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Informist, Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

By Anshul Choudhary

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to rise next week, with the two-day gains lifting sentiment. With the Nifty 50 index closing above its immediate resistance of 26000 points, it is expected to rise more next week, technical analysts said. However, selling pressure at higher levels is likely amid looming risks, including the unwinding of the yen carry trade, further delays in the India-US trade deal, and elevated stock valuations.

The Nifty 50 has been rangebound for a month, mainly due to delays in the India-US trade deal, analysts said. "Categories currently at 50% tariff rates remain particularly under severe stress. Till this (trade deal) happens, financial markets in India remain vulnerable to periodic sell-downs, and equities will not be immune to contagion," Amit Kumar Gupta, founder of Fintrekk Capital, said in a post on LinkedIn.

Earlier, market participants had expected the US-India trade deal to be signed by November, but that has not panned out. While the government's Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran hinted that India would sign a deal by March, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has declined to provide a timeline. "I don't think we should ever negotiate with deadlines or hard stops because we tend to make mistakes," Goyal said at a press conference in Mumbai on Thursday.

Additionally, unwinding the yen carry trade is a potential risk, as the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates by 25 bps to 0.75% at its meeting, which concludes on Dec. 18. Further, Reuters reported, quoting sources, that the central bank next week is expected to maintain its pledge to keep raising rates. This could lead to a sell-off across markets, as a significant share of global investments over the years has been financed with borrowings from Japan at low interest rates, which were near zero at one point. 

Technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 to face resistance around 26300 points next week. The index is likely to find support at 25850-25900 points. Friday, the Nifty 50 closed at 26046.95 points, down just 1% from its lifetime high of 26325.80 points touched last week. End

Reported by Anshul Choudhary

Edited by Saji George Titus

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