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Informist, Monday, Dec. 15, 2025

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar for the third session in a row as banks persistently bought dollars for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities and as market participants awaited clarity over the India-US trade deal, dealers said. The fall in the Indian currency was, however, limited and it recovered from its lifetime low as banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and exporters, dealers said.

 

"It wasn't a surprise to be honest, until the clouds around the tariffs are cleared, people will flock out of equity and that is going to affect your FX as well," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

After falling to a record low of 90.7900 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.7300 Monday, shaprly lower than 90.4150 Friday. The rupee moved in a range of 22 paise during the day.

 

The rupee fell sharply to record lows against the dollar in early trade as risk appetite among investors remained dampened owing to the prolonged delay in signing of the India-US trade deal, dealers said. 

 

India has committed to big-ticket purchases of energy products and defence and aviation equipment from the US under the Bilateral Trade Agreement, Informist reported Friday, citing two government officials. However, India has not committed to opening its agricultural sector to any US crop, it said. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran had said Thursday that India and the US are likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out.

 

Further, some banks bought dollars, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from domestic markets, which also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Benchmark indices the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 0.1% lower each.

 

However, as the rupee kept falling, the Reserve Bank of India stepped in through dollar sales to limit losses in the Indian unit, dealers said. Some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters as well, which also supported the rupee. 

 

The dollar index edged higher, after hitting a near two-month low last week following the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, which also weighed on the rupee. At 1616 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.40, up from 98.39 Friday and 98.33 Thursday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7300	90.5450	90.5000	90.7900	90.4150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	241.15	236.92	242.33	236.92	237.31

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to its highest level in over 11 months Monday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers who feared the Indian currency could depreciate further after it fell to a record low of 90.7900 a dollar during the day, dealers said.

 

Premiums rose despite a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields. Long-term US Treasury yields rose Friday with the 30-year yield at its highest since early September, reflecting fiscal worries and rise in inflation. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.19% Friday from 4.14% Thursday. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was at 2.66%, higher than 2.62% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 241.15 paise, against Friday's close of 237.31 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is expected to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies at the opening, dealers said. Market participants will also closely monitor developments related to the India-US trade deal.

 

Further, banks may continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers amid the prevailing uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, keeping the depreciation bias on the rupee intact, dealers said. Dealers also expect importers to buy dollars to meet their calendar year-end payment requirements, weighing on the rupee. However, they expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales in case the rupee comes under extreme depreciation pressure. 

 

Market participants now await a slew of economic data this week that had been delayed by the US government shutdown in Oct-Nov, including the jobs report for November and the monthly CPI. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.50 and 91.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.80.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen jumps as econ data boosts BoJ rate hike hopes

 

	AT 1515 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3383	1.3386	1.3355	1.3370
EUR/USD	1.1742	1.1746	1.1727	1.1745
NZD/USD	0.5785	0.5811	0.5766	0.5801
AUD/USD	0.6647	0.6655	0.6641	0.6653
USD/JPY	154.9770	155.9850	154.9430	155.7510
USD/CAD	1.3763	1.3773	1.3758	1.3778
EUR/JPY	181.9790	183.0020	181.8390	182.9200
CHF/USD	1.2559	1.2589	1.2537	1.2550
EUR/CHF	0.9348	0.9358	0.9340	0.9355

 

NEW DELHI – The Japanese yen surged 0.5% against the dollar as data released Moday showed business sentiment among large Japanese manufacturers hit a four-year high in the three months to December. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates this week. 

 

The headline index measuring big manufacturers' business confidence was at +15 in December, up from +14 in September and matching a median market forecast, the BoJ's "tankan" survey showed. The print, which posted the third consecutive quarter of improvement, was the highest since December 2021. 

 

The pound sterling was flat against the dollar. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted in the three months to October, data released Friday showed, fuelling expectations of rate cut by the Bank of England this week. GDP contracted 0.1% in Aug-Oct. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a flat reading. Economists polled by Reuters are unanimous that the BoE will cut interest rates on Thursday.

 

The euro was also steady against the US unit ahead of the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday, where it is expected to hold rates. The dollar index was broadly weak amid the prospect of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve next year.

 

Market participants now await a slew of economic data that were delayed by the US government shutdown, including the jobs report for November and the monthly consumer price index, for clarity on the Fed's rate trajectory. Investors are pricing in two rate cuts next year, after the US Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds target range by 25 bps last week. 

 

At 1515 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.32, down from 98.39 Friday and 98.33 Thursday. The Australian dollar was steady against the dollar. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Premium over 11-mo high; importers buy fwd dlrs as rupee slumps

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6525	90.5450	90.5000	90.7900	90.4150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	240.42	236.92	242.33	236.92	237.31

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged its highest level in over 11 months Monday as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers who feared the Indian currency could depreciate further after it fell to a record low of 90.7900 a dollar, dealers said.

