India Rupee Review
Settles off lows as exporters, likely RBI sell dollars
This story was originally published at 16:50 IST on 8 December 2025
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By Pratiksha
MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its earlier lows against the dollar Monday due to banks' greenback sales on behalf of exporters and likely for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Corporate-linked foreign fund outflows and importers' dollar purchases had weighed on the Indian unit earlier in the day, they said.
"The market was in a predictable range with some support on the higher side (of dollar-rupee)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "It is just demand-supply dynamics playing out, unless we see some major flows."
After hitting a low of 90.2600 a dollar, the rupee ended at 90.0700 Monday, compared to 89.9800 on Friday. The Indian unit traded in a range of 21 paise during the day.
The rupee began the day lower against the dollar as banks purchased dollars immediately after open in order to take advantage of arbitrage opportunity with the non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said. Further, banks also bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who expect the rupee to depreciate further after it fell 0.6% and hit a record low last week, they said.
"There is no scarcity of demand (for dollars) in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Which is why we saw demand coming from offshore levels itself."
The Indian unit fell to its day's low shortly after opening as some banks bought dollars, likely for foreign fund outflows from an Indian corporate, according to dealers.
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell the greenback, likely on behalf of the RBI, to prevent further losses in the Indian unit, dealers said. The central bank was likely intermittently present in the currency market during the day, which supported the Indian unit, they said.
Further, banks also sold dollars on behalf of exporters, noting the relatively higher dollar-rupee levels, which also helped the Indian unit pare losses, dealers said. "Exporters were quite underhedged before but now they seem to be coming back to the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Exporters may have also sold the greenback, noting the central bank's likely intervention in the currency market, dealers said.
During the second half of trading, the Indian unit was also weighed down by a sharp fall in domestic benchmark equities, dealers said. On Monday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended lower by 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the dollar index remained broadly weak ahead of an expected rate cut by the US Federal Reserve Wednesday, which provided some support to the Indian unit, dealers said. Fed funds futures are pricing in an 87.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.94, down from 98.99 Friday and 99.07 Thursday. The index hit a low of 98.79 during the day.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.0700 | 90.0625 | 90.0500 | 90.2600 | 89.9800 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 235.13 | 226.29 | 235.13 | 225.31 | 220.37 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended at a one-year high as the RBI likely delivered dollars against some of its outstanding forward sales, dealers said.
"There is sort of a dollar glut in the system as the RBI is letting its positions mature," the dealer at a foreign bank said. "People were expecting it will sterilise its positions, but that's not the case so far."
Further, some banks purchased dollars for forward delivery, to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, which also boosted the premiums, they said. Premiums also gained as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear a further fall in the rupee, dealers said.
However, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, noting the relatively higher levels, which limited gains for the premiums, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium has gained over 40 bps so far this month.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.61%, sharply up from 2.45% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 235.13 paise, against Friday's close of 220.37 paise
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the rupee may remain under downward pressure as importers may continue to buy dollars. fearing further fall in the rupee, amid looming uncertainty over the India-US trade deal, dealers said.
"The rupee may trade in similar range and then move towards 90.50 slowly, as the trade deal has still not happened," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. India and the US are likely to begin three-day discussions on the first phase of their proposed bilateral trade agreement from Wednesday, according to media reports.
However, dealers expect dollar sales on behalf of exporters, noting the recent weakness in the rupee, which will provide cushion to the local unit. The Indian currency may also take cues from movement in the dollar index ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's decision Wednesday, when it is expected cut rates by 25 bps, they said. Market participants will also watch out for policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the interest rate path ahead.
The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.80 to 90.30 against the dollar Tuesday. Immediate technical support for the rupee is pegged at 90.30.
