India Rupee Review
At record closing low on FX outflows, delay in trade deal
This story was originally published at 17:49 IST on 11 December 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025
By Kabir Sharma
NEW DELHI – After falling to a record low earlier in the day, the rupee ended at a record closing low Thursday as banks persistently bought dollars for corporate-linked foreign fund outflows and on behalf of importers, dealers said. A weak risk appetite due to further delay in the India-US trade deal also weighed on the risk sentiment of investors, pressurising the rupee, they said.
The Indian unit fell to a record low of 90.4825 during the day before recovering slightly and closing at 90.3675 a dollar against Wednesday's close of 89.9650 a dollar. This was the sharpest intraday fall in the rupee since Nov. 21.
"The Indian rupee weakened past 90/$, hitting another fresh record low, pressured by corporate dollar outflows, which added to concerns over the absence of a US-India trade deal. The outflows were driven by Indian companies buying dollars for end-of-year international payments, alongside demand from foreign and local private lenders likely linked to merchant transactions," Jigar Trivedi, a senior research analyst at Reliance Securities, said.
The rupee opened sharply lower against the greenback as banks purchased dollars immediately after open to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity with the non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said. Further, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit, which also subsequently weighed on the rupee, dealers said.
The Indian unit was expected to open higher against the dollar as the dollar index fell to an over seven-week low after the US Federal Reserve Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%, in line with expectations. The summary of economic projections showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026, as per the median of expectations of Fed officials.
The dollar index also fell after Fed Chair Powell's comment that the central bank's next move was unlikely to be a rate hike, considering that is not the base case reflected in new projections from policymakers. At 1613 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.59, down from 98.64 Wednesday and from 99.24 Tuesday. The index fell to 98.54 in early trade, its lowest level since Oct. 21.
The rupee continued its fall and declined to record lows during the day as corporates persistently bought dollar for outflows, dealers said. Sentiment around the Indian unit was also damapened by a delay in the India-US trade deal, dealers said.
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran Thursday said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that India and the US are likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out. Market participants took this as a cue for a further delay in the trade deal, which weighed on the rupee.
Nageswaran's comments come after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Wednesday said that a delegation of US officials is in India for negotiations on the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement. Talks with the US are progressing, and the two sides are moving forward towards a bilateral trade agreement, he said. The delegation of US trade officials, led by Deputy US Trade Representative Rick Switzer, concluded its visit to New Delhi Thursday, Informist reported earlier in the day, citing government officials. The commerce ministry is likely to release a statement later in the day detailing the progress on discussions between the two countries on the Bilateral Trade Agreement during the latest visit.
Dealers said the central bank likely sold dollars around 90.48 a dollar, which limited losses in the rupee. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.3675 | 89.9800 | 89.9625 | 90.4825 | 89.9650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 236.07 | 231.19 | 239.31 | 228.97 | 229.85 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium jumped due to a fall in US Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight interest rate cut Thursday, dealers said. The US Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected.
Some banks also bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which also boosted premiums, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.63%, up from 2.54% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 236.07 paise, against Wednesday's close of 229.85 paise.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement in the dollar index after the release of US unemployment claims data, dealers said. The number of individuals claiming jobless benefits is expected to come in at 220,000, higher than the prior reading of 191,000, according to a poll by FXStreet.
Banks may continue to buy dollars on behalf of importers amid the prevailing delay in the India-US trade deal, keeping the depreciation bias on the rupee intact, dealers said.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00 and 90.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.50 and long-term is seen at 90.80.
India Rupee - World FX: Sterling rises as dlr hits 7-wk low post Fed rate cut
| AT 1518 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3359 | 1.3392 | 1.3355 | 1.3382 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1699 | 1.1708 | 1.1682 | 1.1695 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5804 | 0.5820 | 0.5789 | 0.5813 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6650 | 0.6679 | 0.6627 | 0.6675 |
| USD/JPY | 155.8690 | 156.1630 | 155.4920 | 156.0080 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3808 | 1.3823 | 1.3786 | 1.3790 |
| EUR/JPY | 182.3550 | 182.5600 | 181.9390 | 182.4400 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2523 | 1.2533 | 1.2495 | 1.2498 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9342 | 0.9365 | 0.9335 | 0.9355 |
NEW DELHI – The pound sterling was up 0.4% against the greenback on Thursday as the dollar index fell to a seven-week low after the Federal Open Market Committee reduced the federal funds target range by 25 basis points for the third straight meeting to 3.50-3.75%. The summary of economic projections showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026, as per the median of expectations of Fed officials.
