More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are expected to surge to a record $4,600–$4,800 per ounce in calendar 2026, driven by aggressive central bank purchases, expectations of US interest rate cuts, persistent inflation and rising concerns over the US fiscal outlook, according to Ventura Securities.

 

Expectation of prolonged inflation, deteriorating US fiscal position, growing trade frictions, and slowing growth in the US and China are expected to underpin gold prices through 2026, Ventura said in a report Thursday. The brokerage expects the US Federal Reserve to deliver up to 75 basis points of rate cuts, which could support gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Lower US rates are also likely to weaken the dollar, further supporting prices, it said.

 

Gold has already made fresh highs in nine consecutive quarters, including the fourth quarter of 2025, underlining the strength of the ongoing bull run, it said. After hitting a record high of $4,398 on Oct. 20, gold corrected nearly 11% to a low of $3,891 on Oct. 28, before rebounding to around $4,299 in December, a six-week high, on expectations of a Fed rate cut. At 1752 IST, the most active February gold contract on COMEX was trading at $4,230.8 per ounce. 

 

Despite a recent uptick in US Treasury yields, Ventura said long-term demand for gold remains intact, with the latest pullback reflecting profit-taking rather than a reversal in sentiment. "This is consolidation, not liquidation. Dips should offer opportunities to accumulate," it said. Ventura sees near-term support around $4,200 and at $4,056, while resistance is seen at $4,255–$4,300. A break above these levels could push prices toward $4,381–$4,441, it added.

 

The brokerage said central banks are now holding gold as the second-largest reserve asset globally. Global gold ETF holdings have risen to a three-year high, while COMEX inventories have dropped around 20% from their peak, it said.

 

In India, gold prices remain about 15?ove Dubai levels due to import duties and a weak rupee, encouraging cross-border bullion flows. Ventura said that as prices rise, the risk of periodic corrections also increases. Fewer-than-expected Fed rate cuts or easing geopolitical tensions could trigger pullbacks, it said.

 

The brokerage said the gold bull run is now a decade old, while silver's rally has lasted about five-and-a-half years, raising the risk of a future downturn given the cyclical nature of commodity markets.

 

Key drivers for further upside include sustained central bank buying, rising ETF inflows, the US debt burden exceeding $38 trillion, falling real yields, a weaker dollar, fragile global equity markets and concerns over ballooning fiscal deficits across major economies, Ventura said.  End

 

Reported by Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.