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Informist, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

By Rati Chaphekar

MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply down against the dollar Friday as banks persistently bought dollars for importers and oil marketing companies, dealers said. The losses to the Indian unit were limited as some public-sector banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. 

"Volume in the currency market was higher than usual," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. "There was some panic buying by importers, as everyone thought the rupee might cross 89.50 (a dollar) today (Friday)."

After moving in a range of 11 paise during the day, the rupee ended at 89.4575 a dollar, sharply down from 89.3050 Thursday and from a spitting distance from its lifetime low of 89.4950 a dollar.

The rupee opened sharply lower against the dollar, weighed down by aggressive dollar demand from importers and oil marketing companies to meet their month-end payment needs. However, some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, preventing the rupee from breaching its lifetime low. 

The Indian unit had hovered around the 89.20-89.25 range since Monday, supported by the central bank. Even on Friday, the central bank's active dollar sales prevented the rupee from breaching its record low of 89.4950 a dollar, hit on Nov. 21. According to the RBI bulletin, the central bank sold a net $7.91 billion in the foreign exchange market in September to curb the rupee's decline. The number was likely higher in October when the domestic unit came under increased pressure, dealers said. Friday, the central bank sold around $800 million to $1 billion in the market to prevent a runaway depreciation in the rupee, dealers said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index rose in European trade despite expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut gaining strength. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December, up from 35% last week. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.71, higher than 99.53 Thursday and 99.56 Wednesday.

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and on expectation of a further depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. Some dealers also speculated that the central bank sold dollars for forward delivery, which limited the rise in the premium.

Market participants await the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee and the US Federal Open Market Committee on Dec. 5 and Dec. 10, respectively. Market participants expect both central banks to cut their key benchmark policy interest rate.

The premium also rose, tracking the recent fall in US Treasury yields, as market participants continued to price in the US Federal Reserve's December rate cut, dealers said. US Treasuries were not traded on Thursday as US markets were closed for Thanksgiving.

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.23%, up from 2.20% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 197.63 paise, against Thursday's close of 196.56 paise.

OUTLOOK

Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and Asian currencies, dealers said. Most dealers expect the RBI to continue intervening actively in the currency market to protect the rupee from falling to a lifetime low and testing the psychologically-crucial 90-per-dollar mark.

Market participants will continue to watch developments related to the India-US trade deal talks. "With no clear progress on the India–US trade deal and uncertainty still dominating sentiment, rupee weakness may continue toward the 90.00 mark," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president, commodity and currency research, LKP Securities, said in a note. "Immediate resistance for the rupee now stands at 89.20, while the bias remains firmly on the downside."

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, which would keep the downward pressure on the local currency intact. The rupee is expected to move in a range of 89.00 to 89.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the rupee is pegged at 89.00 per dollar and support at 89.50.

India Rupee - World FX: Yen steady even after strong econ data; euro down

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen was steady against the US dollar. Data released Friday showed consumer price index in Tokyo stayed well above the central bank's 2% target in November as companies continued to pass on rising costs mainly for food. Tokyo's CPI inflation is one of the key metrics that Bank of Japan tracks for its interest rate decisions. The Tokyo core CPI inflation rose 2.8% in November from a year earlier, steady from October and roughly matching a median market forecast of 2.7%, reinforcing the case for a near-term interest rate hike.

The euro fell 0.1% against the greenback even after European Central Bank policymaker Martins Kazaks Thursday said it is too early for the European Central Bank to discuss another interest rate cut as inflation in the euro zone might still turn out higher than expected. With the next European Central Bank meeting on Dec. 18, Kazaks said this was not the right time to cut borrowing costs as underlying inflation remained well above 2% and there were risks in both directions.

Meanwhile, the dollar index recovered slightly even though dealers continue to price in a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve at its December meeting, dealers said. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1405 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.69, higher than 99.53 Thursday and 99.56 Wednesday.

