89.7875	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	253.31	259.77	259.77	251.77	279.61

 

MUMBAI – The rupee declined against the dollar as banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. "There is month-end and year-end importer bid in the market for dollars, plus a fuel war is boiling," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.  

 

Dealers said oil marketing companies have been active for the past few days fearing a sharp increase in prices going ahead. A rise in crude oil prices limited the gains in the rupee, dealers said. Oil prices closed higher on Tuesday and continued the rise in early trade Wednesday as investors evaluated better-than-anticipated US economic growth and the potential for disruptions to oil supply from Venezuela and Russia. The February contract of Brent crude touched a high of $62.51 a dollar on Wednesday, up from Tuesday's close of $62.38. 

 

A broadly weak dollar supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar weakened due to a softer policy outlook for the US Federal Reserve despite better-than-expected economic data from the US, dealers said. At 1315 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.86, down from 97.88 Tuesday and 98.24 Monday.

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars to support the rupee as it nears the 90-per-dollar mark again. Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI on Wednesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady as rise in crude oil prices offsets weak dollar

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	89.6350	89.5600	89.5050	89.6675	89.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	257.77	259.77	259.77	257.84	279.61

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar on Wednesday as the impact of a rise in oil prices was offset by a weak greenback., dealers said. The dollar weakened despite due to a softer policy outlook for the US Federal Reserve despite better than expected economic data from the US, dealers said. "Dollar weakness is weighing on the pair (dollar/rupee), we can only see a move downwards (towards 89 a dollar) from here," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

At 0939 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.86, down from 97.88 Tuesday and 98.24 Monday.

 

The US Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the US economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter. That significantly exceeded a Dow Jones forecast of 3.2%. Growth was enhanced by robust consumer spending in the US. The data was delayed from Oct. 30 because of the US government shutdown in autumn.

 

However, a rise in crude oil prices limited the gains in the rupee, dealers said. Oil prices closed higher on Tuesday and continued the rise in early trade Wednesday as investors evaluated better-than-anticipated US economic growth and the potential for disruptions to oil supply from Venezuela and Russia.

 

Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to sell dollars to support the rupee after it announced a swap auction in January. Amid excess dollar liquidity in the system, the RBI on Wednesday said it would conduct a three-year, dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction on Jan. 13 for $10 billion. "They will take dollars in the swap and sell it in swap to reduce volatility, that's the plan," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.30 and 90.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up on weak dlr; South Korean won surges over 1%

    

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as the greenback weakened due to a softer policy outlook from the US Federal Reserve and growing divergence between the US and Japanese central banks. The dollar rose despite better-than-expected economic data from the US.   

 

At 0910 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.86, down from 97.88 Tuesday and from 98.24 Monday.

 

The South Korean won surged 1.3% against the dollar after strong verbal intervention from authorities. On Wednesday, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance said that a significantly weak Korean won is not favorable, the Yonhap News Agency reported. The ministry stated that the foreign-exchange market would shortly witness the South Korean government's firm dedication to stabilising the won, the news agency reported citing a press release.

 

The Thai baht rose 0.2% against the dollar. On Tuesday, Lavaron Sangsnit, permanent secretary of the Ministry of Finance, along with Vitai Ratanakorn, governor of the Bank of Thailand, and Pornanong Busaratragoon, secretary-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, conducted a joint press conference regarding the strengthening Thai baht. To curb the sharp appreciation, authorities plan to manage unusually large gold transactions in baht and set maximum trading limits for major gold traders, they said.

 

The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.1% against the dollar. China's yuan rose to a 15-month peak against a declining dollar, despite the central bank indicating growing concern about the currency's recent surge through its official guidance fix.

 

The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the dollar to its highest level in five years in early trade Wednesday, propelled by a declining greenback.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.2% against the dollar. Indonesia announced that it has settled all significant matters in trade discussions with the US and is set to finalise an agreement in late January, alleviating a major source of uncertainty for the largest economy in Southeast Asia.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 24

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.00	89.00
Private-sector bank	89.70	89.30
Brokerage firm	89.65	89.10
Brokerage firm	90.00	89.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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