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Informist, Friday, Dec. 12, 2025

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar for the second successive trading day. However, the fall of the Indian currency was limited and it recovered from its lifetime low as banks persisted in selling dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and exporters, dealers said. Greenback purchases on behalf of importers and corporations weighed on the rupee during the day, they said. 

 

"It was a volatile session from the start, but RBI intervened quickly to curb losses," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "After that, it was a two-way market through and through."

 

After touching a record low of 90.5600 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.4150 Friday, slightly lower than 90.3675 Thursday. The rupee moved in a range of 29 paise during the day.

 

The rupee started the day slightly lower against the dollar and hit a lifetime low shortly afterwards as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil-marketing companies and other importers seeking to meet year-end payment needs, dealers said. Importers also continuously bought the greenback, fearing further depreciation in the rupee, they said. The rupee has depreciated 0.5% against the dollar this week and fallen over 1% so far this month.

 

Further, some banks bought the greenback for corporate payment-linked foreign fund outflows, dealers said. The continued delay in the India-US trade deal has dampened risk appetite among investors, exerting pressure on the rupee, they said.

 

India has committed to big-ticket purchases of energy products and defence and aviation equipment from the US under the Bilateral Trade Agreement talks, Informist reported Friday, citing two government officials. However, India has not committed to opening its agricultural sector to any US crop, it said. Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran had said Thursday that India and the US are likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out.

 

However, the central bank probably stepped in with dollar sales when the rupee was around 90.56 a dollar, helping the Indian currency to regain ground, dealers said. The intervention was likely aggressive, they said. The RBI likely sold around $1.5 billion in the spot market Friday, some dealers said. "The RBI has been letting the rupee fall 10 paise everyday. They are not targeting any level but ensuring there is no free fall in the rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

Noting the RBI's intervention, banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of exporters and make the most of the higher dollar-rupee level, which helped the local currency rise to 90.2750, dealers said. However, the rise was short-lived as banks also rushed to buy dollars for importers, they said.

 

The rupee got no relief from weakness in the US Dollar Index, which hit a near-two-month low Thursday after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.44, slightly higher than 98.33 Thursday but down from 98.64 Wednesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.4150	90.4225	90.2750	90.5600	90.3675
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.31	235.16	238.31	234.18	236.07

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended largely steady Friday on lack of significant cues amid broadly unchanged US Treasury yields, dealers said. The premium was up slightly in early trade as importers bought forward dollars, noting the sudden depreciation in the Indian currency, they said. "Forwards have seen volatile moves in the last few days, some consolidation seems to be happening now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Dealers said premiums were also steady ahead of the RBI's $5 billion dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction Tuesday, where it will buy dollars for immediate delivery and sell them for delivery after 36 months.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.62%, broadly steady from 2.61% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.31 paise, against Thursday's close of 236.07 paise.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is expected to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies at the opening, dealers said. Market participants will also closely monitor developments related to the India-US trade deal. "Till announcement of trade deal comes, we expect rupee to continue falling as inflows have become negligible in comparison to outflows," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP.

 

Further, banks may continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers amid the prevailing uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, keeping the depreciation bias on the rupee intact, dealers said. However, they expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales in case the rupee comes under extreme depreciation pressure. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.20 and 90.70 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.70.

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India Rupee - World FX: Sterling falls on weak GDP data; Canadian dlr rises

 

	AT 1523 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3381	1.3400	1.3374	1.3386
EUR/USD	1.1731	1.1747	1.1727	1.1736
NZD/USD	0.5813	0.5820	0.5808	0.5805
AUD/USD	0.6668	0.6677	0.6659	0.6663
USD/JPY	155.8910	155.9140	155.4570	155.5720
USD/CAD	1.3762	1.3789	1.3755	1.3769
EUR/JPY	182.8880	182.9435	182.3700	182.5810
CHF/USD	1.2580	1.2593	1.2567	1.2570
EUR/CHF	0.9324	0.9340	0.9324	0.9334

 

NEW DELHI – The pound sterling was down 0.2% against the dollar as UK's GDP data for October showed that the economy contracted 0.1%, missing expectations of 0.1% expansion. The contraction in UK's GDP is expected to further boost expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England at next week's policy meeting, weighing on the currency. 

 

The Swiss franc was down 0.1% against the dollar after the outcome of its central bank meeting on Thursday. Switzerland's central bank maintained rates at 0% due to inflation being somewhat lower than anticipated. Global economic growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, the central bank said in a statement, nothing that "US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on the global economy, economic development in many countries has thus far remained more resilient than had been assumed."

 

The Canadian dollar was up 0.1% against the greenback as the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. In the monetary policy statement on Wednesday, the central bank reiterated that the "current rate is at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%" as long as the "economy and inflation evolve in line with projections".

 

The dollar index recovered slightly from the lows it touched after the Federal Reserve announced its deciscion to cut rates. At 0030 IST on Thursday, the US central bank announced a cut of a quarter percentage point in its key overnight borrowing rate, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75%. At 1524 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.42, slightly higher than 98.33 Thursday, but down from 98.64 Wednesday. 