India Rupee - World FX: Euro rises after ECB official's comments; yen falls
| AT 1600 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3322 | 1.3346 | 1.3314 | 1.3341 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1650 | 1.1672 | 1.1640 | 1.1643 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5784 | 0.5791 | 0.5771 | 0.5775 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6637 | 0.6649 | 0.6633 | 0.6641 |
| USD/JPY | 155.4390 | 155.5420 | 154.9050 | 155.3650 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3821 | 1.3856 | 1.3814 | 1.3825 |
| EUR/JPY | 181.0890 | 181.2120 | 180.5013 | 180.8900 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2433 | 1.2457 | 1.2424 | 1.2416 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9369 | 0.9376 | 0.9356 | 0.9376 |
MUMBAI – The euro rose 0.1% against the dollar after European Central Bank's board member Isabel Schnabel told Bloomberg News in an interview published on Monday that the central bank's next move may be an interest rate hike, rather than a cut as some still expect. However, the hike will not happen in the near future, she said.
"Both markets and survey participants expect that the next rate move is going to be a hike, albeit not anytime soon," Schnabel was quoted as saying. "I'm rather comfortable with those expectations." The ECB has reduced rates by a total of 2 percentage points in the year to June, but it has since kept them steady.
Meanwhile, data released Monday showed Germany's industrial production rose much more than expected in October. Industrial production increased by 1.8% compared with the previous month. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.4% rise.
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% against the greenback after revised government data Monday showed Japan's economy contracted faster than initially reported in Jul-Sept from the previous three-month period. The revised figure for GDP showed the economy shrank 2.3% on year, the fastest contraction since the third quarter of 2023, against a contraction of 2.0% as per a median of forecasts by economists and an initial reading of 1.8%.
Further, Japan's real wages shrank for the 10th straight month in October, data released Monday showed. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a key barometer of consumer purchasing power, fell 0.7% in October on year, slower than a revised 1.3% contraction in September.
The pound sterling fell 0.1% against the US dollar. An industry report showed the UK jobs market remained weak last month in the run-up to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' budget on Nov. 26. The Australian dollar fell 0.1% ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy outcome Tuesday. The central bank is expected to hold its cash rate at 3.60% and keep it there through 2026.
The dollar index remained broadly soft ahead of an expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Fed funds futures are pricing an 87.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 1600 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.95, down from 98.99 Friday and 99.07 Thursday. The index hit a low of 98.79 during the day. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Pares losses as exporters sell dollars; FX outflows weigh
| AT 1210 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.1400 | 90.0625 | 90.0500 | 90.2600 | 89.9800 |
MUMBAI – The rupee pared some of its early losses against the dollar as banks stepped in to sell dollars on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the relatively higher dollar-rupee rates, dealers said. The rupee hit a low of 90.2600 earlier in the day.
"Exporters are active in the market. Forward premiums are also high, so it makes sense for them to book at these levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium has gained over 30 basis points so far this month.
Some dealers speculated the Reserve Bank of India may have sold the greenback around 90.26 a dollar, to prevent further losses in the Indian unit. The Indian unit was weighed down by dollar purchases for foreign fund outflows from corporates and importers, dealers said. Importers bought dollars on expectation of further depreciation in the rupee, after it fell 0.6% against the dollar last week, they said.
Further, banks purchased dollars immediately after open in order to take advantage of arbitrage opportunity with the non-deliverable forwards rates, which also exerted pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. "90.30 has been holding for now and I think it will hold for the rest of the day. We are seeing trading play out on both sides," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Premiums jump on fwd dollar buys for onshore-offshore arbitrage
| AT 1135 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.1750 | 90.0625 | 90.0500 | 90.2600 | 89.9800 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 227.97 | 226.29 | 229.45 | 225.31 | 220.37 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium jumped across tenures as some banks purchased dollars for forward delivery, to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between the onshore forwards and offshore non-deliverable forwards rates, dealers said. "Spot rate (dollar-rupee) has moved higher, so people are booking offshore rates now," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
Premiums also gained as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear a further fall in the rupee, dealers said. Last week, the rupee depreciated 0.6% against the dollar and hit a record low of 90.4225. On Monday, the Indian currency fell owing to dollar buys for foreign fund outflows from corporates and importers, dealers said.
However, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, noting the relatively higher levels, which limited gains for the premiums, dealers said. The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium has gained over 30 basis points so far this month.
Market participants now await the US Federal Open Market Committee's decision Wednesday, where it is expected cut rates by 25 basis points. They will also watch out for policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the interest rate path ahead.
At 1135 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.53%, up from 2.45% Friday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 227.97 paise, against Friday's close of 220.37 paise. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Dec 8
MUMBAI – At 1050 IST, the rupee was at 90.2475 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.0625 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.9800 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 90.80 | 90.50 | 89.80 | 89.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.00 | 90.80 | 89.70 | 89.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.50 | 90.30 | 89.50 | 89.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.80 | 90.50 | 89.70 | 89.10 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Falls as banks buy dollars for importers, likely FX outflows
| AT 0934 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.0825 | 90.0625 | 90.0500 | 90.1075 | 89.9800 |
MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Monday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who fear a further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. Last week, the Indian currency depreciated 0.6% against the dollar and hit a record low of 90.4225 a dollar amid a prolonged delay in the India-US trade deal and subdued foreign portfolio inflows.
"The rupee is going to be under pressure because buy (dollars) on dips (in dollar-rupee) sentiment is there after the sharp fall we have seen recently," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think rupee will eventually go to levels like 90.40-90.50 (a dollar) in some time if Reserve Bank of India remains away from the market."
Further, some dealers said banks bought dollars, likely for foreign fund outflows from an Indian corporate, which also weighed on the Indian unit. Meanwhile, a broadly softer dollar index ahead of an expected rate cut at the Federal Reserve's policy decision Wednesday, limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said.
Fed funds futures are pricing an 88.5% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 0934 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.90, down from 98.99 Friday and 99.07 Thursday. Market participants will also watch out for policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the interest rate path ahead.
"I think things may change considerably in favour of rupee if Powell's comments or Fed's projections are on the dovish side," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We may see rupee rising towards 89.50."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.80 and 90.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as Fed decision awaited; Indonesian rupiah down
MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar Monday ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee's decision Wednesday, where it is expected cut rates by 25 basis points. Market participants will also watch out for policymakers' voting pattern over the decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the interest rate path ahead.
The dollar index remained broadly weak ahead of an expected rate cut at the Fed's policy decision, providing some support to the Asian units. Fed funds futures are pricing in an 88.5% probability of a 25-bps cut at the Fed's meeting this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.92, down from 98.99 Friday and 99.07 Thursday. Both the Taiwan dollar and the South Korean won rose 0.3% against the dollar.
Meanwhile, data released Friday showed US personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.3% September after gaining 0.3% in August. In the 12 months through September, the PCE Price Index rose 2.8?ter rising 2.7% in August. Both were in line with forecasts.
The Chinese yuan was flat ahead of the country's trade data, due later in the day. Economists polled by Reuters see China's exports in November rising 3.8% from a year earlier, reversing the 1.1% contraction in October. Imports are expected to increase 3% in the same period, up from 1% the month before.
The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2% against the dollar. The death toll in Indonesia from recent flooding has crossed 900, with hundreds still missing, reports said. The Indonesia floods are one of the several extreme weather events to hit Asia in recent weeks, with the total death toll in Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam approaching 2,000. The Malaysian ringgit rose 0.1% against the dollar.
The Philippines peso was flat ahead of the the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' monetary policy decision on Thursday. A slower growth outlook for the Philippines raises the chances of another policy rate cut at a policy review next week, the central bank governor said last week. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Dec 8
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.25 | 89.80 |
| State-owned bank | 90.20 | 89.80 |
| Foreign bank | 90.30 | 89.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.05 | 89.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.20 | 89.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.17 | 89.67 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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