Tracking the rise of the dollar index, the pound sterling fell 0.2% against the greenback while the Swiss franc fell 0.1%. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand fell 0.2% and 0.3% against the dollar, respectively.  (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Premium rises as importers buy fwd dlrs; RBI sales speculated

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery, likely on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower levels and on expectation of a depreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. Some dealers also speculated that the central bank sold dollars for forward delivery which limited the rise in the premium.

Market participants also await the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee and the US Federal Open Market Committee next month, dealers said. The US FOMC's December meeting outcome is due on Dec. 10 and the RBI's MPC outcome is due on Dec. 5, where both the central banks are expected to cut their key benchmark policy interest rate.

The premium also rose tracking the fall in US treasury yields for the past few days as market participants continued to price in the rate cut in December by the US Federal Reserve, dealers said. US Treasury yields were not traded Thursday as markets were closed on account of Thanksgiving. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.00% Wednesday from 4.01% Thursday.   

At 1305 IST, the one-year exact period dollar/rupee forward premium was 2.23%, up from 2.20% Thursday. On an absolute basis, the premium was 199.13 paise, against Thursday's close of 196.56 paise. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: RBI's dollar sales avert breach of record low

MUMBAI – The rupee fell sharply against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars for importers and oil marketing companies, dealers said. Some state-owned banks sold dollars, most likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the rupee from breaching its lifetime low, dealers said. 

"Looks like the rupee might test 89.50 (a dollar) anytime in the day," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "However, the central bank has put a strong support at 89.48 (a dollar), preventing any volatality."

The Indian unit has hovered around 89.20-89.25 a dollar level since Monday due to strong support by the central bank. Even Friday, active dollar sales by the central bank prevented the rupee from breaching its record low level of 89.4950 a dollar hit on Nov. 21. According to the RBI bulletin, the apex bank sold a net $7.91 billion in the foreign exchange market in September to curb the fall of the rupee. The number was likely higher in October when the domestic unit came under increased pressure, dealers said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index recovered slightly despite expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve gaining strength. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 1235 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.66, higher than 99.53 Thursday and 99.56 Wednesday.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.00 and 89.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.50 a dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Nov 28

MUMBAI – At 1237 IST, the rupee was at 89.4500 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 89.4050 a dollar, against the previous close of 89.3050 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee: Falls as banks buy dollars for importers; RBI action eyed

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar Friday, weighed down by aggressive dollar demand from importers, dealers said. Banks bought dollars for importers and oil marketing companies that wanted to meet their month-end payment demands, dealers said. 

"There is no support from the central bank, and dollar demand is in full swing," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If this trend continues, the rupee might easily fall below 89.50 (a dollar) soon." Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales if the rupee comes under further pressure and approaches its lifetime low level of 89.4950 hit on Nov. 21. The Indian unit has hovered around 89.20-89.25 a dollar level since Monday.

Meanwhile, the dollar index recovered slightly despite expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve gaining strength. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week. At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.61, higher than 99.53 Thursday and 99.56 Wednesday.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 88.80 and 89.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 89.30 a dollar. (Rati Chaphekar)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed as traders await FOMC decision; yuan steady

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved a mixed note Friday as market participants await the US Federal Reserve's rate cut decision at its December meeting. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 35% last week.

At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.60, higher than 99.53 Thursday and 99.56 Wednesday. Tracking the uptick in dollar index, the Taiwanese dollar and the Indonesian rupiah fell 0.1% against the greenback and the South Korean won fell 0.2%. 

The Chinese yuan traded steady against the greenback. Data released Thursday showed China's industrial profits contracted in October, after double-digit growth in the previous two months. Industrial profits at China's industrial firms declined 5.5% on year in October, after jumping 21.6% in September and 20.4% in August.

The Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht rose 0.1% against the dollar, while the Philippine peso traded steady.  (Rati Chaphekar) 

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Nov 28

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll: 

(Rati Chaphekar)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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