At 1516 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.60, down from 98.64 Wednesday and 99.24 Tuesday. The index fell to 98.54 in early trade, its lowest level since Oct. 21.
From Friday until the Bank of England's meeting next Thursday, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release monthly GDP data for October, labour market data for the three months ending October, and the Consumer Price Index data for November.
Bucking the trend, the Canadian dollar was down 0.2% against the dollar. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25%, as widely expected. Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving robust overall to the impact of US trade measures, adding that the impact of tariffs had not totally spilled over into the broader economy.
The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar owing to the broad-based weakness in the greenback. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Wednesday said the euro zone economy was proving resilient to trade tensions and the bloc was growing close to its potential, which could prompt the central bank to lift growth projections next week. "In the last projection exercises, we have upgraded our projections," Lagarde said at a Financial Times event. "My suspicion is that we might do that again in December."
On Thursday, market participants will focus on US initial jobless claims data for the week ended Dec. 5. The number of individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time is expected to come in at 220,000, higher than the prior reading of 191,000, according to a poll by FXStreet. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Hits record low on outflows, delay in trade deal; RBI caps fall
| AT 1416 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.4000 | 89.9800 | 89.9625 | 90.4825 | 89.9650 |
MUMBAI – The rupee hit a record low of 90.4825 against the dollar, weighed down by corporate-linked foreign fund outflows and weak risk appetite owing to continued delay in the India-US trade deal, dealers said. However, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the fall of the Indian unit, they said.
Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran Thursday said India and the US are likely to secure a trade deal by March, with most trade-related issues having been ironed out. Market participants took this as a cue for a further delay in the trade deal, which weighed on the rupee.
Dealers said the central bank likely sold dollars around 90.48 a dollar. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. "RBI is just trying to keep the movement orderly. I don't think they are targetting any level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.50. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Premium jumps as US yields fall after Fed cuts rate by 25 bps
| AT 1314 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.3450 | 89.9800 | 89.9625 | 90.4100 | 89.9650 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 238.04 | 231.19 | 235.81 | 228.97 | 229.85 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium jumped due to a fall in US Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve delivered its third straight interest rate cut Thursday, dealers said. The US Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%, as widely expected.
The summary of economic projections showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026, as per the median of expectations of Fed officials. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell declined to provide guidance on future rates, investors garnered some hope of easing from his comments, saying the labour market has significant downside risks and that the central bank doesn't want its policy to push down job creation.
"Powell's comments were not as hawkish as we had expected. So, the hope of more rate cuts is still alive. We are seeing paying due to that," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.13% Wednesday from 4.18% Tuesday.
Some banks also bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee. which also boosted premiums, dealers said. On Thursday, the rupee fell over 0.4% against the dollar to hit a low of 90.4100, just shy of its lifetime low of 90.4225.
At 1314 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.64%, up from 2.54% Wednesday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 238.04 paise, against Wednesday's close of 229.85 paise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Slumps near record low on corporate outflows; stop losses hit
| AT 1210 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.3200 | 89.9800 | 89.9625 | 90.4100 | 89.9650 |
MUMBAI – The rupee slumped to near its record low against the dollar as foreign and state-owned banks bought dollars for foreign fund outflows related to corporate payments, dealers said. The Indian unit slumped 0.4% against the greenback, taking no comfort from the positive sentiment on account of a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve Thursday, they said. The Indian currency hit a low of 90.4100 a dollar, just shy of its lifetime low of 90.4225.