 

Investors now await the European Central Bank and Bank of England's policy meetings, both scheduled for Dec. 18. Inflation in Europe is widely considered to be neutral, with the ECB's easing cycle expected to be over.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premium steady tracking unch US ylds; trade deal clarity awaited

 

	AT 1334 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3650	90.4225	90.2750	90.5600	90.3675
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.81	235.16	237.81	234.18	236.07

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was steady on Friday tracking largely unchanged US Treausury yields, dealers said. The premium was slightly up in early trade as importers bought forward dollars noting the sudden depreciation in the spot currency, they said. 

 

"A little paying happenend in the morning but nothing after that. People are waiting for the trade deal to cement before taking long positions," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. 

 

Yield on the benchmark US Treasury note was steady Friday after it fell due to a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee. At 0030 IST on Thursday, the US central bank announced a cut of a quarter percentage point in its key overnight borrowing rate, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75%.

 

Market participants await clarity on the India-US trade deal, they said. Until a decision is reached, the dollar will remain in favour on both ends of the curve, dealers said.   

 

At 1334 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.63%, up from 2.61% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 237.81 paise, against Thursday's close of 236.07 paise.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Recovers on bks' dlr sales for exporters, RBI; weak dlr supports

 

	AT 1221 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3725	90.4225	90.2750	90.5600	90.3675

 

MUMBAI – The rupee recovered all losses and rose against the dollar as banks persistently sold the greenback on behalf of exporters and the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. "They (RBI) were there around 50 (90.50) and that gave a signal to exporters so they have taken over," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

After falling to a record low of 90.5600 a dollar soon after opening, the Indian unit recovered and rose to the day's high of 90.2750 a dollar. Dealers said dollar demand from importers kept the pressure on rupee. 

 

The rupee fell earlier as banks bought dollars for outflows from Indian corporates for year-end book closing, dealers said. Oil marketing companies also bought dollars, which too weighed on the local unit, they said. 

 

A rise in local indices supported the Indian unit. At 1216 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.4?ch. The rupee was also supported by a broadly weak dollar. At 1220 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.40, slightly higher than 98.33 Thursday, but down from 98.64 Wednesday. 

 

Market participants look forward to developments in the India-US trade deal, uncertainty around which has been one of the main reasons for the depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.10 and 90.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.60.  (Kabir Sharma)  

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India Rupee: Hits record low on FX outflows, dollar buys by oil importers

 

	AT 0948 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.4425	90.4225	90.4225	90.5600	90.3675
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	237.05	235.16	237.05	235.16	236.07

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for year-end outflows from Indian corporates and for oil marketing companies, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a record low of 90.5600 a dollar soon after opening. 

 

"Corporates, oilers, everyone is buying to avoid getting it (dollars) more expensive at year-end," a dealer at a private bank said. "The trade deal rumours are also playing a role." 

Some dealers said the delay in the trade deal between India and the US also weighed on the local currency. Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran Thursday said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that India and the US were likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out. Market participants took this as a cue for further delay in the trade deal, which weighed on the rupee.

 

However, some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters citing attractive levels, which supported the rupee, dealers said. A rise in local indices also supported the Indian unit. At 0944 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.5?ch. 

 

A weak dollar index failed to provide the expected fillip to the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1000 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.40, slightly higher than 98.33 Thursday, but down from 98.64 Wednesday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.10 and 90.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.60.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 12

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.50	90.00
Private-sector bank	90.45	90.10
Private-sector bank	90.57	90.02
Brokerage firm	90.60	89.90
Brokerage firm	90.55	90.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Up as dlr stays near multi-month lows on Fed rate cut

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies were higher against the dollar in early trade Friday as the dollar index fell to multi-month lows after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates. At 0030 IST on Thursday, the US central bank announced a cut of a quarter percentage point in its key overnight borrowing rate, bringing it to a range of 3.5-3.75%.

 

At 0805 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.38, slightly higher than 98.33 Thursday and 98.64 Wednesday. The index fell to 98.54 in early trade, its lowest level since Oct. 21.

 

The Thai baht was 0.1% higher against the dollar. In Thailand, Prime Minister Anutin plans to dissolve parliament and call for a general election, adding to political uncertainty at a time of slowing economic growth and renewed cross-border tensions with Cambodia. 

 

The Taiwan dollar continued its rise against the greenback and was up 0.2% in early trade on Friday. The South Korean won, the Indonesial rupiah, and the Malaysian ringgit were up 0.1?ch against the dollar. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Philippines peso was down 0.2% against the dollar after the central bank of the Philippines reduced its benchmark policy rate for the fifth consecutive meeting on Thursday to promote growth, indicating that its easing cycle was approaching a conclusion, with any additional changes to be constrained and reliant on data. The Philippines central bank cut rates by 25 bps at its December meeting, bringing the policy rate to 4.50% from 4.75%.  (Kabir Sharma)  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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