More Stories

Informist, Friday, Dec. 19, 2025

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – The unprecedented rally in silver prices this year is not yet over, as analysts expect another 10-15% upside in the near term and strong returns going into 2026. However, they recommend caution as the market has reached overbought levels and a correction is warranted.

 

While strong fundamentals such as a supply deficit, robust demand, and interest rate cut expectations in the US were already supporting silver prices, along with robust inflows into exchange-traded funds, China's decision to curb silver exports from January gave the rally its next leg up. Silver prices have more than doubled this year, hitting a fresh record high of $67.18 per ounce on the COMEX and INR 207,833 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India this week.

 

China has announced restrictions on silver exports from 2026, which mandate companies to obtain export licences, as per media reports. "China's export restrictions tighten global silver supply, exacerbating existing deficits and boosting physical market premiums," Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities, said. "The move supports prices, encourages strategic stockpiling, and strengthens silver's safe-haven appeal, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties," Trivedi said.

 

China's decision shows it is more serious about industrial demand for the metal and is taking necessary steps, Ajay Kedia, director of Kedia Stocks and Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd., said.

 

In the short term, Trivedi sees resistance at INR 210,000 per kg and support at INR 165,000 per kg on the MCX. For COMEX, he sees resistance at $67 per ounce and support at $60-$56 per ounce.

 

Even though structural drivers remain in place for silver prices, going into 2026, investors should not expect returns similar to this year, analysts said. "Medium term, silver remains structurally bullish. Persistent supply deficits, rising industrial consumption, especially in solar and EV sectors and safe-haven demand provide upward pressure. Cyclical corrections are possible, but overall fundamentals suggest a continuing positive trend for silver over the next 6–12 months," Trivedi said.

 

Meanwhile, the bullish scenario into next year is not without risks. The metal carries further upside potential of 20–25%, with prices on the domestic bourse seen around INR 245,000-INR 250,000 per kg while international prices are seen around $72.5-$74 per ounce, according to Kedia. "...history suggests caution, as silver has a tendency to correct swiftly after steep rallies, as witnessed in 1980 and 2011. Corrections of 28–30?nnot be ruled out, particularly if ETF-driven investment demand weakens amid better opportunities elsewhere."

 

Another risk is a sharp slowdown in artificial intelligence-related investments, which could weaken demand for chips and data-centre infrastructure while weighing on broader risk sentiment, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a note. "Policy risk is another wildcard. If the US ultimately decides against imposing tariffs on silver, metal currently warehoused domestically could flow back into the global market, easing tightness abruptly. Technically, the market will be watching whether silver can consolidate above the USD 54-55 area," Hansen said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.18

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.