"There were some mid-month corporate payments lined up, which hammered the rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "I am expecting RBI to come near 90.40." Outflows and oil importers' dollar purchases led to stop losses being triggered on short dollar bets around 90.30 a dollar, which further exacerbated the rupee's fall, dealers said.
While some dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India may have sold dollars around 90.41 to prevent a record low, most said the central bank remained absent from the currency market. However, some banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the relatively higher dollar-rupee rates, which helped limit rupee's losses.
Meanwhile, market participants also assessed Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran's comments Thursday, saying that India and the US have ironed out "most of their pending differences" on trade, and that a formal agreement could be in place by March. "Although this news is positive for rupee in medium term, continuous delay in reaching the deal is also weighing on rupee," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Nageswaran's comments come after Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Wednesday said that a delegation of US officials is in India for negotiations on the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement. Talks with the US are progressing, and the two sides are moving forward towards a bilateral trade agreement, he said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.10 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.50. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 11
MUMBAI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 90.3000 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.9800 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.9650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 90.80 | 90.50 | 89.70 | 89.50 |
| Private-sector bank | - | 90.40 | 89.70 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 90.50 | 90.40 | 89.75 | 89.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.50 | 90.30 | 89.70 | 89.40 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Falls despite dlr weakness as bks buy dlrs noting NDF arbitrage
| AT 0930 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.1300 | 89.9800 | 89.9625 | 90.1525 | 89.9650 |
MUMBAI – Shrugging off the weakness in the dollar, the rupee fell sharply against the greenback as banks purchased dollars immediately after open to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity with the non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said. Banks also bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said.
"We were expecting the rupee to appreciate but looks like some buying (of dollars) came in offshore," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Also, I think the market had priced in the rate cut very well in the last few days, so whatever appreciation had to happen has already happend. We may continue seeing buying (of dollars)."
The rupee was expected to open higher against the dollar as the dollar index fell to an over seven-week low after the US Federal Reserve Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.50-3.75%, in line with expectations. The summary of economic projections showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026, as per the median of expectations of Fed officials.
The dollar index also fell after Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed's next move was unlikely to be a rate hike, considering that is not the base case reflected in new projections from policymakers. At 0930 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.65, up from 98.64 Wednesday but down from 99.24 Tuesday. The index fell to 98.54 in early trade, its lowest level since Oct. 21.
Further, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the Indian unit, which further weighed on the rupee, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.20. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 11
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.40 | 89.71 |
| State-owned bank | 90.10 | 89.70 |
| State-owned bank | 90.40 | 89.80 |
| State-owned bank | 90.10 | 89.75 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.10 | 89.80 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.10 | 89.75 |
| Foreign bank | 90.15 | 89.65 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.08 | 89.68 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.20 | 89.70 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Rise as dlr index hits 7-wk low after Fed cuts rate
MUMBAI – Asian currencies rose against the dollar as the dollar index declined to an over seven-week low after the US Federal Reserve Thursday cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third straight meeting to 3.50-3.75%, in line with expectations.
The summary of economic projections showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026, as per the median of expectations of Fed officials. The dollar index also fell after Fed Chair Powell's comment that the Fed's next move was unlikely to be a rate hike, considering that is not the base case reflected in new projections from policymakers.
At 0830 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.58, down from 98.64 Wednesday and 99.24 Tuesday. The index fell to 98.54 in early trade, its lowest level since Oct. 21.
The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.3% against the dollar, the most among its peers, while both the Phillipine peso and Indonesian rupiah gained 0.2%. Indonesia on Wednesday decided to impose duties on exports of gold products from Dec. 23, a measure that could attract revenue of $180 million for the country next year.
Both the Chinese yuan and the Taiwan dollar were up 0.1% against the dollar and the Thai baht was up 0.2%. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won was flat against the dollar after Kim Jong-hwa, member of the Bank of Korea's monetary policy board, Wednesday said that foreign exchange authorities need to take action to curb the won's decline against the dollar, as it may reignite inflationary pressure and weaken retail purchasing power. "As forex authorities, we can't sit and do nothing about this high FX rate and we need to think of measures in terms of (adjusting) supply and demand," he said. (Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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