Informist Poll
India IIP growth seen easing to 4-month low of 2.9% in Oct
This story was originally published at 15:04 IST on 27 November 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial sector production likely moderated in October largely because of a statistical effect of an unfavourable base, according to economists. Year-on-year factory output growth, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, is seen at a four-month low of 2.9% in October, according to an Informist poll of 11 economists.
The output rose 4.0% in September and 3.7% in October last year. Estimates in the poll ranged from 0.9% to 4.1%. The statistics ministry will release IIP data for October at 1600 IST Friday.
The base effect in October is such that if the overall index remains unchanged from September, IIP growth will fall to 1.7%. The general index had risen 2.3% on month in October 2024, resulting in an unfavourable base effect this time. At 2.9% on-year growth in October, the index would rise 1.2% from September, the highest sequential growth in three months.
Most high-frequency indicators reflected slower factory output growth in October. The growth in output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of IIP, was flat on year in October against a growth of 3.3% in September.
The number of e-way bills generated in October rose at the slowest pace in three years at 8.2% against a 21% growth in September. Vehicle production fell 2.8% on year in October compared to a rise of 10.8% on year in September.
Sequentially, the core sector output rose 1.2% in October, the highest increase in five months. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 59.2 in October from a four-month low of 57.7 in September.
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in October:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| Sunidhi Securities | 0.9% |
| India Ratings and Research | 2.0% |
| Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. | 2.5% |
| ICICI Bank | 2.5% |
| Moody's Analytics | 2.5% |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 2.9% |
| ICRA | 3.0% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 3.0% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 3.5% |
| Capital Economics | 3.6% |
| ANZ Bank | 4.1% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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