 

"Long-term view is also clouded because of the trade deal, so people are booking whatever level they get," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

In the spot market, the rupee fell to a record low of 90.79 a dollar as foreign portfolio investors exited Indian equities and risk appetite was dampened by the continued delay in the India-US trade deal. At 1345 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.1?ch.

 

Premiums rose despite a rise in 10-year US Treasury yields. Long-term US Treasury yields rose Friday with the 30-year yield at its highest since early September, reflecting fiscal worries and increased inflation. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.19% Friday from 4.14% Thursday. 

 

At 1358 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.66%, up from 2.62% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 240.42 paise, against Friday's close of 237.31 paise.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Falls to record lows on FX outflows, India-US trade deal delay

 

	AT 1252 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7300	90.5450	90.5000	90.7775	90.4150
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	241.42	236.92	241.42	236.92	237.31

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell to record lows against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, dealers said. At 1249 IST, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 were down 0.1?ch. 

 

"A lot of things going on at the moment, the quesions around the trade talks (between India and the US) , volatility in stocks, nothing is sure as of now. The uncertainty supports dollar," a dealer at a state-owend bank said.

 

A dampened risk appetite due to the delay in India-US trade deal also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. India has committed to big-ticket purchases of energy products and defence and aviation equipment from the US under the Bilateral Trade Agreement talks, Informist reported Friday, citing two government officials. However, India has not committed to opening its agricultural sector to any US crop, it said.

 

Dealers said some exporters sold dollars looking to take advantage of the higher dollar/rupee levels, which supported the Indian unit. Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars to prevent further losses in the local unit, albeit not agressively. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80.  (Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 15

 

MUMBAI – At 1048 IST, the rupee was at 90.7100 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.5450 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.4150 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	-	91.00	90.30	-
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.85	89.90	89.70
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.80	90.00	89.80
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.80	89.80	89.50

 

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India Rupee: At record low on US trade deal delay; RBI dlr sales speculated

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6350	90.5450	90.5050	90.6450	90.4150

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a record low against the dollar as risk appetite among investors remained dampened owing to prolonged delay in the India-US trade deal, dealers said. The rupee hit a lifetime low of 90.6450 a dollar shortly after opening. "We were expecting some news on the trade deal side over the weekend, but nothing has happened," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Till the time there is no concrete details on the deal, the buying pressure (of dollars) on rupee will stay."

 

India has committed to big-ticket purchases of energy products and defence and aviation equipment from the US under the Bilateral Trade Agreement talks, Informist reported Friday, citing two government officials. However, India has not committed to opening its agricultural sector to any US crop, it said. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran had said Thursday that India and the US are likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out.

 

Further, some banks bought dollars, likely on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to pull out funds from domestic markets, which also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0940 IST, the Sensex and the Nifty 50 were down 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. 

 

Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars to prevent further losses in the local unit, albeit not agressively. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.70.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 15

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.68	90.25
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.30
Foreign bank	90.60	90.20
Brokerage firm	90.80	90.40
Brokerage firm	90.68	90.28

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Chinese yuan flat despite weak econ data

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as market participants await multiple economic data and policy decisions by global central banks this week. However, a fall in domestic equities and a rise in the dollar index weighed on Asian units. 

 

Among decisions by major central banks this week, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, while the Bank of England may make an equal-sized cut to 3.75%. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold. Further, a slew of economic data that has been delayed by the US government shutdown, including the jobs report for November and the monthly consumer price index, is due to be released this week.

 

The dollar index edged higher, after hitting a near two-month low last week following the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points. At 0822 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.45, up from 98.39 Friday and 98.33 Thursday.

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.4% against the dollar, and both the South Korean won and the Phillipine peso fell 0.1%. South Korea's Financial Services Commission Monday said it has decided to extend bond market stabilisation programmes through next year, citing risk from monetary policy changes at home and abroad as well as increases in treasury bond issuance.

 

The Chinese yuan was flat against the greenback even after multiple economic data released Monday showed weakness in the world's second-largest economy. China's factory output and retail sales growth slowed further in November, weighed down by weak domestic demand. Industrial output rose 4.8% year-on-year, slowing from 4.9% growth in October. It missed a 5.0% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 1.3%, after rising 2.9% in October, lagging the forecast of a 2.8% rise.

 

China's new home prices further declined in November. Prices fell 0.4% month-on-month, compared with a 0.5% decline in October. Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit rose 0.2% against the US unit, while the Thai baht was flat.  (Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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