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Informist, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 amid an improving macroeconomic and trade outlook. For 2026, global oil demand growth is forecast to accelerate on higher demand for petrochemical feedstocks, the energy watchdog said in its monthly outlook.

 

The Paris-based intergovernmental organisation expects oil demand to rise by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026. "Gasoil and jet/kerosene account for half of this year's gains, with fuel oil losing ground to natural gas and solar in power generation," it said. 

 

In terms of supply, the projected global oil surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 has narrowed since last month's report, as the relentless surge in global oil supply came to an abrupt halt, the agency said. Notably, global oil supply in November was down by 610,000 barrels per day from October and by a whopping 1.5 million barrels per day from September's all-time high.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounted for 80% of the decline over the two-month period, reflecting significant unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan, while output from sanctions-hit Russia and Venezuela contracted sharply. 

 

Russia's total oil exports fell by roughly 400,000 barrels per day in November to 6.9 million barrels per day, as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions, the report said. As a result, Urals prices plunged by $8.2 per barrel to $43.52 per barrel, dragging export revenues to their lowest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it said.

 

However, Iran's oil loadings have remained around 1.9 million barrels per day in recent months. However, with Chinese independent refiners pausing buying amid exhausted import quotas, Iranian oil on water surged by 40 million barrels since August. Global oil supply remains on track to rise by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and a further 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, it said.

 

Global crude oil stocks rose by 424 million barrels from January through November, or 1.3 million barrels per day on average. Notably, crude oil on water has surged by 213 million barrels since the end of August, as sanctioned barrels struggled to find buyers, the report said. China's crude stocks rose by 58 million barrels from January to November, while US gas liquids rose by 63 million barrels. But in stark contrast to the broader picture, crude and refined product stocks in key pricing hubs have seen only marginal builds.

Despite record volumes of oil piling up on water, benchmark crude oil prices eased only marginally in November, the energy agency said. At 1735 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was 1.1% lower at $61.18 per barrel, and WTI crude on NYMEX was at $57.73 per barrel, down 0.7%.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.36

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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