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Informist, Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – The domestic benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Friday, but the bias remains negative as concern over the weak rupee and the lingering uncertainty over the India-US trade deal continue to hurt sentiment. Though foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers of domestic equities Wednesday--the first time this has happened in December--they continue to be mostly short on the market. The continuing outflow of foreign investments has also hurt investor sentiment.

 

Wednesday, FPIs net bought Indian equities worth INR 11.72 billion. They had been net sellers for 14 successive sessions till Tuesday. So far in December, FPIs have net sold domestic equities worth over INR 170 billion. A trade deal between India and the US is expected to bring them back to the domestic market, according to some analysts.

 

Thursday, the rupee rose against the dollar, building on the positive momentum from Wednesday, as state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. However, concern over a further fall in the rupee continues to weigh on sentiment in the near term.

"I don't think rupee will go beyond 91.50-92.00-a-dollar level in the worst-case scenario in the near term," said V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments. "And if there is a trade deal, and it turns out to be a favourable one, then the rupee could appreciate." He expects the rupee to depreciate 4% against the dollar in 2026, largely in line with the depreciation of over 5% seen so far this year. Some analysts were earlier expecting the rupee to depreciate at a much higher 6–7% rate annually in the next year or two. Continued weakness in the rupee amid uncertainty over the India-US trade deal has been one of the main reasons for the recent decline in the stock market, according to analysts.

 

The Nifty 50 settled at 25815.55, just 3 points lower than Wednesday's close. The BSE Sensex closed at 84481.81, down 77.84 points. Both indices have fallen nearly 1% in the past four sessions. "Given the recent correction and the Nifty testing its key support near 25700 (points), there is a possibility of a pullback. On the upside, a sustained move above the short-term 21-day moving average at 26000 (points) would be critical to initiate such a recovery," Nilesh Jain, head of technical and derivatives research analyst at Centrum Broking, said in a note. 

 

Information technology stocks will be in focus Friday after US-based IT giant Accenture reported nearly 6% year-on-year growth in revenue for the November quarter, led by robust demand for its artificial ‌intelligence-driven services. It also retained its sales guidance of 2-5% for 2026. The IT major's total bookings rose 12% on year to $20.9 billion in the quarter.

 

Investors will focus on core US inflation and jobless claims data, due later in the day, for cues on the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in 2026. The outcome of the two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan, which began Thursday, will also be monitored by the Street. The Japanese central bank is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, raising concern about a repeat of the unwinding of the yen carry trade. Market participants will also focus on the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, due Thursday.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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